WI/AHC: A Castilian Wars of the Roses Analogue?

In the 13th century, the eldest son of the king of Castile, Alfonso X, Fernando de la Cerda, died in 1275, leaving two underage sons. His brother, Sancho IV, succeeded as king in 1284.

Fernando's widow, a daughter and sister to the kings of France, went back to France to attempt to gain support for her sons.

Meanwhile, Sancho died in 1295, leaving a likewise underage son (Fernando IV was 10yo). When Fernando IV died in 1312, his son was just over a year (Alfonso XI was born in 1311).

Can the de la Cerda boys (25yo and 20yo respectively in 1295) stage a revolt à la Henry Bolingbroke against the underage king? Who would back them? Could they win? And more importantly, could they hold the crown?
 
Would the death of Sancho IV's wife, Maria de Molina, help any, in this scenario? I'm not sure what role she played (calling @Kurt_Steiner and anyone else knowledgeable about medieval Spanish history) Did she play any role in the fact that both her son and her grandson managed to hang onto their thrones? Or was it merely because France/England were too busy elsewhere in the 1290s (England in Scotland, and I'm not sure if France had any interest in Castile? Aragon, yes, Navarre, perhaps. But Castile?)
 
Weren't there several revolts OTL anyway? Including Ferdinand and Sancho's brother John - I think he claimed the crown of Galicia.
After Sancho dies I think things were kept together by Maria de Molina so removing her might help. Though I suspect we're more likely seeing a division of inheritance not the whole thing.
 
OTL Sancho's eldest daughter was betrothed to Fernando de la Cerda's son, Alfonso - however, there was an age gap at the time of the betrothal (she was still in single digits IIRC), which to my mind indicates that it was unlikely anyone really expected it to be more than a placeholder betrothal (i.e. one done for show until a better option came up).

After Sancho dies I think things were kept together by Maria de Molina so removing her might help. Though I suspect we're more likely seeing a division of inheritance not the whole thing.

That was the plan according to wikipedia. Alfonso X said that Sancho would get Castile and de la Cerda Léon but Sancho usurped the lot. Also, Alfonso III of Aragon backed a rebellion in the 1280s to put de la Cerda on the Castilian throne, but it was to no avail. So, maybe kill Maria de Molina off, and persuade Aragon not to shoot their wad (so to speak) in the 1280s, but rather to wait until the 1290s. (Either that or make the 1280s expedition more successful that Aragon is willing to back de la Cerda when Sancho kicks).

Note: Way too many guys named Alfonso here.
 
I was suspecting that the price of Aragonese help will be Alfonso de la Cerda's OTL son being betrothed to an Aragonese infanta (a marriage between Alfonso and an Aragonese girl seems unlikely, unless he were to successfully claim the crown in the 1280s).

However, I imagine that Philippe le Bel's going to still offer his daughter to the heir to the Spanish throne (regardless of whether he be de la Cerda or as OTL), no? I can't see him wasting the girl on a deposed prince (if Fernando IV is dethroned in favour of his cousin TTL). Which begs the question, if Alfonso de la Cerda can get the throne, who would back Fernando IV to reclaim his throne? Would it be internal (à la Richard III) or external (à la Bolingbroke/Edward IV)?
 
I think I've found a POD, although, considering this is based on wikipedia, it might not be entirely accurate. However, it seems that it is likely to look like a Richard III-Titulus Regius type coup.

Because the marriage between Sancho IV and María de Molina was without validity, all their children (including the now Ferdinand IV) were illegitimate, so the Dowager Queen had to face numerous problems to keep her son on the throne.[3] To the incessant struggles with the Castilian nobility, led by the Infante John of Castile, Lord of Valencia de Campos (who claimed the throne of his brother Sancho IV) and by the Infante Henry of Castile the Senator, son of Ferdinand III and great-uncle of Ferdinand IV (who demanded the guardianship of the king) were joined the claims of the Infantes de la Cerda (Alfonso and Ferdinand, sons of the deceased first-born son of Alfonso X, Ferdinand de la Cerda), who were supported by France and Aragon and by their grandmother Dowager Queen Violante of Aragon, widow of Alfonso X. To this were added the problems with Aragon, Portugal and France, who tried to take advantage of the political instability that suffered the Kingdom of Castile in their own benefit.

Wikipedia also points out that Maria de Molina "At that time, and also for the rest of his [Fernando IV] reign, she tried to placate the nobility, confronted her son's enemies, and repeatedly prevented Ferdinand IV from being dethroned."

Now obviously, if Maria is dead, she can't placate the nobility. Which means that the infantes de la Cerda will have to find a way to present themselves as better candidates (not difficult when you're going up against a 10yo). France, Portugal and Aragon will presumably "leave" Castile alone if the country has a strong leader (rather than a regent). So, de la Cerda could probably use that to their advantage, no?
 
Here's what I'm thinking:

If Maria de Molina is dead, there's a good chance of Alfonso de la Cerda getting the throne. One of Sancho's sons was married to Alfonso's daughter OTL (that's not likely to happen here - or a reverse is likely). Alternatively, Castile was in negotiations with France for two daughters of Philippe le Bel in succession to marry Fernando IV. Negotiations stalled when Sancho died. Would Alfonso (TTL Alfonso XI) try to get the last of Philippe's daughters, Isabelle? Or even just a French bride for his son and heir? And how might this affect Franco-Castilian as well as Anglo-Castilian relations?
 
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