WI/AHC: Norwegian Front

MSZ

Banned
The Norwegian campaign lasted from april till june 1940 and ended with a withdrawal of allied forces after the invasion of France, leaving the country to the Germans. But what if that could be prevented and Norway managed to stand?

So for the challenge, how could the allies win in Norway? I'm thinking something like the allies taking Narvik and the RAF bombing norwegian railways preventing the Germans from advancing northwards too fast, the high mountains and fiords providing a good natural defence. France would still fall, but the allies in Norway stand and fight, pushing southwards, the "Battle of Britain" taking place over the skies of Norway. The Royal Navy completely blocks the North Sea, maybe even manages to distrupt the supply lines going from the Reich to Norway, eventually leading to the allies making it south to Oslo.

How would allied presence in northern Norway affect the battle of France and the battle of Britain? Would Hitler still attack Yugoslavia/Egypt/USSR if he wasn't "really done" with the British in Europe as OTL? Could we see a hypothetical D-Day in Denmark taking place from Norway if it doesn't fall?
 
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The Norwegian government actually orders their men to shoot at sight, as a result the initial German offensive is much less succesful than OTL. The Anglo-French still land in the north, and Hood and KGV sink the German twins. With a much weaker force in the south and some more 50/50 things going the way of the allies Hitler decides France will be prioritized over Norway. After it falls they focus on Norway again, of course the British-Norwegians have dug in as much as they could in the north, but still after months of brutal struggle the Germans finally win. Honestly I don't think the British could win a Norwegian campaign when they had just lost France and their field army was in chaos, even with the help of Norway. They could have done a lot more than OTL though.
 
The Norwegian campaign lasted from april till june 1940 and ended with a withdrawal of allied forces after the invasion of France, leaving the country to the Germans. But what if that could be prevented and Norway managed to stand?

So for the challenge, how could the allies win in Norway? I'm thinking something like the allies taking Narvik

The Allies did take Narvik. But the Germans had gained control of all the major ports and airbases. The Allied presence in Norway was untenable due to German air supremacy.

OK, you want an on-going Norway front... Assume that the Allies are not caught flat-footed by the German invasion, and defeat the Narvik, Trondheim, and Bergen attacks.

This gives the Allies control of half Norway, with major ports and bases. The Allies pour in forces, but... The Germans have taken Oslo, Kristiansand, and Stavanger, and move in strength as well.

The terrain is very rough; the Allies dig in across central Norway, and repel German attacks.

The French campaign still goes as OTL, but the Allies maintain enough forces in Norway to keep it stable.

One knock-on: the partial defeat of WESERUBUNG and resulting heavy losses of German troops makes Hitler extremely nervous about invading Britain; and the British are much less worried about an invasion. Britain moves enough air strength to Norway to keep the sea lanes open.

Another knock-on: the U-boats have more difficulty getting out to sea; there is a choke point between Norway and the Shetlands, with Allied bases on both sides.

Third knock-on: Finland probably does not go for the Continuation War. If Finland attacks the USSR, Finland will be at war with the Allies in Norway - which they really wouldn't want.
 
Another factor that makes it difficult for the Allies in this scenario is that the Germans have a very short supply line from Jutland across Skaggerak that would be near impossible to interdict while the Btitish have a much longer route that is more vulnerable to disruption.

I think it is doable but it needs multiple POD's in the inter war, the Allies, and in particular the British have to be much better prepared for the War. The Whale has Wings has a more powerful RN based around a modern carrier force, the end result in Norway is the same but the KM and the Luftwaffe have significantly higher losses that results in significant butterflies down the line. There also needs to be much better co-operation between the RN and RAF, much of the RAF's contribution ITTL is based on OTL and include some real face palm moments. Finally the Norwegians themselves must be better prepared for the War and put up much tougher opposition to the initial German landings.
 
Third knock-on: Finland probably does not go for the Continuation War. If Finland attacks the USSR, Finland will be at war with the Allies in Norway - which they really wouldn't want.

Without tens of thousands of German soldiers holding the front north from Oulu they won't have the numbers to even try such a move in the first place. Not to mention that in OTL Finns aligned themselves closer to Hitler only after their earlier hopes of W-Allied intervention to Winter War and post-Winter War plans of a state union with Sweden had both failed. I'd actually think that the latter scheme might have good chances to succeed in such a scenario, with war at their western border the Swedish government would be eager to seek support for their neutrality - and Finns were basically willing to turn themselves into a puppet state (full control of Finnish foreign policy, for example) in exchange of an alliance with Stockholm.
 
The Norwegian campaign lasted from april till june 1940 and ended with a withdrawal of allied forces after the invasion of France, leaving the country to the Germans. But what if that could be prevented and Norway managed to stand?

So for the challenge, how could the allies win in Norway? I'm thinking something like the allies taking Narvik and the RAF bombing norwegian railways preventing the Germans from advancing northwards too fast, the high mountains and fiords providing a good natural defence. France would still fall, but the allies in Norway stand and fight, pushing southwards, the "Battle of Britain" taking place over the skies of Norway. The Royal Navy completely blocks the North Sea, maybe even manages to distrupt the supply lines going from the Reich to Norway, eventually leading to the allies making it south to Oslo.

How would allied presence in northern Norway affect the battle of France and the battle of Britain? Would Hitler still attack Yugoslavia/Egypt/USSR if he wasn't "really done" with the British in Europe as OTL? Could we see a hypothetical D-Day in Denmark taking place from Norway if it doesn't fall?

IMO, the norwegian campaign can be won if:
- the allies win big at sea early enough
- the norwegians mobilize and put up an initial strong defense
- Hitler panics and calls of the landings to prevent a possible hummiliating defeat that could have massive effects on troop morale in France

I wrote a short scenario of this once:
April 8

Gruppe 1, with Scharnhorst, Gneisenau and 10 destroyers are heading north towards Narvik, carrying 2000 troops of the 3 Mountain Division. North of their position is the battlecruiser Renown and her escorts, sailing south to intercept.

Further south lies a British group of 2 cruisers and 15 destroyers, and, separated from these, the destroyer Glowworm, originally part of Renown's escort, but which had been unable to keep up.

South still is Gruppe 2, with Admiral Hipper and 4 destroyers, carrying 1700 mountain troops bound for Trondheim, with the British Home Fleet in hot pursuit.


Shortly after dawn on the 8th, the Glowworm encounters 2 German destroyers and then the heavy cruiser Admiral Hipper. Unable to escape, she ineffectually launches all torpedoes at the German ship before ramming her, causing heavy damage. The Glowworm itself is sunk by Hippers guns.

Forbes orders the Renown to head south to Glowworms last known position, putting it on a collision course with Gruppe 1

POD - April 8, 14.00 hours

A British Sunderland flying boat is on a recon mission in the North Sea in conditions of heavy rain. With the crew distracted by a joke told by the navigator, they fail to spot the German fleet heading for Trondheim and Narvik through the narrow opening in the clouds


Admiral Forbes does not conclude that the Germans are trying to break out and all ships maintain course.

The first to make contact are Gruppe 2 and the British force of 2 cruisers and 15 destroyers. 1 German destroyer is damaged and Gruppe 2 heads south to evade destruction. The damaged destroyer however fails to keep up and is sunk. Heading south, they encounter the Home fleet. The damaged Admiral Hipper and her 3 destroyers are all sent to the bottom.


To the north, the Renown clashes with the Gneisenau and Scharnhorst. Gneisenau's fir-control systems are damaged and 1 German destroyer is sunk with the British also loosing 1 destroyer. Gruppe 1 attempts to head north-west, but the Renown successfully follows them.

Hours later, Gruppe 2 is intercepted by the british cruiser and destroyer group, now also accompanied by the Repulse. With the Germans sandwiched between the two fleets, they loose the Gneisenau and two further destroyers, with the rest scattering westward.

The Norwegian cabinet meets to discuss the situation (5 hours earlier than OTL). During the meeting, the decision is initially taken to enact partial mobilization. However, when asked how this would take place, defence minister Birtger Ljungberg explains that it would be carried out according to regulations in secret and by post (1). With this information, the cabinet decides to issue an immediate full mobilization, since it would be the only option that could be carried out in time, much to Ljungbers opposition.

April 9

  • German forces begin to occupy Denmark
  • With the general alarm raised, Norwegian forces manage to repel the German Fallschirmjager forces landing at the airbase at Sola near Stavanger. Instrumental to this was the only finished concrete bunker with a machine gun, which scored dozens of kills, as well as covering fire from Norwegian infantry, who managed to prevent one daring German paratrooper from hurdling a grenade into the bunker.(2) Despite Me109 cover, the paratroopers soon found themselves in an untenable position and surrendered.
  • Scharnhorst and 5 destroyers switch course and head for Bergen, but encounter the remainder of the Home fleet, also sailing south. 1 German destroyer is sunk, but the Scharnhorst escapes any damage
  • With the British being just a few miles away, Gruppe 3 abandon their position west of Bergen and sail south hours before their attack on the harbor was to be launched, in order to avoid destruction
  • German transport Roda sunk by the Norwegian destroyer Sleipner off Stavanger (3)
  • Blucher sunk by the Oscarsborg Fortress at 5:30 AM, with heavy loss of life. Deutschland damaged. (3)
  • Luftwaffe attacks the Oscarsborg Fortress (3)
  • Gruppe 5 unloads its troops in Sonsbukten, 19 km south of Oscarsborg (3)
  • At 9.45, paratroopers still battle Norwegian infantry in the Oslo airport, although by now they are gaining the upper hand, with the Norwegians being mostly freshly mobilized recruits
  • Luftwaffe fails to spot the RN, now in a different position (4)
  • At Kristiansand, coastal batteries damage the Karlsruhe and twice repulse the landing attempts by 10 AM (5)
With the landing forces bound for Narvik and Trondheim almost totally destroyed, the one for Bergen forced to abandon and the ones at Kristiansand and Oslo apparently unable to make any headway, Hitler feared the worst, namely that should the Wehrmacht be seen as having lost in Norway, morale could suffer strong enough to prevent a successful invasion of France. If, however, it was all seen as a series of small naval battles, then the impact would be minimal. Plus, once France fell, victory would be his. No need to risk that with a futile attempt to take small towns and fjords he’d never heard about. So, at the last moment, Hitler cancels the invasion. The paratroopers at Oslo airport, still engaged in fighting, are ordered south to rendezvous with the forces there and then sail back to Germany, or, failing to do that, head for Sweden. Everyone else receives a general order to retreat back to base.

1 - in the different circumstances of OTL, this question was never asked
2 - OTL, with no mobilization, there was no cover fire, and so the bunker was destroyed
3 - same as OTL
4 - OTL, the RN was spotted and attacked,
5 - OTL Gruppe 4 finally managed to force a landing at 11 AM, only here it doesn't get the chance
 
A few PODs to change things in Allied favour:

Denmark resists or rather the General command decide to reinforce the battalion in North Jutland with a AA-battery and let the combined force guard the Aalborg Airfield making it unuseable for just a few days.

Force WV stays on position at the mouth of the Vestfjord defeating the arrival of Diethls force at Narvik.

On the night of 8-9. April 1940 a group of British submarines actually fired torpedoes at Group 5 heading for Oslo but failing to hit as the German ships began preventive evasive manouevres.

Let there be no confusion as how to mobilize the Norwegian Army; i.e. its fully alerted late on April 8 and mobilization initiated by radiobroadcast instead of by letter!
 
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Another factor that makes it difficult for the Allies in this scenario is that the Germans have a very short supply line from Jutland across Skaggerak that would be near impossible to interdict while the Btitish have a much longer route that is more vulnerable to disruption.

But it was - British and Polish submarines were having a go at German shipping with quite some success and RAF were mining the shallow parts of the Skagerak.
 
As I understood it Norwegian preparations were somewhat confused, as others have mentioned. How about they see the writing on the wall and declare before Operation Weserubung kicks off that they'll being following a course of heavily armed neutrality, announcing publicly that their coastal fortresses and and defence ships will fire on any either Allied or Nazi ships that violate their waters? The other good change would be if the confusion over mobilisation plans was avoided with the Norwegian cabinet not realising when ordering it that it would be done secretly via post as then current procedures mandated and the military thinking thinking that they knew this. All it takes is one of the other cabinet ministers to offhandedly ask Ljungberg how it will be done and I think they would have gone immediately for mobilisation of the four brigades via radio. Even better would be if the chief of staff Rasmus Hatledal's multiple requests on the 5th and 6th of April for mobilisation had been agreed to, although that would of probably needed to change some of the senior people involved to achieve that.
 
There are a couple of things that has to go absolutely right for the Germans - and which did turn out that way - but could very easily become a complete nightmare and a major drain on German resources.

For instance, IF the Norwegian government decides to listen to the reports from their diplomats that the Germans are moving north in force and orders a precautionary interdiction of Norwegian territorial waters at night, the lighthouses will be dark and the costal defences around Bergen and the outer Oslo fiord will lay their minefields. The batteries were primarily intended to defend the mines and the passage will be patroled at night and merchant shipping escorted through during daytime. The warnings came increasingly from 6. April and onwards, and the fields would be deployed before the 9. April. However, whether they would actually work is a different matter, but the German invasion forces would take significant attrition from the mines and the defending batteries.

This would then imply that the Norwegian government would stay in Oslo, the infantry regiments around Oslo which had their mobilization depots overrun by the German forces from the ships that turned back after Blucher was sunk at Oscarsborg would most probably had time to deploy, and the costal fortresses would continue to deny the fiord as a supply line.

If Bergen also held, that would of course help a lot with allied reinforcement, especially due to the railway Bergen-Oslo.

However, the main problem would be that no amount of handvawium would be able to deny the Germans air superiority over Skagerak and the southern tip of Norway as soon as the paratroopers had secured the large airfield at Stavanger - Sola. They would then be able to provide air superiority over the LOC from Denmark to the port of Stavanger as and work their way north and east as their air umbrella expands.

As their air-ground tactics were superb and would be used against an army that hadn't fought an engagement since 1813, they would most probably be able to secure the southern part fairly easily and then work their way north, a bit like they did from Trondheim to Narvik. Better infantry tactics and more experienced soldiers fighting primarily terrain and then the Norwegians/Brits (no major roads in that part of the country - in 1940 the locals used shipping for transport between towns/cities on the coast). Would take more time, and probably also far more resources than the actual campaign.

The main question would be whether the Germans had that amount of resources to spare for a campaign in a peripheral theatre that had gone pear-shaped, especially with Fall Gelb coming up. Or whether they would simply cut their losses and withdraw. In both cases, the butterflies would be interesting.
 
For starters the Norwegian high command could have someone in command of Northern Norway that didnt betray the country the first chance he got on April 9.
 
Semi-random thought but supposing that things go better for the Allies in Norway and they eventually prevail, what would Germany do with the 400,000 or so troops that they stationed their in our timeline that this would free up. More bodies to throw Operation Barbarossa meatgrinder? Some to there, some to France to guard against invasion?
 
Semi-random thought but supposing that things go better for the Allies in Norway and they eventually prevail, what would Germany do with the 400,000 or so troops that they stationed their in our timeline that this would free up. More bodies to throw Operation Barbarossa meatgrinder? Some to there, some to France to guard against invasion?

A bunch of them would bee needed to garrison denmark and maybe the north coast of germany, which would be under threat.

Also, if the allies took norway, sweden might well help out and join the allies. Even if they dont, theyll chage from a pronazi neutral to a pro allied one, and the whole north coast of germany becomes threatened.
 
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