WI: Afrikakorps reaches the Suez Canal

If you're talking about the British, there's no such thing as "the Royal Army". There are a variety of Royal regiments and Corps, but the army as a whole answers to Parliament, not the Crown.
However, the Queen is Commander-in-Chief of the Army and holds the rank of Field Marshal.

She is C-in-C of the Royal Navy and RAF too holding the rank of Lord High Admiral and Marshal of the RAF. However, like the Army they are really controlled by Parliament.

There isn't a Royal Army because as you wrote its a collection of corps and regiments while the RAF, Royal Navy and Royal Marines are single bodies. As you also wrote many of them have the honorific title Royal (like the Royal Regiment of Artillery and the Corps of Royal Engineers), but some, usually infantry regiments, don't
 
To be serious, are you suggesting that the Italian Army of June 1940 was short of ammunition and that the Regia Aeronautica was short of bombs?

For all its faults the Italian Army did have 75 divisions in June 1940.

You are suggesting they invade at 4 different locations at once and still be able to defend against the French on their mainland, in 1940. They were not prepared for what they did OTL, let alone a twice as bigger campaign. The Italian Army wasn't in a state to cnoquer and occupy large swats of territory.

They would get somewhere at first, untill the British get their head in the game.

There is only so much a German corps can do to help with that if they actually were send to Afrika early on.

Africa is really big and mostly in Allied hands.
 
The political effects on Yugoslavia, Greece, Vichy Syria, Iraq, maybe Turkey etc, are real and would be negative for the British if the Suez fell to the Italians in August 1940.

I just don't see how the Italians are going to push multiple divisions across the desert to Alexandria (wasn't there a road gap from Sidi Barrani to the Libyan frontier that the Italians improved with much effort after they advance in September) with the trucking capacity at their disposal to keep them supplied over that distance.

Even if the Italians started over the Winter of 39/40 preparing a mobile reaction force, pulled out static infantry, etc, (and this didn't provoke a British reaction) and launched this across the Libyan frontier in June or July I can't see an advance of move than 1 single division strength to Alexandria.

If effort, forethought and preparation were possible a serious attempt to take Malta on the date of DOW, or immediately after the French armistice seems the most doable, at least its close. The Italians had a good air droppable torpedo, build those, attach to bombers, (Whitehead-Fiume torpedo), train some paratroopers, build some landing craft, maybe just land on Gozo or some isolated point of the Main Island if Valletta is just too hard (at least its a negotiating point if Mussolini thinks a quick peace is going to happen to have some forces on the islands).
 
You are suggesting they invade at 4 different locations at once and still be able to defend against the French on their mainland, in 1940. They were not prepared for what they did OTL, let alone a twice as bigger campaign. The Italian Army wasn't in a state to cnoquer and occupy large swats of territory.

They would get somewhere at first, untill the British get their head in the game.

There is only so much a German corps can do to help with that if they actually were send to Afrika early on.

Africa is really big and mostly in Allied hands.
I see where you're coming from.

However, Africa while very big wasn't in may allied hands. E.g. The Sudan was held by 3 British and 6 Sudanese infantry battalions supported by 3 squadrons of Vickers Wellesleys. The Italian Armed forces were a wasting asset because Italy didn't have the raw materials needed to replace losses on a large scale and BEC reinforcements were coming. Therefore if the Italians were going to join the war in June 1940 they had to do it properly.
 
Even if the Italians started over the Winter of 39/40 preparing a mobile reaction force, pulled out static infantry, etc, (and this didn't provoke a British reaction) and launched this across the Libyan frontier in June or July I can't see an advance of move than 1 single division strength to Alexandria.
The problem for the British is that although they can clearly see what the Italians are doing over the Winter of 39/40 they won't be able to do anything about it. RAF Middle East was even weaker than it was in the summer of 1940, so was the British Army in the theatre and so was the Mediterranean Fleet. Therefore if the War Cabinet decides to accelerate the plan to create a base for 15 divisions in the Middle East the only place they are going to get any troops from is the British Expeditionary Force. Though knowing what happened to the BEF IOTL sending it to Egypt instead of France is not a bad idea.
 
Last edited:
Could the Afrikakorps have reached the Suez Canal before 1942?

I see two ways this could happen:
Forgot number 3: Rommel proceeds to outrun his supply lines even further than OTL. Cue mass breakdowns of tanks, halftracks and truck with resulting starvation, deaths by dehydration and collapse of discipline. Entirety of Afrikakorp arrives at the Suez Canal as POWs...
:openedeyewink:
 
You are suggesting they invade at 4 different locations at once and still be able to defend against the French on their mainland, in 1940. They were not prepared for what they did OTL, let alone a twice as bigger campaign. The Italian Army wasn't in a state to conquer and occupy large swats of territory.
I was going to have attack at 5 different locations, but because the OTL attempt to invade Metropolitan France was a disaster I thought it would be a good idea to remain on the defensive on that front.

AFAIK a major reason why the Italians weren't prepared was that they didn't do much preparation between September 1939 and June 1940. AFIAK it was a spur of the moment decision by Mussolini. If it had been a pre-planned decision they could at least have recalled all Italy's merchant shipping before declaring war.

So what we need to do is look at the resources the Italians had and see if they could have done more with them between September 1939 and June 1940.
 
I was going to have attack at 5 different locations, but because the OTL attempt to invade Metropolitan France was a disaster I thought it would be a good idea to remain on the defensive on that front.

AFAIK a major reason why the Italians weren't prepared was that they didn't do much preparation between September 1939 and June 1940. AFIAK it was a spur of the moment decision by Mussolini. If it had been a pre-planned decision they could at least have recalled all Italy's merchant shipping before declaring war.

So what we need to do is look at the resources the Italians had and see if they could have done more with them between September 1939 and June 1940.

But Mussolini was not expecting a long war where they would have to conquer everything. He had planned that the British would make peace. When that didn't happen it all basically went to hell for the Italian strategy.
 
I didn't know that she only became Lord High Admiral in 1964 either. I had assumed that she became LHA when she became Queen.
LHA wasnt a thing when the Queen became Queen. The titular head of the Navy was first lord of the admiralty. When the admiralty board was abolished the Navy wanted a titular head so the Queen took the role on.

Even though the Queen is no longer LHA she remains CinC of all British Armed Forces.

As to the on topic story one must consider that Italian forces in East Africa were very much in a use it or lose it situations. Low on suplies for the whole war and rationing supplies constantly. Could they have manamed a hard operational tempo for a shorter period. Distracted British forces elsewhere and enabled them to make a breakthrough.
 

Deleted member 1487

But Mussolini was not expecting a long war where they would have to conquer everything. He had planned that the British would make peace. When that didn't happen it all basically went to hell for the Italian strategy.
Pretty much. Italian actions in WW2 make a ton more sense when you realize that Mussolini was operating on the assumption that by engaging in a bunch of places all at once AND not taking Malta was based on the assumption that just by having troops in places and Malta being in his backyard that he'd get it all in the peace deal (or at least something in return for removing his troops) that was bound to happen in 1940. When that didn't work out he was left horribly overextended and ultimately vulnerable to counteroffensives, which pretty much collapsed him everywhere but in France and Yugoslavia.
 
But Mussolini was not expecting a long war where they would have to conquer everything. He had planned that the British would make peace. When that didn't happen it all basically went to hell for the Italian strategy.
Agreed.

That's why I'm making the POD September 1939. Mussolini to decides to declare war on Britain and France when Hitler launches his attack on France and makes what preparations that he can for it.
 
Last edited:
As to the on topic story one must consider that Italian forces in East Africa were very much in a use it or lose it situations. Low on supplies for the whole war and rationing supplies constantly. Could they have manamed a hard operational tempo for a shorter period. Distracted British forces elsewhere and enabled them to make a breakthrough.
That's why I thought they should have gone for The Sudan and Aden straight away.

However, I only put Aden in to see if people were paying attention. It would be a good place to capture, if it could be done, but I thought the Italian forces in East Africa wouldn't have the troops to take Aden and The Sudan. Plus they probably didn't have the shipping to carry the troops anyway. However, the naval escort was there because the Italian naval forces in East Africa included 8 submarines, 7 destroyers and 2 small destroyers that the Italians classed as torpedo boats.

The Sudan on the other hand. In spite of the vast distances I think the Italian forces in East Africa were capable of pushing out the 9 infantry battalions and 3 Wellesley squadrons there in June 1940. Once they had that would deprive the British of the use of The Sudan as a base to attack East Africa. It could be used as a staging post to fly in reinforcements from Libya, although the Italians might not have much to send. It also cuts the British air reinforcement route to Egypt from West Africa.
 
But Mussolini was not expecting a long war where they would have to conquer everything. He had planned that the British would make peace. When that didn't happen it all basically went to hell for the Italian strategy.
I think he wasn't expecting war at all.

If he was I doubt that he would have sold 4 destroyers to Sweden in March 1940. Although they sailed on 18th April their passage was delayed en route and by the time they had reached the Faeroes, Italy was at war with Great Britain. The British seized them and didn't release them until 1st July. The source I got that from isn't clear if the British seized all 4 ships or just the 2 Sella class boats.

The Italians also sold 82 Ca 313, 72 C.R.42 and 60 Re 2000 aircraft to Sweden as part of the deal.
 
If effort, forethought and preparation were possible a serious attempt to take Malta on the date of DOW, or immediately after the French armistice seems the most doable, at least its close. The Italians had a good air droppable torpedo, build those, attach to bombers, (Whitehead-Fiume torpedo), train some paratroopers, build some landing craft, maybe just land on Gozo or some isolated point of the Main Island if Valletta is just too hard (at least its a negotiating point if Mussolini thinks a quick peace is going to happen to have some forces on the islands).
Is it correct that that Regia Aeronautica had possessed a good air droppable torpedo (which they sold to the Germans) for several years and a good torpedo bomber in the S.M.79, but they didn't form any torpedo bomber squadrons until after war was declared?

AFAIK the Italians had about 600 S.M.79s in service in June 1940. Therefore with a POD of September 1939 could they have organised an effective force of 90-150 torpedo bombers by June 1940? The outcome of the Battle of Calabria might have been somewhat different had the British Mediterranean Fleet been attacked by torpedo bombers instead of high level bombers.
 
From the Regia Marina Italiana website...
As of June 1940, the Italian merchant fleet comprised 786 ships with a gross tonnage exceeding 500 tons, for a total of 3,318,129 tons, and about 200 ships between 100 and 500 tons. As many as 212 ships, amounting to 1,216,637 tons, were stranded out of the Mediterranean when Italy declared war, and almost all of them were consequently captured or sunk by the enemy.

Between 10 June 1940 and 8 September 1943, the fleet gained 204 ships - newly constructed or captured - amounting to 818,619 tons; but 460 ships, amounting to 1,700,096 tons, were lost.

Left: number of ships over 500 t.
Right: total tons
As of 8 September, 324 ships for 1,247,092 tons were still serving; after the armistice, they were mostly captured by the Germans (and then sunk) or self-destroyed to avoid capture.
Presumably the Italian Government, expecting a short war, thought it would get the 212 ships, amounting to 1,216,637 tons, that were stranded out of the Mediterranean IOTL in June 1940 back as soon as the British Government realised it was in a hopeless position and asked for an armistice with the Axis. But Churchill didn't and the British Empire and its Commonwealth fought on.

If declaring war in June 1940 had been part of a longer term plan then the merchant shipping would have been recalled first. That would have effectively increased Italy's sea transport capability by 50% in the second half of 1940. That might have made reinforcing Libya more heavily than OTL a viable alternative to invading Greece.
 

Deleted member 1487

From the Regia Marina Italiana website...Presumably the Italian Government, expecting a short war, thought it would get the 212 ships, amounting to 1,216,637 tons, that were stranded out of the Mediterranean IOTL in June 1940 back as soon as the British Government realised it was in a hopeless position and asked for an armistice with the Axis. But Churchill didn't and the British Empire and its Commonwealth fought on.

If declaring war in June 1940 had been part of a longer term plan then the merchant shipping would have been recalled first. That would have effectively increased Italy's sea transport capability by 50% in the second half of 1940. That might have made reinforcing Libya more heavily than OTL a viable alternative to invading Greece.
And signaled their intent to go to war.
 
Agreed.

That's why I'm making the POD September 1939. Mussolini to decides to declare war on Britain and France when Hitler launches his attack on France and makes what preparations that he can for it.

But the timing for that would be horrible. If the plan is incrase resources in Africa in September 1939 then that would mean they have to had placed divisions capable of a military campaign in Libya and East Africa, alerting the British and French of their intent. The Allies are no fools. A problem with that though, a project like that is going to take a long time and cost a lot of resources to perform, resources Italy was scarce of because the trains didn't run on time as truth had it. Only way, to take it from other positions like the French and Yugoslavian borders. bad idea. The French are going to build up at the Italian borders and secure Tunisia. The Italian need more and more resources every day.

For example the invasion of Albania was without much effort, but mostly because there was no resistance and a simple underequipped army took it. The only thing it really did though was add another theater for the Italian army to cover, more shipping required and stretching of forces and precious equipment. Imagine that an increase of men amd material for Africa would add to that resource strain a hundred fold.


I think he wasn't expecting war at all.

If he was I doubt that he would have sold 4 destroyers to Sweden in March 1940. Although they sailed on 18th April their passage was delayed en route and by the time they had reached the Faeroes, Italy was at war with Great Britain. The British seized them and didn't release them until 1st July. The source I got that from isn't clear if the British seized all 4 ships or just the 2 Sella class boats.

The Italians also sold 82 Ca 313, 72 C.R.42 and 60 Re 2000 aircraft to Sweden as part of the deal.

He couldn't afford expecting a real war, i think thats the point we all need to focus on. Its not that he was too arrogant to think that there won't be any need of it, it was just that his country simply wasn't capable of fighting the British on equal terms. It was either a surprise attack and quick peace, or spaghetti bombs.
 
Top