WI/AHC: Successful Operation Mars

Operation Mars is an interesting part of WWII history and definitely an outlier in how we understand the course of the Eastern Front.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Mars
Was its OTL failure fated to happen or could it be fixed by a POD within the time period of the operation? How will it affect the course of the war? Could a more severe loss at Mars mean a longer war on the Eastern Front?
Here's a strategic map:
1024px-Rschew_1942.jpg
 
Well, Mars was the first Soviet op that was planned to use their newly found capability to gain local air superiority to their advantage. Terrible weather conditions prevented the VVS from providing any relevant support. Slightly better weather might have allowed attack aircraft to take a toll on german reserves movements within the salient. However, that probably would not be enough by itself.

Perhaps more importantly is that Zhukov diluted his forces to the point that they couldn't exploit any successes they had with some pretty pointless secondary attacks. Dropping the simultaneous offensives at Demyansk, Velikiye Luki, and along the Luchesa river and using those forces to assist in encircling Belyi probably would have been a much better idea.

It's doubtful that 9th Army could have been outright encircled and destroyed in the manner 6th Army was but forcing an evacuation of the northern part of the salient (inflicting much heavier losses on the Germans then IOTL in the process) was entirely possible. Jupiter still wouldn't occur, but future action against the remainder of the salient or Velikiye Luki/Demyansk would occur from December onwards. The removal of the Rzhev salient would free up Soviet formations months in advance for use further south (enough for a full-sized Saturn, maybe?) while weakening Manstein's counter blow at 3rd Kharkov... the Soviets might be able to hold onto Belgorod and maybe even Kharkov then.
 

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Perhaps more importantly is that Zhukov diluted his forces to the point that they couldn't exploit any successes they had with some pretty pointless secondary attacks. Dropping the simultaneous offensives at Demyansk, Velikiye Luki, and along the Luchesa river and using those forces to assist in encircling Belyi probably would have been a much better idea.
Part of that problem is by not attacking everywhere German defenses aren't overloaded and reserves and air power can be concentrated against the Rzhev attacks. Its unlikely to go much better for the Soviets than IOTL while then there aren't victories like Velikiye Luki that encircled and destroyed German forces after a costly siege to the Germans that burned up some of their remaining air transports trying to supply them:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_for_Velikiye_Luki

It's doubtful that 9th Army could have been outright encircled and destroyed in the manner 6th Army was but forcing an evacuation of the northern part of the salient (inflicting much heavier losses on the Germans then IOTL in the process) was entirely possible. Jupiter still wouldn't occur, but future action against the remainder of the salient or Velikiye Luki/Demyansk would occur from December onwards. The removal of the Rzhev salient would free up Soviet formations months in advance for use further south (enough for a full-sized Saturn, maybe?) while weakening Manstein's counter blow at 3rd Kharkov... the Soviets might be able to hold onto Belgorod and maybe even Kharkov then.
Forcing an evacuation by concentrating on Rzhev instead of dispersing attacks is probably the best that can be hoped for, but then its just transferring losses from one part of the front to another and foregoing encirclements, just inflicting those losses via attritional frontal assaults unlikely to utterly destroy units and equipment like a Velikiye Luki.

Its unlikely that forcing the early evacuation of Rzhev would come at a low enough cost to really boost the Soviets enough over the winter 1942-43 to achieve more, while also freeing up German reserves for use elsewhere. Once Rzhev is gone the Germans will pull out of vulnerable bulges like Demyansk too because they lose their strategic significance.
 
Part of that problem is by not attacking everywhere German defenses aren't overloaded and reserves and air power can be concentrated against the Rzhev attacks.

German reserves were already concentrated against the Rzhev attacks, which was a big reason why they stumbled so badly and a full encirclement is out of the question, so no difference there. And the attacks against Velikiye Luki can go off later anyways. The Germans will still be there.

Its unlikely that forcing the early evacuation of Rzhev would come at a low enough cost to really boost the Soviets enough over the winter 1942-43 to achieve more
Nonsense. The Soviets paid pretty much the maximum price as it was failing, in achieving a partial success they would take the same damage (at maximum) for a heavier toll upon the Germans. Even as it was, OTL's Operation Mars was absolutely murderous upon 9th Army's infantry formations. The freeing up of Soviet forces would also be significant. 2nd Guards, for example, could move south a lot sooner then it did ORL and maybe the 3rd Tank Army could go with it. And at least the German forces which get freed up will be a lot more damaged then they were OTL.
 
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For what it's worth, it's been claimed [by a ex-Soviet intelligence services general] that details on Operation Mars were deliberately leaked to the Germans through a double agent by order of Stalin.

This could be potentially be seen as retrospective rewriting of the failure, a way to blame it upon Stalin, or actually true.
 
For what it's worth, it's been claimed [by a ex-Soviet intelligence services general] that details on Operation Mars were deliberately leaked to the Germans through a double agent by order of Stalin.

This could be potentially be seen as retrospective rewriting of the failure, a way to blame it upon Stalin, or actually true.

Yeah I heard about that, although I don't have the slightest clue how much stock to put upon it.
 
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