WI/AHC - Wanked Assyrian state and reduced Kurdistan

In the OTL the Assyrian population was decimated over time from the 14th century under Timur up to the Assyrian genocide under the Ottomans and their Kurdish allies until 1920.

Assuming Timur and other events are butterflied away, roughly how numerous is the Assyrian population likely to be?

Additionally with a potentially more numerous Assyrian population allowing for an Assyrian state to be carved out of Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran. How much of Iraq and Iran is this ATL Kurdistan likely to cover compared to OTL?
 
The OTL present day Assyrian population is around 2-4 million, while the Kurdish population is around 30-46 million.

In such an ATL scenario to how would the Assyrian and Kurdish populations differ numerically speaking compared to OTL?
 
Considering the losses incurred, the population of the Syriac populace in Iraq would certainly be higher. However, their birth rate will likely remain low enough to never reach a majority within northern Iraq in any tl wherein Islamic powers remain dominant. This phenomena of lowered birth rates for non Muslim religious entities within the Islamic world is documented and self evident.
 
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Considering the losses incurred, the population of the Syriac populace in Iraq would certainly be higher. However, their birth rate will likely remain low enough to never reach a majority within northern Iraq in any tl wherein Islamic powers remain dominant. This phenomena of lowered birth rates for non Muslim religious entities within the Islamic world is documented and self evident.

Is there a known reason for this? Cost of Children vs Cost of Higher taxes?
 
Any scholarly work on that? As a counter-example, the Christian population in Indonesia is growing faster than the Muslim one.

This is very modern and within a realm that does not implement the Shar’i codes to a great enough degree. Thus, it is an invalid example. As well, this particular sub section of the forum, is devoted to periods prior to 1900; modern evangelism occurs through vast technological advances, european colonialism and total hegemony of US interests on a world scale. These criteria do not exist for the rest of the existence of Islam. It should also be understood that Indonesian evangelism primarily occurs on islands never islamized; such as Nias or amongst traditional religious groups on existing Muslim islands, such as formerly traditional faith practitioners in Sulawesi.

Regarding the scholarly work on this; there is no work in particular that I had in mind. However, nearly any work notes these trends when discussing the Shar’i codes and the Dhinmi population. Islamicay, there are numerous instances wherein ulema state tbe purpose of a certain law within Sharia is to limit growth of said religion or to shame said religion as an inspiration for their youth to convert to Islam. These issues are frankly clear cut.
 
This is very modern and within a realm that does not implement the Shar’i codes to a great enough degree. Thus, it is an invalid example.
There is significant evidence that the Christian proportion of the population of Ottoman Syria in 1800 was higher than the Christian population of the same region three hundred years ago, especially in urban settings. Between 1640 and 1740, for example, the Christian population of Aleppo more than tripled while the Muslim population remained the same. What do you have to say about that?
 
There is significant evidence that the Christian proportion of the population of Ottoman Syria in 1800 was higher than the Christian population of the same region three hundred years ago, especially in urban settings. Between 1640 and 1740, for example, the Christian population of Aleppo more than tripled while the Muslim population remained the same. What do you have to say about that?
I'd have my doubts about the Christian population being bigger overall, what is this significant evidence?
 
I'd have my doubts about the Christian population being bigger overall, what is this significant evidence?
Ottoman jizya census records. The 1640 census has 2,500 Christians in Aleppo, rising to 5,391 in 1695 and 8,120 in 1740, before stabilizing (7,213 in 1756) and then becoming meaningless as demographic data due to local corruption in the Aleppo government (more and more Christians were illegally being exempted from the jizya).
 
There is significant evidence that the Christian proportion of the population of Ottoman Syria in 1800 was higher than the Christian population of the same region three hundred years ago, especially in urban settings. Between 1640 and 1740, for example, the Christian population of Aleppo more than tripled while the Muslim population remained the same. What do you have to say about that?

To begin, it should be discussed where these Christian came from. Any skilled historian or analyst who notices a trend such as ‘Christian population increased threefold, yet Muslim population experiences no change,’ would realize that this would be an unlikely occurrence for one group to have little natural growth and another to have thrice fold growth naturally. More than likely, this growth occurred in Aleppo by the in migration of rural Christian populaces to urban settings.

This could be explained by growth of rural Islamic land growth favored by state actors, arrival of Arab tribes, etc... Further, there is possibility of migration from other regions to Shams and or unique instances of benign neglect on the part of local powers in Shams, that do not exist in Iraq. Do note, the communal aspect of Syria could differ radically from Iraq, Iran, Egypt, etc....
 
Ottoman jizya census records. The 1640 census has 2,500 Christians in Aleppo, rising to 5,391 in 1695 and 8,120 in 1740, before stabilizing (7,213 in 1756) and then becoming meaningless as demographic data due to local corruption in the Aleppo government (more and more Christians were illegally being exempted from the jizya).

Interesting, does that not answer to a great degree some of the issue? Neglect on part of the state officials to observe Shar’i laws designed to limit the non Muslim population. As well, this would be coupled with a local Islamic population that did not communally move to limit this or that or enforce certain restrictions.

Regarding the concept of reading jizya records, this is statistics made by already admittedly corrupt and inept officials during periods low statistical skills. It is doubtful that statistics would be correct in this instance.
 
Ottoman jizya census records. The 1640 census has 2,500 Christians in Aleppo, rising to 5,391 in 1695 and 8,120 in 1740, before stabilizing (7,213 in 1756) and then becoming meaningless as demographic data due to local corruption in the Aleppo government (more and more Christians were illegally being exempted from the jizya).
Mhh, those seem only urban results, I thought we had results for the whole province.
 
There is significant evidence that the Christian proportion of the population of Ottoman Syria in 1800 was higher than the Christian population of the same region three hundred years ago, especially in urban settings. Between 1640 and 1740, for example, the Christian population of Aleppo more than tripled while the Muslim population remained the same. What do you have to say about that?
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This is mostly post-1700s phenomenas, Christians had contact with Industrializing Europe and had economy opportunity and better knowledge on health and sanitation, these act as counter to usual effect of dhimmi status. Most population growth can be attributed to reduction of baby and toddler death rates.
 
The Assyrian population today numbers around 2-4 million and was said to number 600 thousand to 1 million prior to WW2, with the Assyrian genocide killing around 150-300 thousand people. Depending on the figures it could potentially mean the Assyrian population would have doubled without the Genocide at most to growing by a further 500 thousand to a million at minimum.

Going further back and butterflying away the atrocities from Timur onwards, it is possible the ATL present day Assyrian population could have roughly numbered around 1/3 of the OTL Kurdish population at best. With the Assyrian population being numerous enough prior to the present day for an ATL Russian empire to take more of an interest in Upper Mesopotamia compared to OTL during its wars with the Ottomans and Persia along with a British mistrust of such an idea.
 
Honestly I agree with @John7755 يوحنا I don't see the Assyrians avoiding their percent of their population falling when under Islamic rule. The only way I could see them avoiding this,would be if the Kurds stayed more stubborn Yazidi and maybe was even able to establish semi-independent statelets in the region, this would place Assyrians and Armenians in a favored position as potential middlemen and making them less likely to be slaughtered in conflicts between the Muslims and Yazidis.

As for Syria I suspect the religious diversity of the region was what allowed the local Christians to do so well, as it kept the local Muslims at odds with each other.
 
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