What would it take, and what would the effects be, of the UK, France and/or Russia refusing to defend Serbia from the Austro-Hungarian retaliation?
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...The Italian historian Luciano Magrini concluded from his interviews with key Serbian decision-makers and other witnesses to the events of those days that the Belgrade government had in effect decided to accept the ultimatum and avoid war. ‘It was thought that in the condition she was known to be in, Serbia could not be expected to do otherwise than yield to so terrible a threat.’ It was evidently in a mood of resignation that Pašić composed his telegram of 25 July to the Serbian missions declaring that Belgrade intended to send a reply that would be ‘conciliatory on all points’ and offer Vienna ‘full satisfaction’. This was unmistakably a major step back from Paču’s much firmer circular of two days before. A telegram from Crackanthorpe to Grey, dispatched just after midday on 25 July, confirms that at this point the Serbs were even willing to accept the notorious points 5 and 6 calling for a mixed commission of enquiry, ‘provided that the appointment of such commission can be proved to be in accordance with international usage’. Sleepwalkers, Christopher ClarkWhat would it take, and what would the effects be, of the UK, France and/or Russia refusing to defend Serbia from the Austro-Hungarian retaliation?
So what? If Britain has declared neutrality then the Schlieffen plan is off the table. British neutrality is likely to strengthen the pacific tendencies of the French socialists, who had won the French general election in May 1914. With a neutral Britain and France, Italy will definitely remain seated. Therefore, if Russia decides to fight, it will do so alone. How would the Russians cope against four German armies instead of one...Any Russian neutrality would be fragile, meaning that the further Austria embedded itself south of the Danube, the more dangerous Russia becomes. Hard terms with Belgrade meant a quagmire and a quagmire means Russian intervention with half the Austrian army out of position.
Serbia had a tough and experienced little army, but it would be grossly mismatched in 1v1 against A-H. Serbia could decisively win every battle, but still lose the war before Christmas - even without inevitable intervention of the OTL shell crisis, Bulgaria or General Typhoid.The Serbians themselves would put up a hell of a fight. No chance of victory for Austria in 1914...
In respect of Bulgaria, there is only one offer - free land, at the expense of a despised rival, at almost no risk. I would expect the Bulgarians to mobilise as soon as an accommodation has been reached with the Ottomans - OTL 19 August 1914....because their army cannot deliver and Bulgaria will be shopping around for the best offer well into 1915. How long can the Austrians possibly imagine Russian patience to last?
A-H is almost certain to win ugly, which is likely to provide the impetus to modernize its army and work more closely with German equivalents - glaring omissions OTLWhat Germany "gains" is its ally in a quagmire of outrageous expense - the Central Powers emerge weaker, not stronger, the more Austria commits itself.