Sorry, 2014 was just too Republican a year and KY by then too red a state. If you want McConnell defeated, 2008 is a much better chance. Every poll from October 4 on had McConnell leading. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kentucky I know that as late as September some polls (though not most of them) gave Grimes a slight lead, but voters tend to return to their normal party affiliation toward the end of the campaign.