WI: Airstan Shootdown

In August 1995, in the skies over Afghanistan, a Taliban MiG-21 intercepted a Il-76 transport plane owned by the Russian company Airstan. The Russian plane was carrying a large amount of weaponry intended for anti-Taliban forces. The Il-76 was forced to land at the Taliban-controlled Khanandar International Airport, and the crew of seven Russian nationals were taken hostage and used by the Taliban as bargaining chips to secure the release of Afghans allegedly held by the Russian government.

However, the Russians denied holding any Afghans prisoner, and negotiations broke down, even with US Senator Hank Brown (R - CO) serving as mediator. Eventually, Brown was able to get the Taliban to allow the hostages access to their plane for maintenance. Because of this, the crew was eventually able to use their plane to escape in August 1996, overpowering their guards and flying the Il-76 to safety in the UAE.

Now, what if the Russians had refused to land and the Taliban pilot had shot them down, or if the Taliban had chosen to execute the crew after negotiations broke down?

Would Russia respond? If so, how? I assume they wouldn't be willing to wage a second Afghan war over seven citizens, seeing as by this point they were already bogged down in Chechnya, and going into Afghanistan again only six years after getting out of Afghanistan probably wouldn't be too popular. Furthermore, I'm not sure if all the Central Asian nations would freely grant Russian ground forces passage into Afghanistan, and the Russian Armed Forces were looking pretty shabby by the mid-90s, what with downsizing and lack of morale and all.

I would guess that if the Russians responded, it would be by increasing their support for anti-Taliban forces in the Afghan Civil War, and possibly by launching limited strikes on Taliban targets - maybe even limited to the Khanandar Airport.

Your thoughts?
 
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Archibald

Banned
I never realized those fucking talebans ever had an air force.
By 1996 wasn't russia bogged down in Chechenya ? plus their conventional forces hit rock bottom, with catastrophic reliability rates.
 
I never realized those fucking talebans ever had an air force.

The Afghan Air Force evidently got divied up between the various factions of the Afghan Civil War after the Soviet withdrawal and collapse of the DRA. From what little I can find, the Taliban possessed roughly 15 fighter aircraft by 2001 (5 MiG-21s and 10 SU-22s), along with an assorted mix of transports and helicopters. All of which were probably poorly maintained and almost certainly blown up on the ground after 9/11.


By 1996 wasn't russia bogged down in Chechenya ? plus their conventional forces hit rock bottom, with catastrophic reliability rates.

Yes and yes, hence why I don't think any large-scale military operation would be undertaken in response. At most, perhaps a strike from Russian-based bombers overflying Central Asia.
 

Archibald

Banned
Send the Tu-160 Blackjacks to bomb the shit out of the islamists (as Putin did in Syria). Or Tu-26 Backfires, quite smaller, but there were hundreds of them in service by 1991, even Yeltsin Russia should be able to scrap the bottom of the barrel and send a dozen of them in a raid.
 
Send the Tu-160 Blackjacks to bomb the shit out of the islamists (as Putin did in Syria).

Blackjacks are missile-only and (from what I've read) only had nuclear missiles (at least in full service). So no go, as attractive an aircraft as it is.

Or Tu-26 Backfires, quite smaller, but there were hundreds of them in service by 1991, even Yeltsin Russia should be able to scrap the bottom of the barrel and send a dozen of them in a raid.

Russia and the ex-SSRs did some airstrikes in Afghanistan OTL.
 
Russia and the ex-SSRs did some airstrikes in Afghanistan OTL.

Seriously? Hadn't known about that; only thing I could find on Russian strikes in Afghanistan post-Soviet - Afghan War was that they threatened to hit Taliban targets in May 2000 due to Taliban support for the Chechens but ultimately chose not to

https://www.rferl.org/a/1347124.html

Amnesty International Condemns Russian Threats
May 26, 2000

Amnesty International has released a public statement concerning Russia's threats to use preventive air strikes against Afghanistan, whose Taliban regime, as the Kremlin has said, provides the training ground for the Chechen fighters.

Amnesty International suggested that "the warning evokes memories of massive human rights violations during the Soviet military intervention in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989 which resulted in the deaths of thousands of defenseless women, men and children and an exodus of one fifth of the population. Russia's aerial bombing of Chechnya, which included the targeting of civilian convoys marked with white flags, demonstrates a continuing disregard for civilian life."

In its statement, the international human rights organization said it is "also concerned that the Russian threats might give further excuses to some of the countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States to engage in human rights violations under the pretext of national security." Amnesty International especially mentions Uzbekistan in this respect.

Amnesty International urges the Russian authorities "to refrain from any military activity that could result - as has done in the past - in the indiscriminate killing of non-combatants and other human rights violations."

Amnesty International further alerts that "such statements by Russian authorities should be a warning to the international community that Russian military action of the type which was carried out in Chechnya and which resulted in massive human rights violations there could be repeated elsewhere. It is therefore imperative that the international community - members of the United Nations and the Council of Europe - remind the Russian authorities of their responsibilities not to engage in any military activity that would cause human rights violations. (Amnesty International)

That might be worth another thread, there...
 
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