WI/AHC - Provence remained independent

Depends on how it happens. Easiest PoD is keeping the Anjou out in the first place. In which case it means France probably doesn't broach the Rhone.

Obvious and significant butterflies for Italy, namely no Italian Wars. Also could mean surviving Hohenstaufen and/or unified and independent kingdom of Sicily.

Without Provence France is much weaker, assuming they don't make gains elsewhere (like say Flanders). Marseilles and Lyons are the second and third biggest regions, and Provence is and was very wealthy territory. France also probably doesn't have as much of an interest in Savoy, and in any case won't get nice or Corsica probably either, so again its probably ultimately beneficial to Italy, assuming Italy exists.
 
Depends on how it happens. Easiest PoD is keeping the Anjou out in the first place. In which case it means France probably doesn't broach the Rhone.

Obvious and significant butterflies for Italy, namely no Italian Wars. Also could mean surviving Hohenstaufen and/or unified and independent kingdom of Sicily.

Without Provence France is much weaker, assuming they don't make gains elsewhere (like say Flanders). Marseilles and Lyons are the second and third biggest regions, and Provence is and was very wealthy territory. France also probably doesn't have as much of an interest in Savoy, and in any case won't get nice or Corsica probably either, so again its probably ultimately beneficial to Italy, assuming Italy exists.
From what I understand, France had acquired Lyon before the passage to the Valois, and Dauphiné around that time too. So Provence would remain ultimately within the French sphere if not immediately French, although more like Lorraine than say the Dombes, Sedan or Bouillon.
 
From what I understand, France had acquired Lyon before the passage to the Valois, and Dauphiné around that time too. So Provence would remain ultimately within the French sphere if not immediately French, although more like Lorraine than say the Dombes, Sedan or Bouillon.

Depends on how things go, but I was assuming that a PoD in the early 13th century forestalled the aquisition of the Dauphine, if nothing else I think an independent Provence would be more likely to annex that territory. From my understanding France gained the region primarily because there was no one willing and able to stop them- Burgundy was a region without any real power involved in it, as the HRE was even less present there than in Italy. An independent Provence, presumably, would be able to scoop up these territories, and perhaps even the royal crown of the Arelate, more easily than say Milan could gain the Iron Crown (or Charles the Rash gaining a royal crown for that matter). Certainly it would be an easier route of expansion than into Toulouse or Lombardy!
 
A clarification is needed about "independent Provence", as they were few times in which Provence was effectively independent and not part of a larger realm : 903-1093, when the Raimondins definitively united northern Provence to theirs others counties, and 1185-1245, when a junior line of the Catalans counts was seated in (southern) Provence. The Raimondin principality, the Catalan-Aragonese kingdom, the first Anjou kingdom and the second Anjou dynasty counted Provence as one of many provinces. Arguably, it was a favoured seat under the first period of the Anjou (1246-1266) and the later Anjou, especially the end of René's life (1474-1480), but apart from these periods, Provence was not an independent polity.

I think an independent Provence-Toulouse is interesting under the Raimondins.

Actually the Provence inheritance weaken the Raimondins, as their lands were splitted in two by the Trencavel principality. The perpetual go-and-forth between Toulouse and Avignon did not help the Counts to ensure local domination in the Midi. They should have taken a leaf from the Catalans' book and handed Provence to a junior line.
 
As far as PODs are concerned regarding an independent Provence, am not fussed so long as the population remains Provençal speakers in the alternate present.
 
As far as PODs are concerned regarding an independent Provence, am not fussed so long as the population remains Provençal speakers in the alternate present.

A PoD where France took a different linguistic policy is enough. After all, there is still a significant number of provençal speakers in OTL. With a different schooling organization, regional languages could still be spoken by the majority.
 
A clarification is needed about "independent Provence", as they were few times in which Provence was effectively independent and not part of a larger realm : 903-1093, when the Raimondins definitively united northern Provence to theirs others counties, and 1185-1245, when a junior line of the Catalans counts was seated in (southern) Provence. The Raimondin principality, the Catalan-Aragonese kingdom, the first Anjou kingdom and the second Anjou dynasty counted Provence as one of many provinces. Arguably, it was a favoured seat under the first period of the Anjou (1246-1266) and the later Anjou, especially the end of René's life (1474-1480), but apart from these periods, Provence was not an independent polity.



Actually the Provence inheritance weaken the Raimondins, as their lands were splitted in two by the Trencavel principality. The perpetual go-and-forth between Toulouse and Avignon did not help the Counts to ensure local domination in the Midi. They should have taken a leaf from the Catalans' book and handed Provence to a junior line.
I think the marriage between Douce II(surviving to adulthood) and Raymond VI of Toulouse will cause Melgueil and Provence to pass to the Raimondins, I think Melgueil and Provence can pass to a junior line.
 
A PoD where France took a different linguistic policy is enough. After all, there is still a significant number of provençal speakers in OTL. With a different schooling organization, regional languages could still be spoken by the majority.

Linguistic policy is a part of it, but there is also the issue of migration - from other parts of France, from the ex-colonies, and from Italy and elsewhere. These populations are probably going to be (or become) francophone rather than adopt Provençal.

If Provence remains part of France, I think the best-case scenario for the Provençal language is something like in Wales OTL, where the populated urban areas of the south speak only English but the more rural areas to the north/west speak Welsh, to varying degrees. I could see the interior of Provence perhaps still speaking the language but I think Marseille and the Mediterranean coast are likely to become francophone.

350px-Welsh_speakers_in_the_2011_census.png
 
Linguistic policy is a part of it, but there is also the issue of migration - from other parts of France, from the ex-colonies, and from Italy and elsewhere. These populations are probably going to be (or become) francophone rather than adopt Provençal.

If Provence remains part of France, I think the best-case scenario for the Provençal language is something like in Wales OTL, where the populated urban areas of the south speak only English but the more rural areas to the north/west speak Welsh, to varying degrees. I could see the interior of Provence perhaps still speaking the language but I think Marseille and the Mediterranean coast are likely to become francophone.

350px-Welsh_speakers_in_the_2011_census.png
Catalonia maybe a more useful comparison, as it is way closer to Provence as a society than Wales. The only thing that allowed for the survival of Catalan is the school system, ensuring immigrant children are versed in Catalan, even when it is not their mother tongue.
 
A PoD where France took a different linguistic policy is enough. After all, there is still a significant number of provençal speakers in OTL. With a different schooling organization, regional languages could still be spoken by the majority.

However Provence would still be part of France in such a scenario unless the French somehow agree to a referendum where Provence becomes independent.
 
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