WI/AHC: Austro-Hungarian Empire survives

A combination of what if and the alternate history challenge, find a way for the Austro-Hungarian Empire to survive and live up to the beginning (at the least) of the 21st century. For it to survive to meet the standards for this what if, it must at least retain Austria, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, bonus points if they still can have a small coast line (possibly retain Slovenia and Croatia)

Then, explain what sort of differences might occur in the timeline, and what influences a surviving Austro-Hungarian Empire could have on the rest of the 20th century.

The POD can be a CP victory, the Allies not forcing the Empire to break apart, or whatever you think will work to keep it around.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
A combination of what if and the alternate history challenge, find a way for the Austro-Hungarian Empire to survive and live up to the beginning (at the least) of the 21st century. For it to survive to meet the standards for this what if, it must at least retain Austria, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia, bonus points if they still can have a small coast line (possibly retain Slovenia and Croatia)

Then, explain what sort of differences might occur in the timeline, and what influences a surviving Austro-Hungarian Empire could have on the rest of the 20th century.

The POD can be a CP victory, the Allies not forcing the Empire to break apart, or whatever you think will work to keep it around.

It is a quite easy POD. A strong CP win gets you A-H surviving until today as more likely than not. With a cold peace, it is likely. Avoid A-H in any WW1, part2 - and it becomes easier. Have the Hapsburg plan for Poland, it become easier (you isolated the Czechs from Russia with slavic nation hostile to Russia. WW1 should fix the Southern Slav issue.

There are many POD and combination of POD where the CP wins WW1, so it is hard to give exact details, but some common themes will show up. The Hungarian nobles have to lose power to the wider voters, if you skip this, you get Greater Austria and Greater Hungary surviving as two nations. Polish nationalism has to be worked out. A-H was prepared to give up Polish Galicia, but if we assume the Germans call the shot in Poland, then we need Germany either accepting Galicia transfer or Germany/russia actions making Poland feel it needs a friendly A-H. The Czechs will learn to live with some autonomy. Croatian can will stay as long as Italy claims the coast line. Serbs will suffer and be repressed. By giving minorities in Hungary more rights after crushing Hungarian nobles, then they are likely OK.


Note: Butterflying away WW1 also works with different butterflies.
 
How about a scenario where the Allies win, but the result is closer to a draw. Germany is punished much less and A-H is not carved up. The biggest changes on the map would be the re-establishment of Poland, essentially a reversal of the partitioning of the 18th century, to create a buffer state with a single ethnic identity. You still create Yugoslavia as a "reward" to Serbia, destined to become metastable late in the century, but not a driving force until then.
 
Maybe Austria-Hungary could remain, albeit in different form. What if after the war, Austria and Hungary split, like in the map below, with red going to Austria and the light and dark grey going to Hungary?

Cisleithanien_Donaumonarchie.png
 

BlondieBC

Banned
How about a scenario where the Allies win, but the result is closer to a draw. Germany is punished much less and A-H is not carved up. The biggest changes on the map would be the re-establishment of Poland, essentially a reversal of the partitioning of the 18th century, to create a buffer state with a single ethnic identity. You still create Yugoslavia as a "reward" to Serbia, destined to become metastable late in the century, but not a driving force until then.

Sure, especially if the war ends before mid-1918. Past that date and you have to think about POD that help with the food situation. There are a few of these.

Poland is easy, since A-H is willing to trade Polish Galicia for a Hapsburg on the throne. Since the Crown Prince to the King remained a senior commander in the Polish Army up to the early 1920's, the Poles are likely fine with this choice. In a strategic sense, both Russia and German benefit from a buffer state. So does A-H. Now Russia will be hostile to Poland.

Poland make just out of Russian land is also workable.

I find a reward to Serbia as unlikely, but you could write a TL where this happens. In a easier peace, it is not even certain Serbia continues to exist. Will France really put Serbian interest over regaining sacred French soil? UK put Serbia ahead of Belgium? Much harder.

Even in a cold peace heading towards a minor loss for the CP, one can easily see A-H keeping most of its land. Maybe lose a little of the Italian plain, maybe gain a little. May lose Polish Galicia. Gain or losses a little around Serbia. Gains or lose a little in the Ukraine. But the core inside the ring of high mountains remains.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Avoid WW1, and then just hope for EXTREME luck. A reform is needed and hopefully it will be enough (it might not). And hopefully no one tries to derail it (Magyars, Habsburgs, ethnic tensions in Bohemia etc.) It's possible but very hard. The Empire would probably has to become more like a loose confederacy with a personal union to survive.
 
Top