How and what would happen if the Soviet Union had been able to develop the A-bomb first, and were able to maintain this monopoly for as long as the allies did IOTL?
How and what would happen if the Soviet Union had been able to develop the A-bomb first, and were able to maintain this monopoly for as long as the allies did IOTL?
So what does the USSR give up to make the bomb, and the infrastructure of Hanford and Oak Ridge by 1945?
USA could afford tossing 2 billion at a project and had all that spare electricity.
USSR doesn't.
USA could afford tossing 2 billion at a project and had all that spare electricity.
USSR doesn't.
An A-bomb program could be made much cheaper than the Manhattan Project. For example, if the USSR had opted to develop a plutonium bomb right out the gate. Of course, if I remember rightly, going the plutonium route would be slower, which makes it harder to get the thing first.
US HEU production outstripped Pu production for much of the Cold War. In 1947 the United States produced eight times as much U-235 as P-239
Most of the warheads were HEU/Pu composite pits through the '50s.
The optimal path is actually HEU made by gaseous diffusion used with implosion. Little Boy had enough HEU to make four bombs pits for a Fatman style device.
US HEU production really didn't decline till 1964
The problem with HEU only path, is you won't have the need to do implosion, as 'simple' Gun style devices are sufficient to work.
You need Pu-240 contaminated reactor Pu to start thinking about implosion
An A-bomb program could be made much cheaper than the Manhattan Project. For example, if the USSR had opted to develop a plutonium bomb right out the gate. Of course, if I remember rightly, going the plutonium route would be slower, which makes it harder to get the thing first.
The larger problem for the Soviets being first is that they can't get as much use from information gained from their spies in the Western programs.
Maybe if we have a no-Stalin TL, so Stalin's disastrous science policies are avoided as are some, but not all, of the bad military decisions prior to OTL's '41. The USSR never signs the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, instead signing a pact that trades raw materials for German machine tools and their neutrality if Germany invades Poland, the pact is honored until the Germans (who are weaker because of a longer fight against Poland) get bogged down in Northern France, and the Soviets try to "liberate" Poland. The Soviets don't do terribly well in their attack and the Germans beat them back into the middle of Belarus. The German advance coupled with news of the German atom bomb program causes the Soviet leadership to decide that they need to start their own program.
Long supply lines, weather and exhaustion lead to the Germans slowing down though and within a year the tide is completely in reverse. Due to France not being defeated, the Japanese decide to focus on China. Due to no Pearl Harbour, the US never enters the war against Germany, or the war against Japan, though it does send supplies to both the Chinese and the Western Allies. Due to the US not being at war, the Manhattan Project doesn't get as much funding.
With less damage to the Soviet Union, more and better scientists due to less Stalinist purging and enforced isolation, less cooperation between Britain and the US and slightly more urgency in pushing a-bomb development, the USSR is first to explode a nuclear device in 1946. This is much too late to help defeat Germany, who was crushed between the advancing Anglo-French and Soviet armies in '44.
fasquardon
I've not looked this stuff up recently, so I may be miss-remembering. I thought Pu was much easier to get to early on though?
fasquardon
Pu production is easier to scale as part of a "civil" nuclear programme though, HEU is exclusively for military (weapons and naval reactor) use.Not in large quantities. Hanford made 57 tons of bomb grade plutonium over 40 years Oak Ridge made 349 tons of HEU in 20 years
That's a lot of changes, but could achieve the desired result.
Not in large quantities. Hanford made 57 tons of bomb grade plutonium over 40 years Oak Ridge made 349 tons of HEU in 20 years
Could the USSR have advanced earlier in nuclear physics if (as is rather unlikely IMO) Trotsky rather than Stalin had been at the helm? Consider what Trotsky said in 1926:
"The phenomena of radio-activity are leading us to the problem of releasing intra-atomic energy. The atom contains within itself a mighty hidden energy, and the greatest task of physics consists in pumping out this energy, pulling out the cork so that this hidden energy may burst forth in a fountain. Then the possibility will be opened up of replacing coal and oil by atomic energy, which will also become the basic motive power. This is not at all a hopeless task. And what prospects it opens before us!"
https://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/1926/03/science.htm
Then, of course, there's the question of how the USSR uses it. I suspect they'd try to use it as a "big stick" as they try to grab large parts of Eastern Europe.
How and what would happen if the Soviet Union had been able to develop the A-bomb first, and were able to maintain this monopoly for as long as the allies did IOTL?
In that case, it is possible that the Schwarz Kapelle would move to remove Hitler and find a way to end the war.
The few people who were willing to overthrow Hitler if things got difficult lacked ability, allies and had weak positions in the command structure.
Do you mean like Fellgiebel, the chief of Signals, Canaris, the chief of Intelligence, von Brauchitsch, c-in-c of the Army, Halder, chief of the General Staff?
Fellgiebel and Canaris were both committed members of the Schwarze Kapelle.
Von Brauchitsch and Halder were not, but they frankly discussed a coup d'état against Hitler in November 1939. Both had been retired by 1944, but Halder was among those arrested afte 20 July.
What people don't get is what the 1940 campaign did. Hitler already had enthralled the German people; Halder had commented that no move against Hitler would be possible until there was a "setback" to discredit him. But in 1940, instead of a setback, there was a glorious, dazzling, beyond-all-expectations victory and Hitler's popularity became absolute.