WI/AHC:France and Germany in a world with a Hapsburg Mexico

Eugénie was the loudest, and most powerful, proponent in the council of state for both the Mexican Adventure and preventative war with Prussia. If the former is successful, as opposed to IOTL, she'll be more sated, and Louis-Napoléon will likely be able to ignore her efforts, both politically and personally, to push him into war with Germany to an extent he couldn't IOTL.

Of course on the other hand, from my reading of Eugénie, a successful Mexico might also simply make her even more ardent about the 'German Issue' - "I was right about Mexico, so you know I'm right about those pesky Prussians."

Yeah. It's something that would take someone who knows more about her than I do to judge.
 
The question(s) here will be is Bismark is successful, to what extent, and if not (or if so) who follows him, and do they attempt to emulate him or follow their own path?

If Bismarck is successful or is succeeded by another 'New Conservative' who continues to attempt to expand Prussia's influence and borders I think Berlin will quickly find itself in a situation where it's facing both Paris and Vienna.

If not then Prussia will revert to the older order, who will be perfectly content not to antagonize France, or to integrate the Southern German states, but will still face possible conflict with Austria, perhaps not translating directly to a war, but certainly economically and in terms of prestige and influence, over the German issue.
Could the NGC have democratically annexed the southern German states through integration and compromise?
 
Could the NGC have democratically annexed the southern German states through integration and compromise?

Except that the Southern German states did not want to be integrated. Even if the political winds changed in Bavaria, Württemberg, Baden, and to a lesser extent, Hesse, the monarchies of those states very emphatically did not want to bow to Wilhelm as emperor or lose any of their national sovereignty. It took the threat of French aggression IOTL to finally push them into Berlin's arms, and even then after the formation of the empire they, Bavaria and Württemberg in particular, continued to exercise considerable autonomy.

Now, I suppose you could have some sort of 1848-esque pro-unionist pan-German revolution break out in those states and demand ascension to the NGC, but Berlin would more likely send troops to put down any such uprising rather than use it to bring the southern Germans into the fold. Hell, in such a scenario you'd likely actually see Berlin keeping the southern Germans at arms length for fear of such radicalism spreading back into the NGC and Prussia specifically.

So without a war of foreign aggression against the German states, I sincerely doubt you're going to see final German unification. Even in a scenario of a Second Austro-Prussian War those states will likely stand by the sidelines rather than risk the fate of Saxony, Hanover, and the rest from the last round.
 
Except that the Southern German states did not want to be integrated. Even if the political winds changed in Bavaria, Württemberg, Baden, and to a lesser extent, Hesse, the monarchies of those states very emphatically did not want to bow to Wilhelm as emperor or lose any of their national sovereignty. It took the threat of French aggression IOTL to finally push them into Berlin's arms, and even then after the formation of the empire they, Bavaria and Württemberg in particular, continued to exercise considerable autonomy.

Now, I suppose you could have some sort of 1848-esque pro-unionist pan-German revolution break out in those states and demand ascension to the NGC, but Berlin would more likely send troops to put down any such uprising rather than use it to bring the southern Germans into the fold. Hell, in such a scenario you'd likely actually see Berlin keeping the southern Germans at arms length for fear of such radicalism spreading back into the NGC and Prussia specifically.

So without a war of foreign aggression against the German states, I sincerely doubt you're going to see final German unification. Even in a scenario of a Second Austro-Prussian War those states will likely stand by the sidelines rather than risk the fate of Saxony, Hanover, and the rest from the last round.
It was a war that scared the SGS into Wilhelm I's arms, but Germany's gonna unify just as Italy's gonna unify.
Even if they avoid a war with France (which is unlikely, and I understand wolf_brother was saying an exact FPW was impossible; which it is) which I find unlikely because France believed germany to be its "bitch" and Prussia was no longer going to take that.

But lets assume France and Prussia go on without a fight, eventually the Prussian Industrial Complex will make the southern countries dominated by Prussia and eventually people are gonna stop carring about religious issues (all they have to do is look at the 30 years' war and what religion did to germany) and realize a stronger germany is in their best interests.

Meanwhile, by the late 1800s Mexico is gonna surpass France in population and its not gonna wanna be a French puppet anymore. This could very well lead Mexico into the hands of Austria, and if it does then Austria will never form an alliance with France. So Germany still forms almost 9 times out of 10 and Mexico leaves french influence. Possibly coming under German influence if their is still an Austro-German Reaproachment.

This will put alot of pressure on France.
 
It was a war that scared the SGS into Wilhelm I's arms, but Germany's gonna unify just as Italy's gonna unify.

That's a very romantic notion, but not one that I'm inclined to agree with, or one that I think you can viably present. German unification happened as it did IOTL for very specific reasons and movements. There's no reason to believe that things will happen the same, or analogous to, what they did IOTL with a different set of circumstances.
 
That's a very romantic notion, but not one that I'm inclined to agree with, or one that I think you can viably present. German unification happened as it did IOTL for very specific reasons and movements. There's no reason to believe that things will happen the same, or analogous to, what they did IOTL with a different set of circumstances.

Seconded.

And southern Germany has more than just 'religious issues" at stake here.

Meanwhile, by the late 1800s Mexico is gonna surpass France in population and its not gonna wanna be a French puppet anymore. This could very well lead Mexico into the hands of Austria, and if it does then Austria will never form an alliance with France. So Germany still forms almost 9 times out of 10 and Mexico leaves french influence. Possibly coming under German influence if their is still an Austro-German Reaproachment.

This will put alot of pressure on France.

Having a larger population doesn't mean being even close to equal to France in power, and thus being able to do anything about being a French puppet.
 
Okay I've got a few more ideas for this thread so I'll start by providing a proper POD and then I'll see how you all like playing with it. This is inspired by Vault Boy's post in this thread.

  1. In TTL imperial General Agustín Enrique Brincourt includes sending spies and runners into the state and city of Chihuahua as he makes is preparations to invade the state.
  2. The city of Chihuahua suffers a small malaria outbreak (perhaps caused by the arrival of the spies? ;)) and Benito Juarez is infected.
  3. On July 22 Brincourt crosses the banks of Rio Florido into Ciudad Jiménez as in OTL. He is then met by one of his runners supplied with the information that Juarez is gravely ill and bedridden.
  4. With this information Brincourt decides to avoid going to Valle de Allende as he did in OTL and takes a more direct route toward Chihuahua along the same path Jaurez took to the city during his escape there.
  5. On July 28 the French forces with an estimated 2,500 men arrive at the outskirts of Chihuahua City. Brincourt is met with informantion that Jaurez and his cabinet escaped from the city the day before but are traveling at a slow pace due to Jaurez's condition.
  6. Brincourt orders his forces to follow the trail of Juarez's people and finally catches up with and captures them on July 31st.
  7. Juarez is given medical aid and recovers well enough to stand trail.
  8. Due to this being before the time the Black Decree was issued in OTL Jaurez's sentence is to be exiled from Mexico's boarders and is traveled by ship to the shores of Cuba. Ironically much like Santa Anna.
  9. Jaurez remains in exile there but travels to the USA several times over the following years to plea for aid in recapturing his country and to reinstall his government but the aid is never given. Over the course of time loyalists to Juarez and the Republicans also travel from Mexico to settle in Cuba and thus do not bother the maintenance of the 2nd Mexican Empire.

Map of OTL routes from here.

Now with that set up I think that there may be ample oppertunities to create an alternate FPW around 1873. After reading some of SilverSwimmer's The Discord that Follows I think that the chaos in 1873 provided by the global financial crisis, the failing of the 1st Spanish Republic, and Nap III's failing health (which could be made worse in TTL) and looming OTL date of death (which could be sooner in TTL;)) provide many oppertunities for Bismark or someone else clever enough to provide "the proper push in the right direction" to cause France to make war on the Germanies. Also various unknown issues that may arise in the southern German states that did not in OTL could provide oppertunities as well.
 
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