WI Afghan and Persian Monarchies intermarry – Afghan King Zahir Shah marries a Pahlavi in the 1930s

PakistaniGuyUK

PakistaniGuyUK

Banned
What if something like this had come about?

A senior-ish Pahlavi (Persian) royal princess who could obviously not become Shah of Iran (being female) nor his wife setting her eyes on becoming Queen Consort of the Afghan king instead? Could be a love marriage or political, doesn’t matter, but let’s assume the marriage lasts for life.

In OTL Zahir Shah became King of Afghanistan and married an Afghan royal in 1939.

ATL he marries someone like Hamdamsaltaneh Pahlavi (half sister of the Shah of Iran). Lets assume a date of 1939 when King Zahir Shah was 25 and she was 36. Alternatively replace another Pahlavi a bit younger in her 20s (there wasn’t any shortage of Persian royals). Really doesn’t matter who. She can convert to Sunnism or could even remain Shia but her children (the future King, other princes or princesses) will of course have to be brought up as Sunnis.

Thus the relationship between Afghanistan and Iran is cemented in a way unique to ATL.

How would this change the dynamic of the region?

What OTL events may get butterflied away?
 
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galileo-034

galileo-034

I wouldn't mind the religion difference as I don't have hindsight enough on this question, but I would question the relevance of a Pahlavi princess. The thing is the Pahlavi dynasty was of very recent elevation, usurping the throne from the Qajars.

It's like with the Bonaparte family, considered to be upstarts from the beginning by most of the European 'old dynasties'; the mariages that happened between Bonaparte family members and European high nobility and royalty had more to do with the political and military supremacy of Napoléon, and decades later, you would find Napoléon III struggling to find a match among the royals of Europe, having to settle on a minor Spanish noblewoman.
Now, I don't much about the dynamics of Afghanistan, but its ruling dynasty dated back from the early 19th century, so it might look odd to ally with an upstart/usurper dynasty; by the way, a quick check on wiki says the marriage took place in 1931, well before Zahir Shah became king. And I understand tribal politics played a huge hand in the dynamic of power in that era, hence my assumption the issue of marital alliance was a key stake in the power balance of Afghanistan; a Pahlavi, again from a recent dynasty founded by usurpation, a foreign and shia bride would be a most incoherent choice. And you get to remember this happened not long after the 1928-1929 civil war started over Amanulah Khan modernization drive and opposition of Saqqawists.
 
PakistaniGuyUK

PakistaniGuyUK

Banned
Quintuplicate said:
Wasn't the Afghan royal family very endogamous?
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Yes it was. But seriously I don't think the Barakzai clan (Afghan Royal Family) would have excommunicated Zahir Shah if a 'love marriage' like this would have occurred. The only stumbling block may have been faith, but mixed Shia/Sunni marriages aren't unheard of and the elites of these countries live more lenient lives anyway. The only 'traditional' thing would've been the children being raised as Barakzai Sunnis as per custom.
 

boredviewer1234

PakistaniGuyUK said:
What if something like this had come about?
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Well as long as the marriage does not end in tragedy, well the PODs are nigh endless, for example I can't see the USSR take this very well seeing Afghanistan slip away with the recent Basmachi antics so might start start exploring looking to change the situation, Afghanistan might get unlucky and be invaded like Iran in WW2, in which, well if event similar to OTL happen the USSR tries to bargain their conquest in keeping their part of Iran, well I can see the USSR at least keep bits of Afghanistan they own, and in which case maybe the allies do also a bit of it while focused on making Iran keep it's land.

Though if that's avoided then I can't imagine the wife be happy to see her homeland occupied and divided by the Allies for a while, though again if she is patriotic she would try to promote their interests which would go against the USSR.

Could mean a Afghanistan in the first weaker, hates the USSR but likely focusing on a Pakistan that might have gotten some of their land from the allies adding bits to the RAJ to avoid the USSR being the only one to grow. Can't imagine a happy ending for the Princess, maybe she dies horribly in this timeline and both Iran and Afghanistan are united by their grief and ties grow from it?

Other would a more neutral Afghanistan, potentially joining the non aligned movement if still leaning towards the Soviet Union and close ties to Iran, which means a lot less hostility towards Pakistan which could change a lot of events in history.

That and more tolerance for Shia I guess, then again it's nobility, can't see the Hazera gain from it, tbh they still are pretty abused even if their Sunni.

TBH man this timeline sounds great for a alternate history novel.
 
PakistaniGuyUK

PakistaniGuyUK

Banned
boredviewer1234 said:
Well as long as the marriage does not end in tragedy, well the PODs are nigh endless, for example I can't see the USSR take this very well seeing Afghanistan slip away with the recent Basmachi antics so might start start exploring looking to change the situation, Afghanistan might get unlucky and be invaded like Iran in WW2, in which, well if event similar to OTL happen the USSR tries to bargain their conquest in keeping their part of Iran, well I can see the USSR at least keep bits of Afghanistan they own, and in which case maybe the allies do also a bit of it while focused on making Iran keep it's land.

Though if that's avoided then I can't imagine the wife be happy to see her homeland occupied and divided by the Allies for a while, though again if she is patriotic she would try to promote their interests which would go against the USSR.

Could mean a Afghanistan in the first weaker, hates the USSR but likely focusing on a Pakistan that might have gotten some of their land from the allies adding bits to the RAJ to avoid the USSR being the only one to grow. Can't imagine a happy ending for the Princess, maybe she dies horribly in this timeline and both Iran and Afghanistan are united by their grief and ties grow from it?

Other would a more neutral Afghanistan, potentially joining the non aligned movement if still leaning towards the Soviet Union and close ties to Iran, which means a lot less hostility towards Pakistan which could change a lot of events in history.

That and more tolerance for Shia I guess, then again it's nobility, can't see the Hazera gain from it, tbh they still are pretty abused even if their Sunni.

TBH man this timeline sounds great for a alternate history novel.
Click to expand...

Ha, interesting! I'd never even thought of the WWII aspect 👍👍
 
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PakistaniGuyUK

PakistaniGuyUK

Banned
boredviewer1234 said:
Other would a more neutral Afghanistan, potentially joining the non aligned movement if still leaning towards the Soviet Union and close ties to Iran, which means a lot less hostility towards Pakistan which could change a lot of events in history.

That and more tolerance for Shia I guess, then again it's nobility, can't see the Hazera gain from it, tbh they still are pretty abused even if their Sunni.

TBH man this timeline sounds great for a alternate history novel.
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Ha this is what I find the most interesting! What if this marriage survives WWII and things settle down!

I agree with the greater tolerance for the Shia. In general I think Afghanistan may be energized in a way that is absent in OTL. Well, as long as the nation (and marriage) manages to reach the 1950s relatively unscathed!
 

boredviewer1234

PakistaniGuyUK said:
Ha this is what I find the most interesting! What if this marriage survives WWII and things settle down!

I agree with the greater tolerance for the Shia. In general I think Afghanistan may be energized in a way that is absent in OTL. Well, as long as the nation (and marriage) manages to reach the 1950s relatively unscathed!
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I admit I'm not the best crafting well detailed timelines but here are some consequences I can see occur.

Afghanistan due to it's position get's a boom during détente acting as a trade station between the USSR and the Iran, not the greatest extent with it depending on the whims of the cold war but could really benefit northern Afghanistan in terms of trade and jobs. Likewise it took a while for the USSR to actually fully side with India till the 70s, so prior to that given WW2 happened and the food shortages following it I definitely would see them try to import a lot of food from Pakistan once the option becomes available and

Now you would I think see closer military ties with Iran though it would vary depending on if the Afghan royal family keeps wanting to strengthen it. The Afghan and Iranian air forces both partially share their origin from British donations and I could see both nations want to train and try to work together given their relatively close starting points of both being under threat/temptation of the USSR.

Internally and this might sound weird depending on how much the queen wishes to maintain her culture a bit of renaissance in Persian poetry and expression inside the nation, which given roughly 30% of the population is Tajik and most of the country speaks Persian Dari will at least make it harder to try and enforce Pashto and Pashtunization efforts onto the other elements of the country, though with far less hostility towards Pakistan I think their would less attempts at it.



Pakistan, well I'm unsure how it will change but without any pressing threat from that side I suspect Kashmir will see a lot more soldiers sent in 1947 and with the West far more secure, more efforts to deal with the eastern wing will be made.


Edit Shia will be better off and likely Iran makes efforts to try and protect them plus to give the Shah some points with the clergy.
 
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PakistaniGuyUK

PakistaniGuyUK

Banned
boredviewer1234 said:
I admit I'm not the best crafting well detailed timelines but here are some consequences I can see occur.

Afghanistan due to it's position get's a boom during détente acting as a trade station between the USSR and the Iran, not the greatest extent with it depending on the whims of the cold war but could really benefit northern Afghanistan in terms of trade and jobs. Likewise it took a while for the USSR to actually fully side with India till the 70s, so prior to that given WW2 happened and the food shortages following it I definitely would see them try to import a lot of food from Pakistan once the option becomes available and

Now you would I think see closer military ties with Iran though it would vary depending on if the Afghan royal family keeps wanting to strengthen it. The Afghan and Iranian air forces both partially share their origin from British donations and I could see both nations want to train and try to work together given their relatively close starting points of both being under threat/temptation of the USSR.

Internally and this might sound weird depending on how much the queen wishes to maintain her culture a bit of renaissance in Persian poetry and expression inside the nation, which given roughly 30% of the population is Tajik and most of the country speaks Persian Dari will at least make it harder to try and enforce Pashto and Pashtunization efforts onto the other elements of the country, though with far less hostility towards Pakistan I think their would less attempts at it.



Pakistan, well I'm unsure how it will change but without any pressing threat from that side I suspect Kashmir will see a lot more soldiers sent in 1947 and with the West far more secure, more efforts to deal with the eastern wing will be made.


Edit Shia will be better off and likely Iran makes efforts to try and protect them plus to give the Shah some points with the clergy.
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Great analysis there. Bravo!

Agree with all you've said. This is more or less the timeline I had in mind when I posted the WI, in the sense that I hadn't considered things could go pear-shaped (i.e. WWII as you raised).

By the 1950s the Persian influence could stabilize Afghanistan much more than OTL. Secondly if the Shah manages to get some brownie points with the clergy through helping Afghan Shia's (*point you raised) then its possible Mossadeq's influence within Iran may diminish or get butterflied away entirely. This is why I find it so bloody fascinating hahaha!
 
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Quintuplicate

PakistaniGuyUK said:
Great analysis there. Bravo!

Agree with all you've said. This is more or less the timeline I had in mind when I posted the WI, in the sense that I hadn't considered things could go pear-shaped (i.e. WWII as you raised).

By the 1950s the Persian influence could stabilize Afghanistan much more than OTL. Secondly if the Shah manages to get some brownie points with the clergy through helping Afghan Shia's (*point you raised) then its possible Mossadeq's influence within Iran may diminish or get butterflied away entirely. This is why I find it so bloody fascinating hahaha!
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Would the Revolution of 1973 be butterflied away?
 

A Piece of History

Quintuplicate said:
Would the Revolution of 1973 be butterflied away?
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The Revolution was caused by internal turmoil within the Afghan government, mostly having to do with the King having a dispute with his cousin, Daoud Khan, but it also had to do with the perceived failures of the monarchy to adopt political reform and respond to natural disasters. I doubt a political marriage is going to make these issues go away. Married or not, Zahir Shah is going to be a less than desirable monarch and Daoud Khan is still going to use the public discontent to push his pan-Pashtun ideology.
 

Quintuplicate

Nathan Bernacki said:
The Revolution was caused by internal turmoil within the Afghan government, mostly having to do with the King having a dispute with his cousin, Daoud Khan, but it also had to do with the perceived failures of the monarchy to adopt political reform and respond to natural disasters. I doubt a political marriage is going to make these issues go away. Married or not, Zahir Shah is going to be a less than desirable monarch and Daoud Khan is still going to use the public discontent to push his pan-Pashtun ideology.
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Would there be a backlash against the queen in an Afghan Republic?
 

A Piece of History

Quintuplicate said:
Would there be a backlash against the queen in an Afghan Republic?
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Under Daoud Khan's brand of socialism, probably not. In OTL, there was no major purge of the royal family or it's supporters after the Revolution, so I doubt Khan would pay the queen any mind.

After the Soviets eventually kill him off and install their puppet, I could see the marriage being depicted as evidence of the Afghan royal family selling out their country to the West, but of course, keep in mind that by the '80s, I doubt many Afghans cared about the royal family anymore.
 

Quintuplicate

Nathan Bernacki said:
Under Daoud Khan's brand of socialism, probably not. In OTL, there was no major purge of the royal family or it's supporters after the Revolution, so I doubt Khan would pay the queen any mind.

After the Soviets eventually kill him off and install their puppet, I could see the marriage being depicted as evidence of the Afghan royal family selling out their country to the West, but of course, keep in mind that by the '80s, I doubt many Afghans cared about the royal family anymore.
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So you think history would have gone on as normal?
 
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