In August 1995, in the skies over Afghanistan, a Taliban MiG-21 intercepted a Il-76 transport plane owned by the Russian company Airstan. The Russian plane was carrying a large amount of weaponry intended for anti-Taliban forces. The Il-76 was forced to land at the Taliban-controlled Khanandar International Airport, and the crew of seven Russian nationals were taken hostage and used by the Taliban as bargaining chips to secure the release of Afghans allegedly held by the Russian government.
However, the Russians denied holding any Afghans prisoner, and negotiations broke down, even with US Senator Hank Brown (R - CO) serving as mediator. Eventually, Brown was able to get the Taliban to allow the hostages access to their plane for maintenance. Because of this, the crew was eventually able to use their plane to escape in August 1996, overpowering their guards and flying the Il-76 to safety in the UAE.
Now, what if the Russians had refused to land and the Taliban pilot had shot them down, or if the Taliban had chosen to execute the crew after negotiations broke down?
Would Russia respond? If so, how? I assume they wouldn't be willing to wage a second Afghan war over seven citizens, seeing as by this point they were already bogged down in Chechnya, and going into Afghanistan again only six years after getting out of Afghanistan probably wouldn't be too popular. Furthermore, I'm not sure if all the Central Asian nations would freely grant Russian ground forces passage into Afghanistan, and the Russian Armed Forces were looking pretty shabby by the mid-90s, what with downsizing and lack of morale and all.
I would guess that if the Russians responded, it would be by increasing their support for anti-Taliban forces in the Afghan Civil War, and possibly by launching limited strikes on Taliban targets - maybe even limited to the Khanandar Airport.
Your thoughts?