WI/AHC: Iran accepts 1982 ceasefire offer?

In September 1980, Iraq invaded Iran, believing the latter to be weakened by the recent revolution and looking to aggrandize Saddam Hussein with territorial conquests. Instead of an easy victory, though, Iran mobilized and was able to push Iraq back to its start line, with heavy losses, by mid-1982, when Saddam Hussein proposed a cease fire on the principle of the status quo ante bellum. This time, Khomeini decided that Iraq had been weakened by their failures against Iran, and ordered Iran to invade Iraq, hoping to overthrow Hussein and make Iraq into an Iranian client state. This proved a significant failure, mobilizing the opposition of most of the rest of the world and eventually bleeding Iran white with losses of both population and materiel. Eventually, after six further years of war, peace was achieved--on essentially the terms Hussein had proposed in 1982. Despite surviving the war, Iraq was also badly damaged by it; the expense of fighting the war had led the Hussein government to rack up significant debts, and that combined with continuing dreams of becoming the dominant power around the Persian Gulf played a role in his invasion of Kuwait in 1991 and, ultimately, his overthrow in 2003.

But suppose that Iran had accepted Hussein’s peace offer in 1982? Suppose that an entire generation of Iranians had not been killed or maimed in human wave attacks, that Iraq had not run up a debt of hundreds of billions of dollars maintaining and building its military, that Iran-Contra and American support for Iraq hadn’t happened? What would be the results?
 
Well, slightly higher oil prices though the late 80s.

Probably no invasion of Kuwait.

Thus not First Gulf War.

GHWBush does not get that really high approval rating from the war.

Mmm, he would govern much differently. And campaign differently...
 
I did a TL with this back in the day. Basically Iran is seen as a victor, tries to mend fences and rebuild military then deteriorating realtions leads to US-Iran war in late 1990s, where TL ended due to me stoping to write it.
 
I did a TL with this back in the day. Basically Iran is seen as a victor, tries to mend fences and rebuild military then deteriorating realtions leads to US-Iran war in late 1990s, where TL ended due to me stoping to write it.

Mend fences with who? Iraq? Saudi Arabia? The US?
 
Mend fences with who? Iraq? Saudi Arabia? The US?

Pretty much everybody but mostly West. They buy some weapons from UK but after going-out-of-bussiness-sale by Russia they switfch to Russian gear.

And situation with saudis is....tense as Iran leads more aggressive foreign policy, meddling everywhere.
 
Mending fences might be difficult. After all, Iran is Persian, not Arabic. Shiia not Sunni.

After all, that's why Saddam could unite the majority of the Arabic countries behind his crusade.

True that their would be less incentive to invade Kuwait, but I think Saddam was determined to be seen as the great leader of the Arabic nations; hence something would have happened anyway.

Saudi was scared of Saddam. They gave him $50 bn at that time just to go away.

I read somewhere that Saddam was vague about his WMD's as he was convinced that the West (US/UK) would understand tht he was not seeing them as the enmy, but Iran. He was convinced that there was no need to make war on him.

Maybe he would see his mission as the conquest of Israel. He is bound to bump into a US ally somewhere.

So, if the fog clears:

Iran-Israel war,
Iran walking into it
If Iran is in, US is in as well, but which side? Iraq or Iran?

OR

Iraq launching an attack on Saudi. The King was not fond of Saddam.

OR

The Muslim countries go with Iran, claiming Saddam is not a good Muslim and then we have a civil war in Iraq.

Somehow there were too many unsettled issues in 1982.

Ivan
 
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