WI/AHC: Dieppe Raid Succeeds?

But Hitler was worried about losing Norway, as well. Thus huge garrisons that did nothing after 1940

"Little minds try to defend everything at once, but sensible people look at the main point only; they parry the worst blows and stand a little hurt if thereby they avoid a greater one. If you try to hold everything, you hold nothing."
-- Frederick the Great


Hitler knew about that saying, yet still did the opposite
 
Still if this raid works exactly as planned it means all of france is no longer secure.

Where are you going to commit reserves?

To some place in the ass end of nowhere which your enemies have already proven to incompetent to take,or to the one place you know they are dangerous and you know they will inevitably have to try to take from you.

Hitler was a moron in some regards but he did have some moments of clarity,for example he didnt bother feeding reinforcements to the lenningrad front because there was no need,he instead directed them to the south and center which was the focus of the biggest soviet offensives.

Getting him to see france as the most vital part of his defense is easy once you give him such a blatant example.
 
Still if this raid works exactly as planned it means all of france is no longer secure.

Where are you going to commit reserves?

To some place in the ass end of nowhere which your enemies have already proven to incompetent to take,or to the one place you know they are dangerous and you know they will inevitably have to try to take from you.

Hitler was a moron in some regards but he did have some moments of clarity,for example he didnt bother feeding reinforcements to the lenningrad front because there was no need,he instead directed them to the south and center which was the focus of the biggest soviet offensives.

Getting him to see france as the most vital part of his defense is easy once you give him such a blatant example.

So what your saying is that a sucessful Dieppe raid would result in more troops being Sent to France?


That was the main purpose of the Dieppe raid - to strip German troops from the East and elsewhere - to show Stalin that Britain was serious about fighting the Germans - and to obviously 'hit back'

So if this resulted in Germany having to move troops around then we could consider the Dieppe raid a complete Success
 
So what your saying is that a sucessful Dieppe raid would result in more troops being Sent to France?


That was the main purpose of the Dieppe raid - to strip German troops from the East and elsewhere - to show Stalin that Britain was serious about fighting the Germans - and to obviously 'hit back'

So if this resulted in Germany having to move troops around then we could consider the Dieppe raid a complete Success

Sure it gets the germans attention and gives the british buddy points with stalin but it also makes D-Day a lot harder and greatly increases the potential of it failing altogether.

Without D-Day winning we still have back and forth battles in the east(even if the lower available reserves didnt force the germans to act smarter) and a stalemate in italy,such a war could well see europe nuked if not red.
 
How about the Africa Corps? Or has anybody considered all the reinforcements that went to North Africa? Troops in Norway, the Balkans, Germany proper, the Low Countries, Denmark, the Caucasus and quiet sectors of the east could be taken without impacting Stalingrad. I hope that North Africa is cleared early while the troops that went to North Africa remain in Sicily.

Clearing North Africa of German troops as a result of Dieppe!!!

This is a massive win for Britain. Talk about the indirect approach!!!!

With out the DAK the Italians - good as they could be - are stuffed

More resources to go to the Far East much earlier than OTL - Suez no longer threatened - and Aircraft based from the North African Coast can dominate the Med and bombers can launch attacks on most of Italy earlier than OTL.
 
And it saves massive amounts of otherwise doomed axis soldiers to fight on as well as loads of equipment,and it probably makes italy way more defended and a lot more willing to keep resisting now that its army hasnt been ruined even further by hitlers lunatic plans.

This all semse to point to success at Dieppe being counterproductive in the long run if you include all the butterflies like decreased allied competence and better axis foresight and luck with all this playing right into their advantage.
 
Sure it gets the germans attention and gives the british buddy points with stalin but it also makes D-Day a lot harder and greatly increases the potential of it failing altogether.

Without D-Day winning we still have back and forth battles in the east(even if the lower available reserves didnt force the germans to act smarter) and a stalemate in italy,such a war could well see europe nuked if not red.

Unlikely in the extreme

Lets assume even for a moment that the decision was made to reinforce the defenses beyond what was already being attempted

How much more and where?

How many more troops?

Normandy was initially not going to be reinforced because basically its not a port and any invasion there would not be able to sustain a large enough force across the beaches - so it was 'inconcievable' that the Allies would make their Assault their - or so conventional wisdom would have told us at the time.

Rommel however when visiting in late 1943 after he had taken over noticed how similair Normandy was to Salerno and decided that Normandy was a possible landing zone and that the defences should be 'beefed up'.

Before that the defences at Normandy were very light and improved defences as a result of a sucessful Dieppe raid are still likely to focus overwhelmingly on Ports and not otherwise random stretches of beach.
 
The actual results of the raid were more nuanced than that IIRC - the flanking commando attacks taking out shore batteries went reasonably well; it was the central attack on the town itself that turned into a disaster as the assault force found it difficult to take out bunkers and anti-tank obstacles, leading to the development of AVREs.

These lessons might not have been learned in Italy but on the next daylight landing in Europe.:eek:

The more interesting reaction would have been the German one - a greater focus on the Atlantic Wall.

The German reaction to a more succesful Dieppe might actualy have been the opposite to what some people think. Rather than making an ever Harder crust to halt the invasion on the landing beaches. They might have gone for a defense in depth with more mobile reserves. This would have required more mobile divisions and the resources to support them (good for the Russians) and good for the Allies later to issolate, imobilise and pound with air power.

Either of those would be really interesting consequences, and could really shift the dynamic of the war. I agree that it makes SLEDGEHAMMER or ROUNDUP less likely, but I'd be interested to see how an alt-Normandy invasion would go.

What about the consequences of successfully recovering a four-rotor Enigma?
 
Won't a successful Dieppe raid lead the allies to believe that they can take a port by direct assault.

Therefore no need for Mulberries, etc. as Overlord will now include the seizure of Cherbourg n the first day. Failure as per OTL Dieppe would then have serious effect on future operations & may be one of the only ways that Overlord could fail.
 
Won't a successful Dieppe raid lead the allies to believe that they can take a port by direct assault.

Therefore no need for Mulberries, etc. as Overlord will now include the seizure of Cherbourg n the first day. Failure as per OTL Dieppe would then have serious effect on future operations & may be one of the only ways that Overlord could fail.

Unlikely. My take is a sucessful operation Jubilee, or Rutter would have to scale back the direct assualt part of the op & make the adjacent flanking landing the main effort. Even if the direct assault succeeds casualties are liable to be so heavy as to show the wisdom of tradition. Beyond that the Allies made three corps size landings to seize ports in Op Torch plus the failed Operation Reservist, one in Op Husky, one in Op Baytown, nearly made one @ Naples but ran Op. Avalanche instead. So there were multiple opportunities to be disasuaded of the wisdom of attacking a port directly.

Then there was US Army infantry doctrine long set in the officers school house, that enemy force is to be outflanked whenever possible. The Brits might be stupid enough to forget 5,000 years of military wisdom but both officer corps screwing this up? Unlikely.
 
redeployment of divisions

For those of you who speculated that the OKW would send troops to france from the eastern front: This happened with the OTL raid. LSSAH was deployed away from the eastern front, even though Fall Blau was rolling.
 
For those of you who speculated that the OKW would send troops to france from the eastern front: This happened with the OTL raid. LSSAH was deployed away from the eastern front, even though Fall Blau was rolling.

They also started a program of improving the port defenses. a lot of plans were laid for fortifications, wire, mines, clearing fields of fire, AT ditches, & those were executed as resources allowed. However the strategy remained on of a large central reserve, strong port garissons, and only outposts on the rural beaches. It was assumed that shut out of the ports a invading army would soon collapse. rommels directive to fortify the beaches came from recognition the Allies had repeatedly invaded Italy without direct benefit of a large port.

My guess is a sucessful Dieppie raid causes the improvemnts to the port defenses to accelerate.
 
Top