WI/AHC: Ottoman Indonesia

Ottoman Indonesia is most likely in two options:

1. Various Sultanates who accept Ottoman protection. From Aceh to the Moluccas. No direct rule but Ottoman Naval Units are nead to protect it. As @kasumigenx says, significant Ottoman presence in Indonesia before the 1570s might prevent Spanish Rule over the Philippines.

2. Aceh places itself under Ottoman Rule. Not entirely Indonesia but partly.

Spain is going to get her hands on a resupply point for the Pacific galleon trade, one way or another. There's just too much profit to be made from shipping New World bullion from Mexico and Peru to China. Though, given a Portugal beaten out of commerce past Cape Horn is much weaker, might we see Spain renting out Macua as a trade space instead? They could count on the Chinese navy for coastal security. Or maybe they'd bump into Hawaii?
 

Lusitania

Donor
The interesting thing is that people commenting on this thread expect that Portugal and Spain and rest of Europe to be the same. A Ottoman empire who has a foothold in Indonesia is not going to be so powerful that it can control all of the Indian Ocean. A POD to allow the Ottoman empire into the Indian Ocean would require them to divert resources from other areas. When their enemies in Europe and elsewhere will press in to take advantage of the Ottoman empire preoccupation with the Indian ocean the Ottoman will be forced to withdraw resources, troops to deal with territory closer to the heart of the Ottoman empire and any peripheral territories will suffer from neglect and lack of resources, soldiers and ships. An empire is only so large and resources finite. The profit in spices is too great to stop all attacks from Europe and those who wish to make a profit at Ottoman expense. You do not need Europeans to attack, for rivals in the Indian Ocean will also attack the Ottoman empire. Any move to gain control of Indonesia will alienate and anger someone who will be looking for an opportunity. No the best and cheapest way is for the Ottoman to establish alliances and protectorates in East Asia.

Also either Portugal and Spain will have control of Atlantic and the New world which they can use to reach the orient and Indonesia from the Pacific without worrying about any potential enemies. Remember the Europeans had surpassed the Ottomans in terms of ship design and technology by the mid 16th century. Both the Europeans and Ottoman be fighting at the peripherals of their reach. The more the Europeans increase their trade in Indian ocean and East Asia the less money the ottoman empire has.

One of the main reasons for the Ottoman Empire decline in the 16-17th century was the fact that Europeans was awash in silver and gold from the new world which decreased the value of the silver and gold in the Ottoman empire and middle east.
 
Spain is going to get her hands on a resupply point for the Pacific galleon trade, one way or another. There's just too much profit to be made from shipping New World bullion from Mexico and Peru to China. Though, given a Portugal beaten out of commerce past Cape Horn is much weaker, might we see Spain renting out Macua as a trade space instead? They could count on the Chinese navy for coastal security. Or maybe they'd bump into Hawaii?

Hawaii is just outside the Manilla Galleon Route. But Palau, Guam or even Taipei may be another option for Spain. Although it is not given that Spain would give up going for Luzon anytime after failing to subjugating it. Even in the Philippines, there won't be direct Ottoman Rule. Odds are not even vassalage. But Malay Rulers may use their force to keep the Philippines away from hostile hands.

But a lot has to go right for the Ottomans to aid the rulers in Luzon.
 
Hawaii is just outside the Manilla Galleon Route. But Palau, Guam or even Taipei may be another option for Spain. Although it is not given that Spain would give up going for Luzon anytime after failing to subjugating it. Even in the Philippines, there won't be direct Ottoman Rule. Odds are not even vassalage. But Malay Rulers may use their force to keep the Philippines away from hostile hands.

But a lot has to go right for the Ottomans to aid the rulers in Luzon.
Brunei can be an ottoman proxy in the 'philippines' and continue their empire.
 
Brunei can be an ottoman proxy in the 'philippines' and continue their empire.

That is the idea. Hell, even Johore can be a proxy. Or Sulu. At least a regional power. Brunei is the closest and can offer more resources I guess. But a regional power have to keep most of the land forces there. And additional Naval support. I don't see the Ottomans sending even 6,000 Janissaries to fight over the Philippines when the fronts are already expanded enough...
 
That is the idea. Hell, even Johore can be a proxy. Or Sulu. At least a regional power. Brunei is the closest and can offer more resources I guess. But a regional power have to keep most of the land forces there. And additional Naval support. I don't see the Ottomans sending even 6,000 Janissaries to fight over the Philippines when the fronts are already expanded enough...
During that time, Sulu is under a union with Brunei..
 
The interesting thing is that people commenting on this thread expect that Portugal and Spain and rest of Europe to be the same. A Ottoman empire who has a foothold in Indonesia is not going to be so powerful that it can control all of the Indian Ocean. A POD to allow the Ottoman empire into the Indian Ocean would require them to divert resources from other areas. When their enemies in Europe and elsewhere will press in to take advantage of the Ottoman empire preoccupation with the Indian ocean the Ottoman will be forced to withdraw resources, troops to deal with territory closer to the heart of the Ottoman empire and any peripheral territories will suffer from neglect and lack of resources, soldiers and ships. An empire is only so large and resources finite. The profit in spices is too great to stop all attacks from Europe and those who wish to make a profit at Ottoman expense. You do not need Europeans to attack, for rivals in the Indian Ocean will also attack the Ottoman empire. Any move to gain control of Indonesia will alienate and anger someone who will be looking for an opportunity. No the best and cheapest way is for the Ottoman to establish alliances and protectorates in East Asia.

Also either Portugal and Spain will have control of Atlantic and the New world which they can use to reach the orient and Indonesia from the Pacific without worrying about any potential enemies. Remember the Europeans had surpassed the Ottomans in terms of ship design and technology by the mid 16th century. Both the Europeans and Ottoman be fighting at the peripherals of their reach. The more the Europeans increase their trade in Indian ocean and East Asia the less money the ottoman empire has.

One of the main reasons for the Ottoman Empire decline in the 16-17th century was the fact that Europeans was awash in silver and gold from the new world which decreased the value of the silver and gold in the Ottoman empire and middle east.

Hence why I suggested a Princely State tributary and mutual defense style system (likely, since direct governance of large, highly populated overseas areas outside trade regards wasn't really viable or attempted in the era), with the Ottomans perhaps only having a strong presence in a single regional port set aside to manage exports. I was assuming greater Turkish naval development in terms of tech and scale as a given, as that's the only way they'd be able to have a secure route of control in the first place, which if we want to shift the focus could easily be done by not overreaching into Hungary and having the Magyars blunt rivaly will the Habsburgs, as well as having acheived a Pax Osmanli in the Eastern Med. by a more desicive walloping of Venice and her Holy League allies and limiting the piracy problem (Taking out the Knights when they lost Rhodes,rather than setting them free and later finding them pestering Islamic commerce from Malta,could have contributed here). Spain, wrapped up in the Wars of Religion and the Neatherlands debacle, is in no position to want to organize a Crusade to turn the Eastern Med. back into an area of contest, and there's no other naval power on that ocean who can fill the roll, leaving Constantinople with secure fronts.
 
Top