WI/AHC: Duke James Stuart of Modena

James was offered the Polish throne at one point but turned it down since it might/would have interfered with his attempts to reclaim the English/Scottish thrones.

He'd have probably turned this down too.

James II, not JFES. And it was in 1696 - after Sobieski died. James II was LXIV's original candidate for Poland, but turned it down for reasons mentioned. And considering Conti (the French candidate) got the most votes, I wouldn't be surprised if the French bribes can do the same for Jakub I/II.
 
James II, not JFES. And it was in 1696 - after Sobieski died. James II was LXIV's original candidate for Poland, but turned it down for reasons mentioned. And considering Conti (the French candidate) got the most votes, I wouldn't be surprised if the French bribes can do the same for Jakub I/II.

Well another possiblilty is that JFES inherits Modena, still married Clementina Sobieski and in 1733, with French backing, tries to make a play for Poland for one of his sons when Augustus the Strong dies. If it works he has a new powerbase to launch a 1745 rebellion in the UK without just relying on Highlanders. Duke of Modena, King of Poland and heir to Scotland, Ireland, England (and France).
 
Well another possiblilty is that JFES inherits Modena, still married Clementina Sobieski and in 1733, with French backing, tries to make a play for Poland for one of his sons when Augustus the Strong dies. If it works he has a new powerbase to launch a 1745 rebellion in the UK without just relying on Highlanders. Duke of Modena, King of Poland and heir to Scotland, Ireland, England (and France).

Not likely that France will support him in that regard. France was more eager about it's own candidate - the king's father-in-law, Stanislaw Leszczynski - becoming king. They had the older of James Sobieski's two surviving daughters at court - the duchesse de Bouillon - and they never pushed her forward. As I understand it, Stanczyk was their first choice, the Comte de Clermont France's second. However, Clermont's candidacy hinged upon him marrying a Polish heiress.

So, kill Stanczyk off ahead of schedule (maybe just after Marie becomes queen of France) or let the Regent live and thus secure the marriage of Louis XV and Mariana Vittoria (negating the Polish marriage), and then France may support the Stuarts to Poland if they still marry Clementina - although the duchesse de Bouillon's children would be genealogically senior, and also Charlotte Sobieska was the only daughter still alive at James Sobieski's death.
 
Well another possiblilty is that JFES inherits Modena, still married Clementina Sobieski and in 1733, with French backing, tries to make a play for Poland for one of his sons when Augustus the Strong dies. If it works he has a new powerbase to launch a 1745 rebellion in the UK without just relying on Highlanders. Duke of Modena, King of Poland and heir to Scotland, Ireland, England (and France).

IDK if Clementina (or the marriage, for that matter) will be any happier if she's duchess of Modena. In a way I pity her (more than Luise of Stolberg) but I feel she herself caused much in the way of her own unhappiness. As the one ambassador wrote: "they [James and Clementina] are never of a mind on a subject, even if they disagree ever so slightly, neither will give an inch to the other".
 
IDK if Clementina (or the marriage, for that matter) will be any happier if she's duchess of Modena. In a way I pity her (more than Luise of Stolberg) but I feel she herself caused much in the way of her own unhappiness. As the one ambassador wrote: "they [James and Clementina] are never of a mind on a subject, even if they disagree ever so slightly, neither will give an inch to the other".

Not really. In my books on the Jacobite Court its clear that EVERYONE hated John Hay, his wife and brother-in-law James Murray, the Queen just finally expressed it.
 
Not really. In my books on the Jacobite Court its clear that EVERYONE hated John Hay, his wife and brother-in-law James Murray, the Queen just finally expressed it.
So there was at least one idiot everybody agreed he was an idiot (and his family are not so far away in term of idiocy from him).
 
So there was at least one idiot everybody agreed he was an idiot (and his family are not so far away in term of idiocy from him).

Basically, arrogant idiots who thought they were smarter then they actually were and did more damage for the Jacobite Movement then anyone/thing else.
 
Basically, arrogant idiots who thought they were smarter then they actually were and did more damage for the Jacobite Movement then anyone/thing else.

So, can we get rid of the Hays and thus ensure a happier marriage? Maybe have someone else supplant John in whatever capacity he served.

But also, JFES was a relatively sharp tack in comparison with his dad, surely he must've realized that the Hays were bad if everyone was saying so?
 
So, can we get rid of the Hays and thus ensure a happier marriage? Maybe have someone else supplant John in whatever capacity he served.

But also, JFES was a relatively sharp tack in comparison with his dad, surely he must've realized that the Hays were bad if everyone was saying so?

You would think so, but remember that one of the most fatal traits of the Stuarts was their devotion to their favorites. When James III met the Hays and Murrey it was the time after the '15, when he was expelled from France and forced to move to Avignon and later Italy. So a period of transition. To James the Scots represented people who were loyal to him and willing to put their money where their mouth is, so to speak. He wanted advisers close to his age and thought that appointing Protestant Scots would help win him favor in Britain. Unfortunately this obviously backfired.

The Jacobites hated their haughty and arrogant personalities, considering them upstarts. James III's Catholic supporters, specifically the King and Queen of Spain, disliked the appointment of Protestants. Finally the English hated the appointment of Scots, fearing that in the event of a Restoration the government would be dominated by the Scottish. Matters came to a head when the Earl of Inverness was made Governor to the Prince of Wales. This led to the Queen fleeing to a convent and remaining there for two years. Of course it didn't help that Murrey and his sister had treated the Queen like crap when she first arrived in Rome, persuading the King to deny her an independent Household or attendants worthy of her rank.

Basically it was a perfect storm the ended up making James III look like a fool, horribly damaged the Jacobite movement and could be indirectly blamed for insuring that the Stuarts died in exile rather then being restored to their thrones.
 
I think post-1715 the odds were always favouring the Stuarts remaining in exile but you are absolutely right that JFES decisions in the aftermath of the '15 made it much more likely.
 
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