WI/AHC: Two Term George Bush Sr.?
- Thread starter Dumanios
- Start date
The first idea is to have Ronald Reagan assassinated on March 30, 1981, 69 days into his presidency, meaning Vice President George H. W. Bush, is sworn in as the 41st President of the United States.
His first act as President is to have Secretary of State, Alexander Haig, resign due to his "in control" statement.
President Bush, continues the economic policies promoted by his former predecessor known known as Bushanomics (OTL Reaganomics) this is seen as the best plan when the unemployment rate declined from 7.5% to 5.4%.
He is re-elected to a seconded term in a landslide in 1984, his first election, however due to the Twenty-second Amendment, this would be his final term in office.
Good question
His fatal error was to say.
Then came Bush's 1990 agreement to raise taxes.
next to that Bush fainted after vomiting at a banquet hosted by the Prime Minister of Japan, life on Japanese TV
what gave wrong impression that he had health problems.
Then came Democrat Bill Clinton with his youthful image
and also the campaign of H. Ross Perot who voter republicans voter away from Bush
had Perot not enter the race, Bush could have maximum around 56.36% of the votes. against 43.01% of Clinton
or narrow victory like his Son vs Al Gore...
His fatal error was to say.
Then came Bush's 1990 agreement to raise taxes.
next to that Bush fainted after vomiting at a banquet hosted by the Prime Minister of Japan, life on Japanese TV
what gave wrong impression that he had health problems.
Then came Democrat Bill Clinton with his youthful image
and also the campaign of H. Ross Perot who voter republicans voter away from Bush
had Perot not enter the race, Bush could have maximum around 56.36% of the votes. against 43.01% of Clinton
or narrow victory like his Son vs Al Gore...
In 1990, Bush meets one of his most vocal opponents, Ross Perot, in person. After this conversation, Bush decides that maybe normalization of Vietnam is a worthwhile venture. He taps Perot as Foreign Minister to Vietnam where he will be working during the 1992 election. With the election in the midst of a recession, Bush is able to cling to the Presidency on the strength of incumbency alone. He'd probably have the dubious honor of being one of those Presidents to get less electoral votes in their re-election campaigns and the Democrats keep Congress for another decade.
Realpolitik
Banned
Having him not make that idiotic pledge is a start, and he needs to have more of an active domestic concern. Get Ross Perot and Pat Buchanan away from the race. Come up with a plan, and tell it to the people. Try to buy off moderate Democrats, co-opt Clinton voters, state that you are interested in venturing to "new places" with stuff like health care and are far more likely to get it done-the far-right will not go to Clinton any more than they will McGovern twenty years earlier. You also have Reagan. Use him if people doubt your conservative credentials.
1992, the campaigning situation changed dramatically with the end of the Cold War, and he needs to realize this. Show that you care. Go out in public, show that you are working on the economy. And don't seem feeble compared to your younger opponent.
Don't bother trying to "get" Clinton, tempting as that is-the man is an absorption device for character blows and revels in the media attention. The key is to marginalize rather than attack. Instead, keep the discussion focused on accomplishments and concrete facts. You are the incumbent.
I'd love to see him tackle the post Cold War world in the 90s. Foreign policy will be a lot more interesting.
1992, the campaigning situation changed dramatically with the end of the Cold War, and he needs to realize this. Show that you care. Go out in public, show that you are working on the economy. And don't seem feeble compared to your younger opponent.
Don't bother trying to "get" Clinton, tempting as that is-the man is an absorption device for character blows and revels in the media attention. The key is to marginalize rather than attack. Instead, keep the discussion focused on accomplishments and concrete facts. You are the incumbent.
I'd love to see him tackle the post Cold War world in the 90s. Foreign policy will be a lot more interesting.
Realpolitik
Banned
Another foreign policy coup won't help him-if that were the case, Bush would have won in a landslide. The people don't care about foreign policy anymore-the national trend for isolationism and smooth feelings has come back with the fall of the Soviet Union. He needs to emphasize the domestic and show that if they stick with him, it'll be better than with this random guy.
Oh, sorry, I suppose I wasn't clear. I don't really care about another foreign policy coup as being helpful as far as the electorate was concerned. Perot apparently was really into normalization of relations with Vietnam, and I figured it was a good enough reason to ship Perot out of the way when the election rolls around preventing his third party run. If Bush successfully communicates a plan for the economy, he probably wins by equivalent margins to Obama. If he doesn't, I still think he wins the popular vote, but it'll be a much closer affair.
Realpolitik
Banned
Oh, yeah. Sorry about that.
If that's true, than hell yes. It's probably something Bush Senior would do in his second term anyway.
Oh, yeah. Sorry about that.
If that's true, than hell yes. It's probably something Bush Senior would do in his second term anyway.
It must be true, I read it on wikipedia when researching a potential series of TLIAD's inspired by Allan Litchman's Keys to the White House.
Anyway, I used the 2000 election as inspiration here, and used spreadsheet magic to simulate an election where Bush runs a real perfunctory campaign and wins the popular vote by the same margin that Al Gore did.
Bush/Quayle: 275 - 48.4%
Clinton/Gore: 263 - 47.9%
Wisconsin went to Bush by about 50K votes and Colorado by about 25K votes. Not huge numbers, but it's down to about 1% in those states.
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Gaius Julius Magnus
Gone Fishin'
So here's a question. If Bush wins in '92 does the Republican Revolution happen '94, Bush's six-year midterm and get a Republican Congress or does the house stay in Democratic hands?
jahenders
Banned
3 main things contributed to Bush's defeat:
1) Pledging, "No new taxes" and then breaking that pledge. If he hadn't said this, but still agreed to a tax increase, it'd be bad, but not AS bad. Alternately, he could reject the tax increase and hold to his pledge.
2) Perot in the race. If he engages Perot early, listens to him, and gets him to join the team, instead of running, Bush likely wins. Alternately, if Perot IS in the race, but Bush sees that early and campaigns against him, as well as Clinton, he might reduce the percentage that Perot takes.
3) The media's love affair with Bill and his youth. Not much Bush could do about this except outreach and trying to stay in touch.
If you take away 2 of those things, Bush definitely wins. Take away 1, possibly.
1) Pledging, "No new taxes" and then breaking that pledge. If he hadn't said this, but still agreed to a tax increase, it'd be bad, but not AS bad. Alternately, he could reject the tax increase and hold to his pledge.
2) Perot in the race. If he engages Perot early, listens to him, and gets him to join the team, instead of running, Bush likely wins. Alternately, if Perot IS in the race, but Bush sees that early and campaigns against him, as well as Clinton, he might reduce the percentage that Perot takes.
3) The media's love affair with Bill and his youth. Not much Bush could do about this except outreach and trying to stay in touch.
If you take away 2 of those things, Bush definitely wins. Take away 1, possibly.
Almost certainly not. It's hard enough for an incumbent President to prevent a blowout against their party in their 6th year, let alone trying to make gains.
Realpolitik
Banned
Absolutely not. The 94 Revolution is butterflied. In fact, if he chose to do so, Bush I might be able to get more done on Capitol Hill in terms of stuff like health care than Clinton could, even if he didn't have as much vision in domestic policy.
This could lead to more butterflies than people think. New Presidential lineup is just the beginning.
Need a better economy. Although the recession was technically over in 1991, there was a lingering malaise well into 1992. Hence Clinton's "Its the economy stupid." Add in the unfortunate visit to the grocery store, which makes him look out of touch and he had problems. Have James Baker step back from Sec State to run his campaign or have Lee Atwater not pass away would help. I think Baker could have done it himself and he did late in the campaign but by then it was too late.
As many have said...avoid the read my lips pledge...
Have Hilary divorce Bill during the campaign
Have Hilary divorce Bill during the campaign
LordKalvert
Banned
I do not see any hope that America would have elected that pathological liar to a second term. He was hated and scorned by almost every facet of the Republican party by the time he left office and it wasn't just his "Read my lips" lie.
David Souter was a big part of it as well
David Souter was a big part of it as well