WI/AHC - Consequences of a screwed Mexico

What if ATL Mexico experienced a further or significantly worse series of catastrophic territorial losses against its neighbors compared to OTL, whether against the US, Guatemala or a secessionist Yucatan/etc (that possibly ends up being or not being a Maya state) leading to it having the following borders up to the present day?
 

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Paradoxically enough, depending on other circumstances, they might be more prosperous. In such geographically tricky places at our current technological level, a small size is not a bad thing as it makes control easier
 
Paradoxically enough, depending on other circumstances, they might be more prosperous. In such geographically tricky places at our current technological level, a small size is not a bad thing as it makes control easier

Would it have made this ATL Mexico prosperous and stable enough down the road to actually consider giving the green light to building a canal across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, despite the OTL costs (and potential limitations) of the latter or would this TL still rule it out entirely?
 
One interesting thing is that the UK got most of it's post-Victorian Oil from Mexico, so if the US and UK are ever at war, the UK won't be able to fully utilize their navy. Conversely, the new oil will allow the US to have a larger 19th century navy than IOTL
 
One interesting thing is that the UK got most of it's post-Victorian Oil from Mexico, so if the US and UK are ever at war, the UK won't be able to fully utilize their navy. Conversely, the new oil will allow the US to have a larger 19th century navy than IOTL

It does seem like ATL US would gain a significant chunk of OTL Mexico's oil (and gas) though it depends whether they approach things differently compared to OTL.

So such a scenario would basically accelerate the US's rise and the UK's decline, know the US had a policy of encouraging the UK to give up its empire (especially during and after WW2). Would it have been enough to wake the UK out of its complacency via a more competitive showing in the Second Industrial Revolution against Germany and the US?

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Another consequence of an ATL screwed Mexico would be how it would fare any differently in the Second French intervention compared to OTL.
 
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