WI/AHC: Somalia Wins the Ogaden War

azander12

Is it possible for the Somalis to win the war? They, at one point, held 90% of the Ogaden region, and had destroyed significant parts of the Ethiopian military in the initial attack. Say the Derg was somewhat less stable or organized at the point of invasion, thus leading to a more rapid initial Somali victory? Another possibility could be that the Somali attacks on Dire Dawa succeed, bringing the Ethiopian economy to a complete standstill? Finally, possibly the Ethiopian counterattack on Jijiga in early February, which managed to surprise the Somalis and collapse their defense, is less of a surprise and gets shredded by dug-in Somali resistance?

Also, what happens if Somalia wins the war? I'd assume that the Barre regime lasts longer and maybe has a smooth-ish transition to a new leader once Barre dies. It may also lead to a collapse in the Derg, possibly with the restoration of a royal government under a "constitutional" monarchy (really a pragmatic military dictatorship aligned with the West)? Finally, the Somalis aren't going to forget the betrayal of the USSR, but they might not feel a need to align themselves fully with the West. Perhaps they become essentially non-aligned?
 

Hamurabi

I assume you are referring to the 1977/78 war.
I do not think somalia could have won it for political reasons, it was a foolish move by the Siad government that misjudged the resolve of the Soviet Union and the willingness of the west to help in any meaningful way.

in 4 months most of Ethiopia's mechanized units were destroyed, and they lost most of their tanks and armored vehicles, they were routed all the way to the mountanous terrain around the city of Harar, and 90% of the Ogaden was in Somali hands.

The Ethiopian airforce was the only one puting up a fight and maintained air superiority as they were better trained and experienced.(Ethiopian airforce founded in 1947, Somali airforce in 1961)
Their F-5's and F86 Sabres downed 2 MiG-21's and MiG-17's for every Ethiopian plane shot down.

Lucky for the somalis the Ethiopian airforce fell victim to infighting and lost the power struggles within the derg, and were purged.
Most of the experienced pilots were executed by their own government, and the airforce was grounded.
This gave the inexperienced Somali airforce a window of 3 months before the skies were taken over by Warsaw pact pilots and cubans and the introduction of the Mig-23


(Finally, possibly the Ethiopian counterattack on Jijiga in early February, which managed to surprise the Somalis and collapse their defense, is less of a surprise and gets shredded by dug-in Somali resistance?
)

Their was no effective Ethiopian armed force at the time, it was being reconstructed far behind the frontlines, and mostly by untrained conscripts.
Early 1977 the Ethiopian army was 40,000 strong and professional.
After its destruction by 1978 it was over 100,000 strong and consisting of conscripted peasants an infantry army.

The Offensive in june was by the Cubans, 15,000 cubans against 30,000 somalis. The Cubans launched a frontal attack against the dug in Somalis,
using Ethiopian conscripts as canon fodder , while the first mechanized airmobile envelopment in history was accomplished when the soviets landed an entire brigade of light tanks behind the lines at the same time.
This lead to one hell of a route and its amazing that 60% of the Somali army managed to escape at all.

So a Somali victory in 1977/78 was not possible,
they misread the political climate, the US would not risk detente for some african country, and only gave limited aid, the Saudis provided money, the Egyptians and Chinese provided weapons, the Pakistanis even provided pilots
but the war winded down before they engaged any soviet/cuban or Ethiopian pilots.
All this against a super power?
Somalis should have waited till 1985 when Gorbachev reduced aid and told them that all aid would eventually be cut off.

But by 1985 the Ethiopian armed forces Ballooned to 500,000 still mostly half trained peasants, but they were awash with weapons over 1000 tanks over 100 aircraft including Mig-23's,
while Somalia had 75,000.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top
Top