Wi/ahc: franco Prussian war as a more general war.

Now too pull the thread back into focus before this thing converts into a flame war.
Now if we go with the op and its suggested route then i think we can assume that this is going to be balanced fight between italy and austria. How it will happen well i think if the italians did so better 1866 then we are going to have a more paranoid austria and one that is going to be targeted at italy this is a situation where they want to break itsly now this is why they might turn too france to bring italy to heel to ensure that it doesn’t get to uppity and put into its place. Now this can work for Bismarck because along with all the other reasons for war we also have what seems like the powers seemingly ganging up on italy which will look great for german pr. Now expect if this is the case then I expect that austria’s focus will be italy ( i still think the southern states will side with prussia because while austria may not be really fighting germany with frnace it does look like they are helping them)now i see three possibilities either austria smashes italy or italy smashes them now these two are the less likely but equal options what i think will be the case is balance niether side really able to knock out the other. Until france is finished at which prussia will come a knocking for which either austria just lays down its arms or fights and has its arse handed to it. The latter will likely break the empire the former we might see it continue in a deminshed state. I do think italy will likely get its irredentia. Germany may annex something it depends if bismark can fight off the pan germanists and expansionists or not. Take your pick i guess. Now a quick question what do you think would be the result of this? Or do you guys have any other ideas I could sink my teeth into?
 

gurgu

Banned
Now too pull the thread back into focus before this thing converts into a flame war.
Now if we go with the op and its suggested route then i think we can assume that this is going to be balanced fight between italy and austria. How it will happen well i think if the italians did so better 1866 then we are going to have a more paranoid austria and one that is going to be targeted at italy this is a situation where they want to break itsly now this is why they might turn too france to bring italy to heel to ensure that it doesn’t get to uppity and put into its place. Now this can work for Bismarck because along with all the other reasons for war we also have what seems like the powers seemingly ganging up on italy which will look great for german pr. Now expect if this is the case then I expect that austria’s focus will be italy ( i still think the southern states will side with prussia because while austria may not be really fighting germany with frnace it does look like they are helping them)now i see three possibilities either austria smashes italy or italy smashes them now these two are the less likely but equal options what i think will be the case is balance niether side really able to knock out the other. Until france is finished at which prussia will come a knocking for which either austria just lays down its arms or fights and has its arse handed to it. The latter will likely break the empire the former we might see it continue in a deminshed state. I do think italy will likely get its irredentia. Germany may annex something it depends if bismark can fight off the pan germanists and expansionists or not. Take your pick i guess. Now a quick question what do you think would be the result of this? Or do you guys have any other ideas I could sink my teeth into?
Just to end it. The site i posted before is made from an expert, i don't read treccani and similar because they are based on story of the winners, which i assume you know it's always the truth. and before you say it as my description says i'm a proud genoese, and is basically my favorite argument in history...

about your post, as i said, i can't see italy doing something without heavy losses or bringing in another big nation which will certainly defeat italy.( Austrian veneto electric boogaloo 2?)
 
Just to end it. The site i posted before is made from an expert, i don't read treccani and similar because they are based on story of the winners, which i assume you know it's always the truth. and before you say it as my description says i'm a proud genoese, and is basically my favorite argument in history...

about your post, as i said, i can't see italy doing something without heavy losses or bringing in another big nation which will certainly defeat italy.( Austrian veneto electric boogaloo 2?)
I made no mention of the site mainly because i had nothing to really argue with from that i saw no point. It also doesn’t help i struggle with reading italian. At most i can speak a limited broken salerno dialect my father did not really care too teach
Yeah I didn’t really read your description so fair enough. Be proud of your history I guess. But yeah.

Anyways let me continue oh yes. Ahh to the second yes well they is what i was expecting. I do understand that italy is not going too achieve success with some serious losses and they cannot by any means let the war drag on as they will just be swarmed. Too the other powers thats kinda what i was banking on if the war does brake it is definitely going to be prussia italy vs austria france. I would assume france would focus on prussia as the greater threat in which it likely goes the same as otl. Italy will most likey will most likely just spend the war trading shots with austria Until prussia gets involved and likely brings its hammer down if austria doesn’t back down it is going too get its arse wooped. I do not think this will do the empire any good as italy will probably be allowed to demand a fair bit . Russia probably wouldnt care, the german states probably wouldn’t care and not like framce can say anything to it. I can see italy getting a lot maybe not all but definitely a lot of its irredentia. If the empire doesn’t collapse it will definitely will be play second fiddle to german if bismark gets its way if it does collapse then bismark cant really say no to full unification.
Fir france well they will probably straight up cut ties with the two so that would be interesting to see all those possibilities.
So, what you think?
 
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gurgu

Banned
I made no mention of the site mainly because i had nothing to really argue with from that i saw no point.
Yeah I didn’t really read your description so fair enough. Be proud of your history I guess. But yeah.

Anyways let me continue oh yes. Ahh to the second yes well they is what i was expecting. I do understand that italy is not going too achieve success with some serious losses and they cannot by any means let the war drag on as they will just be swarmed. Too the other powers thats kinda what i was banking on if the war does brake it is definitely going to be prussia italy vs austria france. I would assume france would focus on prussia as the greater threat in which it likely goes the same as otl. Italy will most likey will most likely just spend the war trading shots with austria Until prussia gets involved and likely brings its hammer down if austria doesn’t back down it is going too get its arse wooped. I do not think this will do the empire any good as italy will probably be allowed to demand a fair bit . Russia probably wouldnt care, the german states probably wouldn’t care and not like framce can say anything to it. I can see italy getting a lot maybe not all but definitely a lot of its irredentia. If the empire doesn’t collapse it will definitely will be play second fiddle to german if bismark gets its way if it does collapse then bismark cant really say no to full unification.
Fir france well they will probably straight up cut ties with the two so that would be interesting to see all those possibilities.
So, what you think?
Russia is in good relation with Prussia, and hates Austria( Balkan reasons) so i guess they will join the Prussian alliance in order to make Austria give them Poland(Krakow is a trade inland city) and give vojvodina to Serbian tiny Slav friend.
If we have the 2 and a half emperor alliance( the quote is obvious XD) austria is doomed and as soon this happens, Nappy 3 will basically have a deja vù( i have been in this place before) of his uncle at Lipsia and might surrender without a fight.


my peace treaty ideal would be:
-Kaiser is born+ some osterreich territories
-Poland is now 2/3 in Russian hands
-if we want to humiliate Austria then Transylvania is released free
-Serbia is Stronger and pro-Russian
-Italy takes back Nizza and Savoy ( Ploembiers annulled), free hand on the pope( Germans are protestant and Russians orthodox they don't care about that old dude), and Istria/trentino ( the war is mainly for the nationalist reasons so grab your people).

UK is in it's american style isolationism and won't protest much since it's not directly threatened.


Since Russia and Germany are friends now, while Franz Joseph is crying in the corner, the santo stefano treaty might be enforced and a battenberg Bulgaria will face all the Balkans hostilities from anyone on his borders except OE( Russia guarantees). the difference would be that this Bulgaria would not need any expansion since already have it's national claims( maybe Constantinople but Russia has priority).
 
Russia is in good relation with Prussia, and hates Austria( Balkan reasons) so i guess they will join the Prussian alliance in order to make Austria give them Poland(Krakow is a trade inland city) and give vojvodina to Serbian tiny Slav friend.
If we have the 2 and a half emperor alliance( the quote is obvious XD) austria is doomed and as soon this happens, Nappy 3 will basically have a deja vù( i have been in this place before) of his uncle at Lipsia and might surrender without a fight.


my peace treaty ideal would be:
-Kaiser is born+ some osterreich territories
-Poland is now 2/3 in Russian hands
-if we want to humiliate Austria then Transylvania is released free
-Serbia is Stronger and pro-Russian
-Italy takes back Nizza and Savoy ( Ploembiers annulled), free hand on the pope( Germans are protestant and Russians orthodox they don't care about that old dude), and Istria/trentino ( the war is mainly for the nationalist reasons so grab your people).

UK is in it's american style isolationism and won't protest much since it's not directly threatened.


Since Russia and Germany are friends now, while Franz Joseph is crying in the corner, the santo stefano treaty might be enforced and a battenberg Bulgaria will face all the Balkans hostilities from anyone on his borders except OE( Russia guarantees). the difference would be that this Bulgaria would not need any expansion since already have it's national claims( maybe Constantinople but Russia has priority).
Well nice i must say. Well this is staring too look really well it would be interesting how it evolves
 

gurgu

Banned
Well nice i must say. Well this is staring too look really well it would be interesting how it evolves
i can continue in the synthetic way:

There is going to be a Balkan war slightly different:
Greece, Serbia, Romania vs Bulgaria,Montenegro,Albania,Transylvania with the last 3 joining after start fearing Serbia's desire for sea access, and Romanian expansionism.

The ottomans won't join because Russia would still threat them.

First Balkan war
forces( based on the second Balkan war OTL, modified a bit):

  • Bulgaria: 600-620k troops well trained( Krupp factory, Russian generals, also the king Alexander it's self was a skilled general)
  • Serbia : 380k troops, decently trained( french equipment)
  • Greece: 145k troops( as OTL), badly trained, their navy is the strongest thought
  • Romania: 330k troops decently trained but with old equipment and old generals
  • Albania : 50k troops, badly trained with italian equipment( italy was trying to make it a protectorate)
  • Transylvania: 200k troops, well trained( ex Austrian nation) but poorly equipped with old Austrian/Russian riffles
  • Montenegro 12k troops, they are basically a token participant
November 1899
Serbia creates the anti-Bulgarian alliance with Romania and Greece, they attack but except Romania which is able to slowly push the Serbian-Greek front is entrenched with Bulgarians holding without much problems.
after a month Bulgaria makes a deal with Albania and Transylvania, promising them Kosovo and Banat.
December 1899
the new Bulgarian friends jumps and Russia starts to support even more Bulgaria( Transylvania is obviously pro-Russian while Serbia is attacking the Bulgarian "protectorate"), while the new front makes the anti-Bulgarian-league(abl) moves forces away from the Bulgarian front thus allowing Bulgarian to stop the Romanian invasion before losing Vidin and after the dobrujan occupation while the Greek front soon starts to collapse due to it's incapacity.
January 1900
The new years starts with high morale for the Bulgarians, with greece asking peace before Athens falls and thus freeing a front while Serbia, almost closed on 3 fronts( Transylvanians had quickly occupied the Banat area trying to reach a Bulgarian border to receive supplies, but get stopped at dobreta severin)is playing full defensive trying to take out Albania to free troops and try for a peace negotiation with better terms.
February 1900
Romanian troops are expelled from Bulgarian national territories, and before the end of the month they are landlocked after the black sea coast( upper dobruja, with a good number of Bulgarians living in it) is occupied.
March 1900
Battle of Leskovac, the Serbian forces are heavily defeated and Bulgarian/Albanian forces start to rush Belgrade, while Montenegro joins The Bulgarian Faction seeking minor gains. Since defeat is inevitable Serbia surrenders unconditionally, hoping for great powers to intervene if Bulgaria seizes territories.Romania follows soon.
21 march, Sofia conference:
under Russian advice Bulgaria doesn't take almost any land to avoid inference from Germany or Britain( especially) :
- Transylvania takes the Craiova Region, creating a common border with Bulgaria, and gaining a closer access to the sea( Danube navigation way)
-Montenegro extends to novipazar
-Albania takes Kosovo and minor border adjustments in Epirus
-Bulgaria Takes all the southern river of Danube( creating a border with Russia), and land locking Romania and seizing what has remained of it's small fleet, the Greek Fleet is half seized, splitting it in equal parts with Albania( 3/4 to Bulgaria, 1/4 to Albania), minor border correction ( Salonika, Solun in Bulgarian, is taken creating a straight line border
-to makes loose any future claims a 1 year period is granted to transfer population willing to keep their culture and identity, otherwise they will be forces to learn and use only the local culture. Since only the Bulgarian Economy is the only one enough stable most of his population stays and starts using only Bulgarians, except Serbs which are expelled( which contributes to worse the little Serbian economy) while the other nation make some shuffle.

The treaty will be known as the spring treaty( 21 march is the spring equinox).


I can keep up this TL but i need at least someone else to help me, who can keep it up with the rest of Europe( america/south Asia won't change at all, only the Russian-Japanese war might have some difference).
 
Russia had already committed itself to invading galicia if the Austrians joined the the French in a war on Prussia, Hungary would likely try to declare independence to avoid participating in this war and italy would be keen to through it lot in with the winning side.
Prussia, Russia and Austria are going to carve up Austria and how they please and no one is really in a position to do anything about it.
 
Everyone on this thread is discussing Italy allying with Prussia against France and Austria, but according to AJP Taylor, the OTL Italian government including Victor Emmanuel wanted to intervene against Prussia on the side of France, and was only stopped by Italian public opinion which was pissed over the French garrison in Rome. If Italy starts sabre-rattling and threatening to join on the Prussian side, I imagine France would just cede Rome to them and the Italian government would then intervene against Prussia like they wanted to OTL. Public opinion swung towards pro-France very rapidly even during the OTL Franco-Prussian War so the public would definitely be on board.

The Austrians did not want to support France unless Italy was on board, so in an ATL where Italy joins then Austria is possibly joining too, although the Hungarians really didn't want to so they still may stay out of it. In any case you either get North German Confederation-South German states vs France and Italy or the same versus France, Italy, and Austria. Both of these outcomes look substantially worse for Prussia than the OTL Franco-Prussian war.
 
Everyone on this thread is discussing Italy allying with Prussia against France and Austria, but according to AJP Taylor, the OTL Italian government including Victor Emmanuel wanted to intervene against Prussia on the side of France, and was only stopped by Italian public opinion which was pissed over the French garrison in Rome. If Italy starts sabre-rattling and threatening to join on the Prussian side, I imagine France would just cede Rome to them and the Italian government would then intervene against Prussia like they wanted to OTL. Public opinion swung towards pro-France very rapidly even during the OTL Franco-Prussian War so the public would definitely be on board.

The Austrians did not want to support France unless Italy was on board, so in an ATL where Italy joins then Austria is possibly joining too, although the Hungarians really didn't want to so they still may stay out of it. In any case you either get North German Confederation-South German states vs France and Italy or the same versus France, Italy, and Austria. Both of these outcomes look substantially worse for Prussia than the OTL Franco-Prussian war.
Not really, Russia is still committed to invade galicia and I dont really think Italy will join France and Austria, helping the habsburgs against their previous allies who helped them gain veneto
 
Not really, Russia is still committed to invade galicia and I dont really think Italy will join France and Austria, helping the habsburgs against their previous allies who helped them gain veneto
I have too agree at this time both austria and france dislike italy and like wise its just more practical too side with prussia.
 
Not really, Russia is still committed to invade galicia and I dont really think Italy will join France and Austria, helping the habsburgs against their previous allies who helped them gain veneto

Personally I think it's more logical for Italy to join Prussia given the benefit of retrospect, but what I am saying is according to primary sources from the OTL Italian government in 1870-71, they did not think the same way and favored an alliance with France and Austria. It's also not true that Austria and France dislike Italy because if that were the case then why did Austria want to ally with Italy and France versus Prussia? What you're saying makes logical sense but it's also contradicted by OTL historical sources.

The alliance, proposed two years before 1870, between France, Italy, and Austria, was never concluded because Napoleon III [...] would never consent to the occupation of Rome by Italy.

From The Last Days of Papal Rome by De Cesare, see also The Origins of the War of 1914 by Albertini and The Struggle for Mastery in Europe by Taylor. Again, an Austro-French-Italian alliance was something proposed OTL that we have documentation of, and something that Victor Emmanuel II and the Italian government was in favor of, while we have no source that says he wanted to ally Prussia again in 1870.

It's also not hard to see why the Italian government OTL would not have wanted to go to war with both France and Austria, seeing as they already are at a disadvantage fighting France or Austria one-on-one, going to war on both fronts against both of them is pretty suicidal and they knew it.
 
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Personally I think it's more logical for Italy to join Prussia given the benefit of retrospect, but what I am saying is according to primary sources from the OTL Italian government in 1870-71, they did not think the same way and favored an alliance with France and Austria. It's also not true that Austria and France dislike Italy because if that were the case then why did Austria want to ally with Italy and France versus Prussia? What you're saying makes logical sense but it's also contradicted by OTL historical sources.



From The Last Days of Papal Rome by De Cesare, see also The Origins of the War of 1914 by Albertini and The Struggle for Mastery in Europe by Taylor. Again, an Austro-French-Italian proposal was something proposed OTL and something that Victor Emmanuel II was in favor of, while we have no source that says he wanted to ally Prussia again in 1870.
Maybe a religious question? Plus you need to remember who Savoy intermarried quite often with Bourbons and Habsburgs (Victor Emmanuel II’s late mother and wife were both Habsburg and the latter’s mother was his paternal aunt). Victor Emmanuel was also the father-in-law of Napoleon III’s cousin... Looking from a purely territorial point of view the alliance with France and Austria make no sense for Italy, but concessions/lands can be obtained also from allies and Prussia was quite scaring after the Austro Prussian War
 
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