WI/AHC: Balts and Slavs switch "roles"

What if, in the aftermath of the first wave of migrations in the Roman Empire, the Slavs were the ones to remain in their homeland (let's assume Pripyat-Ukraine for the sake of this prompt - I know their precise homeland is still disputed, but we can make assumptions here), fiercely trying to resist all foreign pressure, while the Balts begin a period of migration across Eastern Europe? How would the history of the region change if this were to happen?

At the top of my head, here's what I can think of:

* Balts were located to the north of Slavs, so their migration directions might be different. North is always possible, but then they'll probably reach much farther than OTL Slavs, maybe up to Finland? The Balkans are likely too far to be reached within a reasonable timeframe, but OTL Poland, Czechia, eastern Germany and maybe the northern Balkans are up for grabs.

* During their great migration, the Slavs were still more of less united, their languages only began to split in the 8th-9th century, IIRC, while Balts split off into different tribes much earlier. Western Balts began to coalesce into different tribes with different languages as early as 5th century BC according to some accounts. Thus, due to this earlier cultural distinction, the Balts may split further, possibly into two culture groups, I dunno.

* Would there be a TTL Kievan Rus' equivalent? Would Slavs be able to pull a "Grand Duchy of Lithuania" and conquer some of Baltic territories if they somehow end up disunited?

What do you guys think?
 
You can't make any kind of predictions based on this other than a lot of Eastern Europe would be speaking a Baltic language instead of Slavic. Nobody could know what kind of states or empires would be established, or what kind of breakdown into linguistics groups would happen. It is too general a POD and too far in the past.

The Slavs moved into the area as a result of the migrations of the barbarians into the Roman Empire, and didn't enter history until they began to encounter the Byzantines around 500-600, and the German around 800-1000. Now, it'll be Baltic speakers who do that. How that changes things is anyone's wild guess.
 
You can't make any kind of predictions based on this other than a lot of Eastern Europe would be speaking a Baltic language instead of Slavic. Nobody could know what kind of states or empires would be established, or what kind of breakdown into linguistics groups would happen. It is too general a POD and too far in the past.

The Slavs moved into the area as a result of the migrations of the barbarians into the Roman Empire, and didn't enter history until they began to encounter the Byzantines around 500-600, and the German around 800-1000. Now, it'll be Baltic speakers who do that. How that changes things is anyone's wild guess.
There still are a few things that can change and be traced as I pointed out above. For example, the location of the Baltic homeland can have a big effect on which places they reach during the migration. A Balkan Peninsula without a Baltic/Slavic invasion would probably look very different from OTL.

I'm not asking for any concrete changes or predictions, just some of the things that could change with such a PoD.
 
Sure, I'll take a wild stab at this, why not.

Slavic history, at least in terms of the South Slavs and the Bulgarians in particular, was affected significantly by their position on/near the steppe. As I recall, it was the Avar and Bulgar forays into the Balkans that provided the opportunity for Slavic migration there; the Slavs provided much of the manpower for these nomadic confederations, so much so that the Bulgars eventually assimilated completely with their Slav subjects (and the Avars might have too, had they not been destroyed). If the Slavs "stay home" and the Balts don't migrate that far south, you get a very different history of Pannonia and the Balkans. In an immediate sense, the people who benefit the most might be the Gepids; perhaps their Pannonian state endures longer, or it doesn't and they take the place of the Slavs as migrants/invaders/Avar clients in Byzantine territory, and the Balkans end up speaking a Germanic language.
 
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