WI/AHC: Surviving Yugoslavia

Prerequisites for survival of Yugoslavia

*Stronger central authority
*Economic prosperity - better to keep it together than fall apart
*Reign in the Serbs, Make Milosevic or equivalent out of politics or dead
*Greater alienation from the Soviet Union, a true 'us vs. them' mentality
 

abc123

Banned
*Stronger central authority
*Economic prosperity - better to keep it together than fall apart
*Reign in the Serbs, Make Milosevic or equivalent out of politics or dead
*Greater alienation from the Soviet Union, a true 'us vs. them' mentality

Not quite.

You have to understand that only the Serbs wanted stronger central authority in Yugoslavia because only they ( being the most numerous nation ) had chance to use that authority in their own advantage. So, because stronger central authority is good only for Serbs, all other nations don't want that, they want just the opposite, as weak central authority as possible- even a confederation. If Serbs wanted a confederation, Yugoslavia would have never dissolved. But they didn't because with confederation they can't anymore have power over others in Yugoslavia.

If you want to reign in the Serbs, the best/only way is to have as weak central authority as possible.

If you kill Milošević, will you kill any other Serbian politician? As much as some people like to speak about 3 "guilty" men ( Milošević, Tuđman and Izetbegović ), all 3 of them just have been doeing what their nations predominantly wanted.

Soviet Union had allmost no influence on break up of Yugoslavia.
 
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abc123

Banned
Yes I'll give you that but there's a difference between being successful and winning top sporting events. I'm not saying that winning a World Cup would save it on it own but that it can be used for nationalistic purposes. That's what I would believe the nation would need. Either that or a greater threat to unify the people. It's hard to control an attempt to unify people if they don't have people to work against.

I don't think so. IIRC, Yugoslavia won World Championship in 1987 ( under-21 ) and European Championship in 1978 ( under 20 ) but it didn't save her.

My father has once told me about a game where Yugoslavia played against Germany, IN YUGOSLAVIA ( in Croatia or Mostar in BiH, I don't recall now ), where spectators mostly cheered FOR GERMANY. Something like if English national selection plays in Scotland.
 
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abc123

Banned
, a federal parliament that had no direct federal elections,.

It had "elections" for lower house.

BUT, comparing Yugoslavian federal parliament ( a rubberstamp body as in all communist countries ) with democratic parliaments has no sense.
 
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Not quite.

You have to understand that only the Serbs wanted stronger central authority in Yugoslavia because only they ( being the most numerous nation ) had chance to use that authority in their own advantage. So, because stronger central authority is good only for Serbs, all other nations don't want that, they want just the opposite, as weak central authority as possible- even a confederation. If Serbs wanted a confederation, Yugoslavia would have never dissolved. But they didn't because with confederation they can't anymore have power over others in Yugoslavia.

I am not sure a weaker central authority will be able to keep the country together if the Serbs as anxious for control as OTL. Do you believe the Serbs would ultimately accept a federation, and if not could a modified Yugoslavia exist minus Serbia?

If you want to reign in the Serbs, the best/only way is to have as weak central authority as possible.

Again, I think a stronger union is possible, perhaps by guaranteeing the rights and voice of the smaller nations with ultimate authority in the hands of a Senate-style body oriented to number of polities (adding Montenegro and Kosovo as full-fledged members of the Union might help) perhaps buffeted by a parliament based on population.

If you kill Milošević, will you kill any other Serbian politician? As much as some people like to speak about 3 "guilty" men ( Milošević, Tuđman and Izetbegović ), all 3 of them just have been doeing what their nations predominantly wanted.

Are you sure they were acting on behalf of their people or themselves? If they were behaving on behalf of their country, again could a Yugoslavia survive minus Serbia? If they are acting on behalf of themselves, however, then the nation is much more likely to survive with the Serbians as part of it.

Soviet Union had allmost no influence on break up of Yugoslavia.

Giving the Yugoslavs a common enemy could make them more united. Have the USSR push harder to reintegrate Belgrade into the Soviet Bloc and it could make a difference later on.
 
Milosevic and 90% of the other politicians in Yugoslavia's last years were products of their time and its mentalities. Many of them were cynical and self-serving, but all saw which way the wind of public opinion was blowing and made sure to at least vaguely follow it.

Strong central authority benefits the largest nation (Serbs) the most, so a weaker central authority should be more desirable. On the other hand, the internal borders of Yugoslavia were drawn up in a way which left massive populations of Serbs outside Serbia, without any autonomous provinces and such.
So, with weak central authority, the Serbs felt forcibly separated and vulnerable to the domination of others; Kosovo was especially responsible for fueling this mentality, while ethnic relations in Bosnia and Croatia were not as bad. Thus, for the Serbs, strengthening central authority was absolutely necessary, and for Croats, Bosniaks etc. strengthening central authority was absolutely unacceptable.

Basically, the communist model of federalization was stupid for two major reasons: it was federalization without democracy; and it was federalization without self-determination. Instead of trying to at least somewhat respect the desires of various communities, the communists divided the country into a bunch of random territories and called it a day.

The Cvetkovic-Macek federalization from older Yugoslavia would have been, with one or two additions, a much better model to work with. Adopt something like that, make central authority as weak as possible and the country should have a much better chance of staying (formally) united. Of course, getting the Communists to think along these lines would require some major changes in the pre-war history of the Communist Party, maybe even in the mentality of the Comintern itself.
 
Youd need to prevent any one group from gaining power in the country and using it as their own empire. Create genuinely democratic organizations in the parts of the federation.
 
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