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Is it possible for the Somalis to win the war? They, at one point, held 90% of the Ogaden region, and had destroyed significant parts of the Ethiopian military in the initial attack. Say the Derg was somewhat less stable or organized at the point of invasion, thus leading to a more rapid initial Somali victory? Another possibility could be that the Somali attacks on Dire Dawa succeed, bringing the Ethiopian economy to a complete standstill? Finally, possibly the Ethiopian counterattack on Jijiga in early February, which managed to surprise the Somalis and collapse their defense, is less of a surprise and gets shredded by dug-in Somali resistance?

Also, what happens if Somalia wins the war? I'd assume that the Barre regime lasts longer and maybe has a smooth-ish transition to a new leader once Barre dies. It may also lead to a collapse in the Derg, possibly with the restoration of a royal government under a "constitutional" monarchy (really a pragmatic military dictatorship aligned with the West)? Finally, the Somalis aren't going to forget the betrayal of the USSR, but they might not feel a need to align themselves fully with the West. Perhaps they become essentially non-aligned?
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