WI: Afonso, Prince of Portugal Leaves a Posthumous Child

As it says on the box - Afonso, Prince of Portugal, only legitimate son of Joao II of Portugal, leaves a wife to discover that she is in the family way shortly before/after his demise. A healthy son is born 9 months later. What happens next?
 
As it says on the box - Afonso, Prince of Portugal, only legitimate son of Joao II of Portugal, leaves a wife to discover that she is in the family way shortly before/after his demise. A healthy son is born 9 months later. What happens next?

One assumes that as OTL, Afonso dies in 1491, and that the widow is Isabella of Aragon. Her son will be heir to Portugal, and to Castile and Aragon if her brother dies childless as OTL. In OTL, Isabella was so distressed by Afonso's death that she spent the rest of her life fasting and scourging herself. This contributed to her death in childbirth in 1498.

If she avoids this immediate fate, having a child may cheer her up. In any case, Afonso's uncle doesn't succeed in Portugal. Instead Afonso's son succeeds to all three kingdoms.

This knocks out the inheritance of the Spanish empire by Charles, son of Isabella's sister Juana la Loca, OTL's Charles V of Habsburg. Aragon held Sicily and Naples in this period.

What else? With the union of Spain and Portugal in train, Spain may not feel any need to compete with Portugal's maritime explorations and discoveries. So Columbus doesn't get funded, and the discovery of the New World is put off by many years. Portuguese mariners will find Brazil soon, and poke around South America, but it will be many years before they reach Central America. French and English mariners may explore North America.

The conquistadors may instead devote their ferocious energies to ventures in Africa and the Indies. There will be no flood of Mexican and Peruvian bullion into Spain's coffers.
 
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One assumes that as OTL, Afonso dies in 1491, and that the widow is Isabella of Aragon. Her son will be heir to Portugal, and to Spain if her brother dies childless as OTL. In OTL, Isabella was so distressed by Afonso's death that she spent the rest of her life fasting and scourging herself. This contributed to her death in childbirth in 1498.

So, in a way, much like her sister in England? (I've read that Catherine's fasting and religious observances were part of the contributing factor to her being unable to carry a healthy child to term)

What of Manuel? Does Joao II - knowing that he has an heir, order Manuel to join the rest of his family? And how much of a role does Isabel play in her son's life sans a father? Or does she still get sent back to Spain as OTL? Who's on the regency if Joao II dies on schedule?
 
One assumes that as OTL, Afonso dies in 1491, and that the widow is Isabella of Aragon. Her son will be heir to Portugal, and to Spain if her brother dies childless as OTL. In OTL, Isabella was so distressed by Afonso's death that she spent the rest of her life fasting and scourging herself. This contributed to her death in childbirth in 1498.

If she avoids this immediate fate, having a child may cheer her up. In any case, Afonso's uncle doesn't succeed in Portugal. Instead Afonso's son succeeds to all three kingdoms.

This knocks out the inheritance of the Spanish empire by Charles, son of Isabella's sister Juana la Loca, OTL's Charles V of Habsburg. Aragon held Sicily and Naples in this period.

What else? With the union of Spain and Portugal in train, Spain may not feel any need to compete with Portugal's maritime explorations and discoveries. So Columbus doesn't get funded, and the discovery of the New World is put off by many years. Portuguese mariners will find Brazil soon, and poke around South America, but it will be many years before they reach Central America. French and English mariners may explore North America.

The conquistadors may instead devote their ferocious energies to ventures in Africa and the Indies. There will be no flood of Mexican and Peruvian bullion into Spain's coffers.

And instead we get the Indonesia being the focus of the Spanish...so good bye Hindu Bali and Java..
 
The Infante Miguel would be an interesting candidate for the hand in marriage of his aunt the Infanta Catalina (Catherine of Aragon) after she was widowed in 1501, which might serve to soothe Ferdinand's financial woes (he could demand her dowry back from the Tudors, for starters) and strengthen Miguel's succession rights in Aragón and Castille.

He would simultaneously be a good match for Princess Mary Tudor (five years his junior), especially if relations remained sour between Henry VII and Ferdinand, and Henry decided to circumvent Ferdinand by matching his available daughter to Ferdinand's eventual heir.
 
If Alfonso, Prince of Portugal, had died leaving his pregnant wife, Isabel de Aragon and Castile (eldest daughter of the Catholic Monarchs), he or she would have meant a total Iberian unity.

John II of Portugal certainly had ordered the stay in Portugal for his daughter in law and his grandchild and heir -preventing both were victims of bad medical practices by different doctors of the Court of Castile (usually supplied bleedings to pregnants, among other treatments that would justify the tremendous mortality of the spouses of Philip II and their children, unlike what happened to his Austrian cousins)-, due to the fact that his grandchild was his direct heir, while then Prince Juan (died at 1497) was the direct heir of Castile and Aragon.

Therefore, it does not prevent the Columbus' projects funded by Castile (delayed only to achieve the Christian conquest of Granada), because it was assumed that both Iberian crowns would not fall on the same person.

And as for who would be his future wife (if it was male), this marriage would fall safely in the small daughter of Henry VII of England, Mary Tudor, in view of ensuring the engagement between Infanta Catalina and the new Prince of Wales after the death of Prince Arthur, the future Henry VIII (one of the possible reasons for the marriage of Henry VIII and Catherine of Aragon had no sons could be due to delayed marriage, sponsored by Henry VII, at a time when the various princes and princesses are usually married at the age average of 15 years).

And if it was a woman, her future husband might be her uncle Manuel, Duke of Beja (OTL Manuel I of Portugal); or her cousin Ferdinand, Duke of Calabria (son of Frederick IV of Naples), who was the only prince possible to restore the Trastamara dynasty on the throne after the deaths of Prince John and Ferdinand II of Aragon.
 
The Infante Miguel would be an interesting candidate for the hand in marriage of his aunt the Infanta Catalina (Catherine of Aragon) after she was widowed in 1501, which might serve to soothe Ferdinand's financial woes (he could demand her dowry back from the Tudors, for starters) and strengthen Miguel's succession rights in Aragón and Castille.

Except that in 1501, with a birth year of 1491, he's all of ten years old. Plus, for some reason the church is pretty iffy about granting dispensations for aunts to marry their nephews - it didn't happen too often, and of the aunt-nephew marriages I can think of offhand, none resulted in children.

He would simultaneously be a good match for Princess Mary Tudor (five years his junior), especially if relations remained sour between Henry VII and Ferdinand, and Henry decided to circumvent Ferdinand by matching his available daughter to Ferdinand's eventual heir.

Now with Mary we're cooking with gas, cause even if Juan of Castile leaves a likewise posthumous child by Margaret of Austria, Miguel is still a good choice, as his heirship is not solely dependent on Juan dying without kids. Plus, if Juan does die as OTL with no children, Fernando might go about his OTL shenanigans with a second wife. (Or not).
 
The most fun scenario will be the one in which Alfonso die and had posthumous son and Juan some years later die as OTL and his posthumous daughter also survive... How much time will be spent trying to secure a match between Miguel and Juana Isabel?
 
The most fun scenario will be the one in which Alfonso die and had posthumous son and Juan some years later die as OTL and his posthumous daughter also survive... How much time will be spent trying to secure a match between Miguel and Juana Isabel?

I must admit, I like the sounds of that idea. But wouldn't Fernando try his OTL shenanigans to try and leave a male heir? Or would he be fine with seeing Aragon/ese Empire absorbed into Portugal-Castile?
 
I must admit, I like the sounds of that idea. But wouldn't Fernando try his OTL shenanigans to try and leave a male heir? Or would he be fine with seeing Aragon/ese Empire absorbed into Portugal-Castile?

The fun thing is who he cannot try... A son from a second wife will not have an hhigher claim than the heiress of his firstborn.... And OTL Ferdinand likely remarried only because he and Philip hated each other and poor Juana pay the price of that... With a daughter of Juan and a son of Isabel (and maybe Isabella herself) before Juana he will not have any chance to clash with Philip of Burgundy so he will have not any reason to remarry and destroy everything the fought to do with Isabella
 
I'm confused, I was under the impression had a salic-law thing going on? For instance, while she succeeded as Queen of Naples and Sicily (not sure about Sardinia), Juana never succeeded as queen of Aragon proper, that title is listed as being held by Karl V from Fernando's death, in which case, wouldn't a son of Fernando, even if born of a second marriage, be likely to end up AHEAD of Juana Isabella in the Aragonese succession?
 
I'm confused, I was under the impression had a salic-law thing going on? For instance, while she succeeded as Queen of Naples and Sicily (not sure about Sardinia), Juana never succeeded as queen of Aragon proper, that title is listed as being held by Karl V from Fernando's death, in which case, wouldn't a son of Fernando, even if born of a second marriage, be likely to end up AHEAD of Juana Isabella in the Aragonese succession?

A son of Fernando from a second marriage would indeed be ahead of Juana. That's why he married Germaine of Foix IOTL: to save at least Aragon from falling to Philip of Burgundy.
 
Isabella of Aragon (b.1470) m. Alfonso, Prince of Portugal (b.1475) (a), Manuel, Duke of Beja (b.1469) (b)

1a) John III of Portugal (b.1492) m. Juana I of Castile and Aragon (b.1498: d.1517) (a), Bona Sforza (b.1494) (a)

1a) Stillborn Boy (c.1512)

2a) Maria of Portugal (b.1513: d.1515)

3a) Juana II of Castile and Aragon (b.1514)

4a) Stillborn Girl (c.1515)

5a) Stillborn Girl (c.1517)

6b) John, Prince of Portugal (b.1518)

7b) Ferdinand of Portugal, Duke of Milan (b.1520)

8b) Isabella of Portugal (b.1521)

9b) Stillborn Boy (c.1523)

10b) Miscarriage (c.1524)

11b) Luisa of Portugal (b.1525)

12b) Beatrice of Portugal (b.1527)​

2b) Miguel of Beja (b.1498)

3b) Maria of Beja (b.1500: d.1501)

4b) Stillborn Girl (c.1502)

5a) Alfonso of Beja (b.1504)

6a) Isabella of Beja (b.1506)​
 
I'm confused, I was under the impression had a salic-law thing going on? For instance, while she succeeded as Queen of Naples and Sicily (not sure about Sardinia), Juana never succeeded as queen of Aragon proper, that title is listed as being held by Karl V from Fernando's death, in which case, wouldn't a son of Fernando, even if born of a second marriage, be likely to end up AHEAD of Juana Isabella in the Aragonese succession?

That was not exactly a full Salic Law and I think who if he was willing to press the matter with the Courtes of Aragon, Ferdinand will be able to confirm a female as direct heiress. After Juan death both Castile and Aragon confirmed Isabella, Juana's eldest sister and her second husband (King Manuel of Portugal) as heirs. Sure Aragon was not exactly happy to have a female ruler but I do not think who with a different heiress than his daughter Juana (or better with an heiress married to someone different than Philip of Burgundy) Ferdinand will take the decision to try to destroy everything the fought to build with Isabella so I not think who Ferdinand will remarry.

In any case I think who Juana Isabella (an ATL daughter of Juan of Castile and Aragorn and Margaret of Austria) will still became Queen over an half-brother of her father but surely a son from a second wife for Ferdinand is something who will make the succession of Aragon messy...
 
Definitely. But messy is sometimes fun - particularly when it comes to history.:D

But barring the existence of Juana-Isabella, who might this alt-Miguel marry? And how might Portugal's future develop for, say, the next 50-100 years?
 
If he had not an heiress of Spain to amrry (aka if he is already the King of Spain) he will surely marry either an Austrian Cousin (Eleanor of Austria) or Mary of England (Henry VII and Elizabeth's daughter) or possible but unlikely a French princess or an eventual heiress of Navarre...
 
Out of curiosity, wasn't Joao more "independently" minded than Manuel? I mean, Manuel and his kids/grandkids basically bent over backwards for the Trastamara and then the Habsburgs, while both Fernando and Isabel regarded Joao with suspicion. So, might he not be more likely to ally with France/Navarre/an anti-Spanish England than Manuel/'s kids?

Plus, might Joao live longer than OTL? And who might be regent for the infant *Miguel? Manuel? Princess Isabella? Queen-Dowager Leonor? (I'm not sure how Joao died OTL - i.e. is it butterfly proof or not)
 
Out of curiosity, wasn't Joao more "independently" minded than Manuel? I mean, Manuel and his kids/grandkids basically bent over backwards for the Trastamara and then the Habsburgs, while both Fernando and Isabel regarded Joao with suspicion. So, might he not be more likely to ally with France/Navarre/an anti-Spanish England than Manuel/'s kids?

Plus, might Joao live longer than OTL? And who might be regent for the infant *Miguel? Manuel? Princess Isabella? Queen-Dowager Leonor? (I'm not sure how Joao died OTL - i.e. is it butterfly proof or not)

Ferdinand and Isabella will make certain who Joao II will not have any chance to rule their kingdoms but I really do not see a reason for which Joao will have to throw away half of his grandson inheritance antagonizing Ferdinand and Isabella. As regent for young John II in Portugal likely either Leonor or Manuel... Isabella will became Queen Regnant of Castile after her mother's death and either Queen regnant or regent of Aragon after her father's death (if Ferdinand die while *John III still need a regent)
 
Ferdinand and Isabella will make certain who Joao II will not have any chance to rule their kingdoms but I really do not see a reason for which Joao will have to throw away half of his grandson inheritance antagonizing Ferdinand and Isabella. As regent for young John II in Portugal likely either Leonor or Manuel... Isabella will became Queen Regnant of Castile after her mother's death and either Queen regnant or regent of Aragon after her father's death (if Ferdinand die while *John III still need a regent)

Wouldn't Ferdinand do what he did OTL where he appointed his bastard son as regent for Aragon? Or would he have a slightly better relationship with Isabel than with Juana?

@Kellan: Also, I can't seem to find what Joao died of, but he died at the relatively young age of 40 (his father was 49 and his illegitimate son Jorge reached 69), so I wonder if it wasn't "grief" or "melancholy" at seeing his only legitimate son die, and knowing that he couldn't have Jorge legitimated to succeed him that broke him? Also, what role might Jorge play after Joao's death? OTL IRC Manuel stripped him of many of the titles and wealth that Joao had bestowed upon him, but here, Manuel isn't king (and maybe Isabel trusts Jorge more than Manuel/Leonor with her son, since Jorge has nothing to gain by murdering little Joao/Juan III, whereas Manuel does, not saying she likes him, but its possible (to my mind, at least)) so he can't do anything about it.
 
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Isabel was likely Ferdinand and Isabella's favourite child and while Juana had a rocky relationship with her parents the thing who the Catholics Monarchs really feared was the destiny of their kingdoms in the hands of Philip (and Philip gave them many reason for fearing that). Alfonso and Manuel were a different story and likely theyt had not reason to fear who Isabel will be left powerless in her own kingdoms by her husband...

I think Manuel like OTL will wait a suitable time after Alfonso's death then start to try to persuade Isabel to marry him so he will likely do his best for keep safe little Joao and Leonor what reason have to harm her own grandson?

And I think who Manuel, after Joao tried to make Jorge his heir instead of him, was quite justified in his vengeange against Jorge and do not forget who in any case Joao was both married to Manuel's sister and had murdered many of his closest relative, both of them very good reasons for a revenge against Joao's bastard son... And Jorge was likely too much powerful for any king and if his rival King was Joao II and not Manuel likely Jorge will have ended dead...
 
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