WI/AHC Portuguese get Pink Map areas

Uhura's Mazda · Mar 14, 2014

As I understand it, the Portuguese were still only in control of the coastal areas of Angola and Mozambique in the 19th century, but claimed a stretch of land connecting the two which they didn't have the cash, population or inclination to occupy. Then, in 1889, John Cecil Rhodes raced Leopold II's Stairs Expedition to establish colonial rule over the native kingdoms in modern Zimbabwe, Zambia and Katanga and basically won. The Portuguese were a bit miffed and asked their oldest allies to stop cockblocking them, but the British told them where to shove it and King Carlos ended up with a bullet in the head.

So how can Lisbon reasonably either properly colonise the interior before the UK gets involved or convince Britain to allow them to retain their claim in return for (presumably) letting the British South African Company trade in their lands and build that bloody Railway if it means that much to them?

Additionally, how does this affect Britain, Portugal and the colonies themselves? I'm assuming the East-West axis will mean better cross-continental lines of communication which will be a boon come decolonisation, for a start.

Reagent · Mar 14, 2014

The simplest way to do this would be for the Dutch to retain Cape Colony, or for France to occupy Egypt instead of the British (which would nullify the desire for a railway, and perhaps prevent some British expansion into Zimbabwe / Zambia).

miguelrj · Mar 14, 2014

No Rhodes -> no early vision of a "Cape to Cairo" -> time for Portugal to consolidate control in the interior while Britain doesn't go hysterical. There would be the question of the access to Nyasaland, though.

Wendell · Mar 15, 2014

miguelrj said:
No Rhodes -> no early vision of a "Cape to Cairo" -> time for Portugal to consolidate control in the interior while Britain doesn't go hysterical. There would be the question of the access to Nyasaland, though.

Was Nyasaland even seriously claimed yet?

miguelrj · Mar 15, 2014

Wendell said:
Was Nyasaland even seriously claimed yet?

Nope... It was just crowded with British missionaries so that's a bother for Portugal.
Even so, IOTL Britain only recognized a protectorate over the place close to the Ultimatum and was willing to negotiate its rights over it to Portugal.

Widukind · Mar 15, 2014

No Rhodes is going to help, but it won't be that long before some British higher-up gets the bright idea of connecting the Cape to Cairo. IOTL, they didn't just want it because it looked good on a map. They wanted it because it was a good idea, politically and economically.

Even if that idea takes longer to gain momentum, Portugal likely won't be able to consolidate power in the interior before then... which means that Britain will still press the issue.

So to summarize: I have my doubts wether taking mr. Rhodes out of the equation will suffice. If you really want to be certain, prevent British possession of either Egypt or the Cape/South Africa.

Or, alternatively: have the British literally annex nothing except Cape Town from the Dutch after the Napoleonic Wars. The rest of the Cape Colony remains Dutch, and the Brits are in no position to start wars against them. In that case, they might even eagerly support the Portuguese territorial ambitions, as a way of curbing Dutch colonial expansion.

Wendell · Mar 15, 2014

This might actually necessitate preventing the British from gaining control of Egypt.

Uhura's Mazda · Mar 15, 2014

Yeah, it doesn't seem like the Dutch were in any position to retain Cape Colony post-Napoleon. The reason the British took over was because no-one else was going to give good (white, non-French) government to the area, and the Cape was strategic enough to be worth a punt. With a POD in the 1800s its difficult to prise Britain out of South Africa.

So what are the possibilities with Egypt? Maybe if the Ottomans were solid enough to keep control, or if Muhammad Ali stayed in Albania, or if France managed to gain hegemony. Any thoughts? And it isn't enough for Britain to be uninterested; Portugal has to really want to spend vast amounts of cash on Africa.

How about the effects of a Transafrican colony?

Ridwan Asher · Mar 15, 2014

Preventing British Egypt will also prevent the partition of Zanzibar realm. Just saying.

miguelrj · Mar 16, 2014

Widukind said:
No Rhodes is going to help, but it won't be that long before some British higher-up gets the bright idea of connecting the Cape to Cairo. IOTL, they didn't just want it because it looked good on a map. They wanted it because it was a good idea, politically and economically.

Even if that idea takes longer to gain momentum, Portugal likely won't be able to consolidate power in the interior before then... which means that Britain will still press the issue.

But you see, as late as 1887 the British representative offered Portugal the Zambezi river as the northern limit of British expansion. And once Britain and Portugal have a treaty, there's no way that the British are going to br... oh wait...

Uhura's Mazda said:
How about the effects of a Transafrican colony?

Angola and Mozambique would soon be connected by rail and their colonial administations would then merge. This would very likely create a post-colonial lusophonic Transafrican Federation.
How successful would that country be in comparison to OTL Angola, Mozambique et al? Butterflies make it hard to know. It has more potential than each individually but not that much, I think.

unprincipled peter · Mar 16, 2014

you need a POD early in the 1800's.

Portugal was an economic wreck after being ripped apart in the Penninsular war losing Brazil and then going through the power struggle in the 20's/30's. And it was no bastion of modern prosperity prior to that. Joao vi was no masterful ruler, except for his brief stint in Brazil. In the middle part of the 1800's, Portugal didn't have the investment/industrialization ability to do much in Africa, and by the time they got around to doing anything, they were already second fiddle in their own realm. I believe they hired an english firm to run mozambique.

So, maybe, if you POD with Jose (Joao's older brother who died before he could claim the throne), or maybe even wish away Maria's (their mother) madness affliction which tortured her for 20 or so years, and magically give them the political acumen, you can set Portugal on a path of prosperity.

Portugal's big problem in Africa is that in the 1800's they had no real ability to build it into anything profitable enough for them to establish rule. Thus, they were easily shoved aside by all parties. They claimed the pink map, they had historical 'right' to it, they simply didn't have any real rule over anything but a couple of ports.