Wendell said:What pray tell does Spain have to gain from French rule over Morocco given that Spain already had firm intetests in the country and the Kaiser cared more about keeping France contained than about controlling the Arab kingdom himself?
But France does recognize the northern part of Morocco as a Spanish zone of influence (even if it is because of British pressure).
It all depends of the POD. I was operating under a given scenario: that there was a war over the Agadir Crisis, and that Spain was on the Entente side. To achieve that, the only way I can think about is Germany misinterpreting Britain's stance as less likely to intervene on France's side, then Germany issuing an ultimatum requiring all foreign troops to leave Morocco. That includes Spain, since she already has troops in the north. So we have Germany vs France & Spain & Britain jumping in either directly or after the Germans invade the low countries as part of the Schlieffen Plan.
Of course, if war comes by any other way, Spain will simply stay out. It's unlikely to go against France - she has half its population, a way smaller and quite outdated army and navy, and she knows it. She can't get supplies from Germany as easy as Austria-Hungary or even the Ottoman Empire did, since it is almost an island with the enemy on the way. Plus, there is just too much French investment in Spanish industry, especially in Catalonia. And you remember what I said about Catalonia in my last message, right?
Now, if Spain were to go to war against France and Britain at the same time... well, then there is not a chance in hell of that happening. Going by what the politicians said then it was too much clearer in Madrid than in Berlin that France and Britain were buddies by this point by the way.
So in essence, the options for Spain are either to stay neutral and hope to get good relations with the victor, whoever it is, or to stood with France and hope to get what she already has plus further concessions as time goes on... maybe the territories in southern Morocco without having to renounce to Fez as in OTL and the like. But going with Germany is not an option for 1911 Spain even if Germany promises the Moon, just like it wasn't for 1917 Mexico.