WI/AHC: Ron Paul Challenges President Bush in 2004

Exactly what it says on the tin. Your challenge is to make it happen, and then predict what would happen. Would the Libertarian Revolution be somewhat-successful or no? And yes, before anyone asks, I'm 100% positive that Paul would not defeat Bush in the primaries.:p
 
People would be forced to pay attention to him. (He IS a Congressman running against Bush.) The Republicans would likely try and take revenge on Paul in 2004 in his congressional race, though they likely wouldn't succeed. I'm not sure when the Duelfer and Kay reports would come out, but Paul would not have Kerry's anchor of having voted for Iraq and can legitimately call Bush a liar when those come out. (He may also bring up Clinton in 98...)
If Paul does well, the Libertarians might do better come the fall...or the anti-war voters may seek out one of the anti-war candidates...or, who knows? Kerry might get trounced by Howard Dean...
 
Exactly what it says on the tin. Your challenge is to make it happen, and then predict what would happen. Would the Libertarian Revolution be somewhat-successful or no? And yes, before anyone asks, I'm 100% positive that Paul would not defeat Bush in the primaries.:p

Ron Paul could challenge Bush if he continued to increase the war budget, and with no Bush tax cuts the original Economic Libertarian Taxed Enough Already Partiers could fall behind Paul. He could split the Christian Conservative Primary vote with Bush, and if he decided to run on a 3rd party ticket, that could also cause major havoc, taking 10-30% of the Republican vote in most states, and even probably winning some in the deep south.
And for shits and giggles I made a map...

genusmap.php
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Democrat: Kerry/ Edwards 354 EV, 49% PV
Republican: Bush/ Cheney 158 EV, 37% PV
Independant/Libertarian: Paul/ Browne 26 EV, 13% PV
 

pnyckqx

Banned
Exactly what it says on the tin. Your challenge is to make it happen, and then predict what would happen. Would the Libertarian Revolution be somewhat-successful or no? And yes, before anyone asks, I'm 100% positive that Paul would not defeat Bush in the primaries.:p
Borderline ASB. The economy was starting to recover from the DOT COM debacle and 9/11. Without the collapse of 2008, Ron Paul is just everybody's crazy uncle.

No way his non-interventionalist foreign policy gets any traction. It's too soon after 9/11, and Paul voted yes on the Afghanistan intervention.

i say this as a guy who voted for him in 1988.
 
Paul getting any electoral votes is definitely ASB; however, he could possibly get enough votes to give Kerry the election, though even that is a bit of a stretch.

Needless to say, this would be political suicide for Paul, especially if it ends up resulting in President Kerry.
 

pnyckqx

Banned
Paul getting any electoral votes is definitely ASB; however, he could possibly get enough votes to give Kerry the election, though even that is a bit of a stretch.

Needless to say, this would be political suicide for Paul, especially if it ends up resulting in President Kerry.
Paul's non-intervention foreign policy and raging about the cost of the Iraq war just may pick off Kerry's left wing. It balances out.

Ron Paul is an enigma in US politics. He flanks right wingers on the right and left wingers on the left.
 
The upper ceiling for Paul can't be more than 10x the existing libertarian vote in 2004 - that would get him up to 3.8%. If it comes neatly from Bush, that would flip Ohio, though not by much - more likely, many of the extra votes would be from non-voters, Nader voters, or Democrats and the outcome would be unchanged.

Still, a showing in that range would certainly make the Libertarian party a haven for any disaffected Republicans in the next few years.
 
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