WI/AHC: Communist South Africa

With a timeline of sometime between post world war I and world war II, have south africa become socialist.
 

Lusitania

Donor
Revolution. But they be fighting not only white South African army but the commonwealth also. Also find it difficult for Soviet Union be able to both train and supply the blacks
 
With a timeline of sometime between post world war I and world war II, have south africa become socialist.
While being used as cannon fodder in Britian's WWI African campaigns, a clique of disgruntled officers becomes politicized and orchestrates a coup d'etat upon their return to South Africa. Where if anywhere it goes from there is up in the air. (and it's worth noting that a lot of early socialist thought ignored the colonial issue or outright sought to perpetuate it in full, so it's not like marxist revolution = automatic end to white rule).
 

Lusitania

Donor
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rand_Rebellion

Seems like one of the more likely options. Would theoretically lead to a South Africa that is both radically socialist/communist and firmly dedicated to white supremacy.
But one that would be shunned by Soviets for their support for it would rob them of moral support for the liberation of blacks elsewhere in the continent.

If it would come to be in someways be counter to communist support for blacks in sorounding colonies.
 
But one that would be shunned by Soviets for their support for it would rob them of moral support for the liberation of blacks elsewhere in the continent.

If it would come to be in someways be counter to communist support for blacks in sorounding colonies.
The Rand rebellion was before decolonization and not like the Soviets didn't cooperate with Racists when it suited them
 

Lusitania

Donor
The Rand rebellion was before decolonization and not like the Soviets didn't cooperate with Racists when it suited them
Yes it was but either the Soviets throw the communist South Africa under the bus after 1945 or loose their moral high ground with Blacks fighting for liberation.
 
Yes it was but either the Soviets throw the communist South Africa under the bus after 1945 or loose their moral high ground with Blacks fighting for liberation.
If South Africa goes for separate black homelands, The soviets could argue South African racism is not an issue given blacks are not South African citizens. They could also just condemn the racism but just ignore any sanctions and co operate with South Africa.
 

Lusitania

Donor
If South Africa goes for separate black homelands, The soviets could argue South African racism is not an issue given blacks are not South African citizens. They could also just condemn the racism but just ignore any sanctions and co operate with South Africa.
I think you missing my point, Soviets after war don't give a crap about sanctions what I was talking about was their support of blacks both insurgencies and newly independent countries. They could loose part of their influence and colonial countries can show how Soviets are supporting a white minority government. Plus once the Chism with China happens they could very easily arm the blacks in the homelands.
 
But one that would be shunned by Soviets for their support for it would rob them of moral support for the liberation of blacks elsewhere in the continent.

If it would come to be in someways be counter to communist support for blacks in sorounding colonies.

Well this would be early enough that I think the Soviets would be desperate enough to support their South African comrades. At this period the SU is extremely isolated internationally and desperate for pretty much any foreign trade they can get. If the South Africans are literally the only other communist/socialist state in the world I think the Soviets would go for it.
 
They could loose part of their influence and colonial countries can show how Soviets are supporting a white minority government.
The US and Co support for South Africa and Rhodesia didn't effect their influence in Africa. Maybe it could hurt the Soviets with MPLA or FRELIMO but they could find other proxies.
 
I think you missing my point, Soviets after war don't give a crap about sanctions what I was talking about was their support of blacks both insurgencies and newly independent countries. They could loose part of their influence and colonial countries can show how Soviets are supporting a white minority government. Plus once the Chism with China happens they could very easily arm the blacks in the homelands.

This is in 1922. The Soviets are extremely isolated with essentially no foreign allies or trading partners. Everyone else in the world hates the SU and wants it too fail. The idea of decolonization is still decades away.
 

Lusitania

Donor
This is in 1922. The Soviets are extremely isolated with essentially no foreign allies or trading partners. Everyone else in the world hates the SU and wants it too fail. The idea of decolonization is still decades away.
Yes I stated after 1946 that things would change. The Soviets position would need to be looked upon. They would abandon South Africa leavevit on its own and throw their support towards other groups.

We could have a similar circumstance of Ethiopia and Eritrea where it was two communist countries fighting each other.
 
Yes I stated after 1946 that things would change. The Soviets position would need to be looked upon. They would abandon South Africa leavevit on its own and throw their support towards other groups.
I doubt Ethiopia,Somalia,Benin or other African countries are going to oppose the Soviet Union over South Africa .
 
But one that would be shunned by Soviets for their support for it would rob them of moral support for the liberation of blacks elsewhere in the continent.

If it would come to be in someways be counter to communist support for blacks in sorounding colonies.
It's 1922 my dude, the Russian Civil War isn't even over yet. OP doesn't require it to be Soviet-aligned in the Cold War, or even for it to survive the interwar period. If anything, the only question regarding a Rand Rebellion South Africa is how much effort London would need to invest into toppling it.
 
The best POD would be for the Afrikaners to somehow adopt communism as the vehicle for their national/ tribal identity instead of quasi-fascist right wing nationalism. There were labor oriented currents in white South African politics in the 1920s and 1930s. I don't know how you get this, but once an Afrikaner based South African Communist Party defeats the United Party you have possibilities.

The main problem is what happens afterwords. Because if an Afrikaner based (actually where they get their support doesn't matter) Communist Party takes power in South Africa the UK, backed by the USA, will move to shut that down ASAP. You need to put in a Cuban missile crisis style confrontation in the Cape to get the USSR to intervene to thwart the inevitable Anglo-American attempt to take down this government.

Afterwards, the South African Communist government abolishes the monarchy, changes the constitution, institutes homelands, and institutes repressive security controls that eventually extend to the white population. All these things were done at some point by the Nats IOTL. Western countries won't trade with them, so they will be dependent on Soviet bloc support.

The homelands will look more like Soviet republics and be somewhat more viable and a better deal for the African population than the Apartheid homelands. The ideological justification will be different. After Stalin died, the Soviet Union and aligned regimes avoided executing dissidents, so in this timeline the Rivonia trials result in long sentences and no executions. Race relations will be somewhat better but the economic situation will be worse since western capitalists will turn against the regime much earlier. It goes away right after fall of the Soviet Union, just like the Nationalist government.

Actually the biggest changes would be with the neighboring states. Even a Afrikaner Communist government in South Africa has no reason to support neighboring Portuguese colonies or the Ian Smith regime (especially as Portugal is a member of NATO). These are all replaced by African communist or socialist governments much sooner than IOTL, who maintain friendly relations with Pretoria and don't ask that many questions about how South Africa is government. Namibia is given formal independence and goes the same way. You may get a communist government imposed on Botswana, I suspect the monarchies in Swaziland and Lesotho will be left alone and finlandized.

Also the ANC will be changed without the alliance with the SACP. I suspect that it will still be socialist but will be much weaker, especially early in its history. Opposition movements aligned with the churches, the Zulus, and the liberals (though anything on the lines of what became the Progressive Federal/ Democratic Party would be banned) would be more significant.
 
The main problem is what happens afterwords. Because if an Afrikaner based (actually where they get their support doesn't matter) Communist Party takes power in South Africa the UK, backed by the USA, will move to shut that down ASAP. You need to put in a Cuban missile crisis style confrontation in the Cape to get the USSR to intervene to thwart the inevitable Anglo-American attempt to take down this government.
In the 20s and 30s the USSR can't really threaten the UK in any meaningful way, it simply lacks the power projection.
 
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