WI/AHC: In WW2, Japan surrendered......Earlier.

Marshal was adamantly opposed to using the US Marines in the ETO. With the dissolution of Amphibious Forces Atlantic Fleet in mid 1942 & the withseaw of the Marines from Iceland for service in the Pacific they were gone for good. Once Japan surrendered most would end up as occupation forces across the Pacific/Asian region. The Navy might use some of the Marine air squadrons on carriers in the ETO & Marine contingents with the Navy would be more robust. Marshal had little to say about what the Navy did internally.

Conversely any Navy Construction Battalions (SeeBees) would be most useful restoring European ports & other infrastructure. Similarly parts of the flat train of mobile base support fleet would have some value unsnarllng a few of the Allied logistics problems.

We'd see a few more surface ships, carriers, and amphibs supporting Op NEPTUNE & DRAGOON or the last act operations in Greece & elsewhere.

The B29 wings are able to be redeployed to the ETO for the final act. Contributing to burning down the already ruined German industrial plant.
 
An argument has been made for the use having been a good thing: it showed the Sovs a willingness by the U.S. to use the Bomb on civilian targets (cities), which prevented Stalin (& later Sov leaders) doing anything rash...:eek:

All that showed to Stalin is the paramount urgency of getting a Soviet nuclear bomb. After all, the single firebombing raid on Tokio has killed more people than either nuclear bomb; and the firebombing raid on Dresden has probably killed about as many people as a Hiroshima-size nuke would have. There is nothing you can show by using a bomb after this, except that having such capacity is extremely important for future conflicts.
 

SsgtC

Banned
"Only" 25 thousand people died at Dresden, compared to 90-140k in Hiroshima and 40-80k in Nagasaki.
Not to mention the later deaths due to radiation sickness, cancer and birth defects.
There is nothing you can show by using a bomb after this, except that having such capacity is extremely important for future conflicts.
Except that what used to require a thousand aircraft to do can now be accomplished by a single plane.
 
What really crushed Japanese morale, both military and especially civillian, was the B-29 bombing campaign which kicked off en masse in early '45, of which the nukes were just the final stroke. The fact that the US had the ability to destroy Japanese cities at will, and could actually drop leaflets on targets beforehand warning civilians to evacuate and still succeed in their attacks, with Japanese air power powerless to resist, changed a lot of people's minds on the war situation and what the right path forward was.

Absent that, in late-'44, there'll be a lot more resistance to an OTL-like surrender even if Hirohito orders it. To quote the Pacific War Online Encyclopedia:

"Even the 'doves' [in 1944] were prepared to hold out for a negotiated surrender under which Japan would remain unoccupied; would retain control of Manchuria, Korea, and Formosa; and would try its own military leaders for war crimes."

The US would never accept this.
 
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"Only" 25 thousand people died at Dresden, compared to 90-140k in Hiroshima and 40-80k in Nagasaki.

This was however mostly due to a better bomb shelter infrastructure and generally more sturdy construction used in Germany. Japanese cities usually did not have bomb shelters until 1943 and far too few, and too flimsy, until the end of the war. A bomb shelter is not much help directly at the ground zero/in the heart of a firestorm, but massively improves your chance of survival at the edges of the blast.

Not to mention the later deaths due to radiation sickness, cancer and birth defects.

Except that what used to require a thousand aircraft to do can now be accomplished by a single plane.

Which is at this stage a technical ability, not a demonstration of how far you are prepared to go. If you do something with 1000 planes, doing the same with 1 plane does not show a stronger resolve, merely a more powerful tool of death and destruction in your possession - which must be countered ASAP.
 
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