WI: Admiral Yi dies before or during Japan's invasion?

Thanks for the gloriously detailed reply.

So apart from the raw new info I didn't know of, what I am getting here is that for Spain to even be able to try to do such an invasion successfully they'll need to have been having a much better time in Europe with either victories against the English and Dutch(maybe a Spanish Armada succeeds in taking England timeline) or at least no catastrophic loses like the sinking of their Armada.

And all this happening in a way that they won't need vast garrisoning troops in Europe.

They'll also need to be in a stable union with or antagonistic to the Portuguese.

And the Spanish would need to have had better administration over the Gold and Silver they got from the New world.

To stand a chance at having a King that would at least be confident enough to be convinced into a stringently monitored(to the extent that they can) invasion of China.

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Anyways , a timeline where all that changes is also a good one for maybe th conquer the equivalent of one or two provinces of China then a resurrgent Chinese dynasty allied with the Protestant powers and and overstretched supply line and under paid troops and mercenaries sees the Spanish kicked out and a Chinese friendly with the Protestants, maybe even a Protestant conversion of many Chinese, seeing as they were less annoying than the Catholics missionaries.(Or at least less prone to expulsions).
That's to get approval for a venture of the sort. Then comes the actual financing, recruitment, negotiations to not get involved in other European affairs that are more pressing (no Spanish Armada to begin with would've been more conducive to this plot, seeing as the Spanish Armada invading England would only be the first step; then comes the actual fighting in England, garrisoning English forts, suppressing rebels who have French and Dutch aid). A successful invasion, that's a whole other matter.

Anyways, there's no promising the Chinese would even need Protestant support to kick out the overextended Spanish to begin with. And even if they did, why would they brook Christian conversions? That would be seen as part of what caused the mess to begin with, plus there's the whole matter of if Christian beliefs can be reconciled with Chinese ancestor veneration and all (Martin Luther did . It's not impossible, but it's not something to handwave.

Okay, thanks for the reply.

So while yes, it's very likely Japan is still going to lose the Imjin War, I would say it's going to be much harder to drive them out and thus will take longer. Much longer. Yes, they probably won't establish a permanent presence, but it's also possible they leave behind a very different cultural footprint. At the very least, I anticipate that Korea's gonna be in an even worse time than in OTL, because now that there are no competent naval officers to harry the supply chain on the sea, Japan's going to be reinforcing unmolested, at least through that supply chain. So... Korea's not gonna have any fun for maybe the next couple decades.
Well, there was Yi Eokgi, albeit a bit young. Won Gyun wasn't brilliant, but he probably wouldn't have seen his promotions without Admiral Yi's successes, so who becomes the supreme naval commander so not something I can guess. In any case, the Joseon fleet also wasn't virtually wiped out until the 2nd phase of the war, after initial peace negotiations, and by then the Ming had already established enough of a military presence in Korea that the Japanese failed to make much headway (they managed to make it a quarter of the peninsula that time). So I wouldn't say the Japanese supply lines would be undisturbed. Much less damaged, sure, but the Japanese naval commanders were focused on looting over fighting at the outbreak. The Joseon fleet probably wouldn't have seen the same level of success as OTL without Admiral Yi, but it wouldn't have been a complete nonfactor.

And again, Japan can't stay in Korea more than a couple of years, really. Their own internal politics and Ming armies actually reaching the scene (the Ming had only between 17k and 50k troops in Korea in the first phase of the war, when they pushed the Japanese back to the central region of the peninsula, then increasing to 98k in the second phase) would've ended that in short order. It's worth noting the Ming during negotiations in the ceasefire thought the Japanese were effectively surrendering all their gains. Well, until negotiations broke down once everyone realized the others were on different pages altogether. In any case, once 1616 rolls around and Nurhaci has unified the Jurchen tribes, then there's another factor to consider (the Manchu Invasions were triggered by political events in the Joseon Kingdom and often involved Joseon defectors fleeing political strife and seeking revenge. The Manchu in turn obliged because they wanted a friendly Korea to their southern flank). Rather than trying to bail out hyperaggressive Japanese daimyos busy with fighting each other, Tokyo, and their own subjects, installing their own puppet king over the peninsula sounds much more Nurhaci's style. But that requires saying the Japanese actually hold on until then.

Back to a less handwavy view of the war, the main detriment to Korea in this scenario is, if the Ming do the heavy lifting in liberating the peninsula, the Joseon are now even more obliged to tie themselves to the sinking ship that is the Ming dynasty due to Confucian norms. That was what triggered the Injo Coup and the following Manchu Invasions, which crippled the country for decades.

Culturally, the main thing the invasions caused were a calcification of culture, growing isolationism, and even stricter moral restrictions on women. The royal court felt shaky after the invasions and needed to shut out dangerous outside influences while the widespread rape of Korean women by the armies rampaging through the peninsula led to a weird hyperfixation on the ideal, pure Confucian woman, untouched by war. This stuff is unlikely to change in Yi-less scenario and perhaps might become even more entrenched. OR the Manchu install a puppet, in which case...I don't know. Crown Prince Sohyeon, a Manchu hostage, was apparently quite interested in Western medicine and Christianity after encountering a Jesuit priest in Qing Beijing, but that was his quirk and the general response was not...positive (his father King Injo allegedly beat Sohyeon to death with Sohyeon's present to him or poisoned him soon after he returned and talk about western medical and religious practices. Who knows, Injo was a terrible king).

And I'm not counting the case in which the House of Yi is wiped out because the Joseon were open to tracing back the family line as far back as possible to select the closest agnatic successor. The Joseon once picked an illiterate peasant who was a great, great grandson of a king a century before to be the new King after the previous line died out. As for why he was an illiterate peasant, the Joseon royal family was pretty fond of poison and exile, so there were royal descendants roaming around, subsisting in absolute squalor, far from the capital. Which made it harder to wipe them all out.
 
That's to get approval for a venture of the sort. Then comes the actual financing, recruitment, negotiations to not get involved in other European affairs that are more pressing (no Spanish Armada to begin with would've been more conducive to this plot, seeing as the Spanish Armada invading England would only be the first step; then comes the actual fighting in England, garrisoning English forts, suppressing rebels who have French and Dutch aid). A successful invasion, that's a whole other matter.

Anyways, there's no promising the Chinese would even need Protestant support to kick out the overextended Spanish to begin with. And even if they did, why would they brook Christian conversions? That would be seen as part of what caused the mess to begin with, plus there's the whole matter of if Christian beliefs can be reconciled with Chinese ancestor veneration and all (Martin Luther did . It's not impossible, but it's not something to handwave.


Well, there was Yi Eokgi, albeit a bit young. Won Gyun wasn't brilliant, but he probably wouldn't have seen his promotions without Admiral Yi's successes, so who becomes the supreme naval commander so not something I can guess. In any case, the Joseon fleet also wasn't virtually wiped out until the 2nd phase of the war, after initial peace negotiations, and by then the Ming had already established enough of a military presence in Korea that the Japanese failed to make much headway (they managed to make it a quarter of the peninsula that time). So I wouldn't say the Japanese supply lines would be undisturbed. Much less damaged, sure, but the Japanese naval commanders were focused on looting over fighting at the outbreak. The Joseon fleet probably wouldn't have seen the same level of success as OTL without Admiral Yi, but it wouldn't have been a complete nonfactor.

And again, Japan can't stay in Korea more than a couple of years, really. Their own internal politics and Ming armies actually reaching the scene (the Ming had only between 17k and 50k troops in Korea in the first phase of the war, when they pushed the Japanese back to the central region of the peninsula, then increasing to 98k in the second phase) would've ended that in short order. It's worth noting the Ming during negotiations in the ceasefire thought the Japanese were effectively surrendering all their gains. Well, until negotiations broke down once everyone realized the others were on different pages altogether. In any case, once 1616 rolls around and Nurhaci has unified the Jurchen tribes, then there's another factor to consider (the Manchu Invasions were triggered by political events in the Joseon Kingdom and often involved Joseon defectors fleeing political strife and seeking revenge. The Manchu in turn obliged because they wanted a friendly Korea to their southern flank). Rather than trying to bail out hyperaggressive Japanese daimyos busy with fighting each other, Tokyo, and their own subjects, installing their own puppet king over the peninsula sounds much more Nurhaci's style. But that requires saying the Japanese actually hold on until then.

Back to a less handwavy view of the war, the main detriment to Korea in this scenario is, if the Ming do the heavy lifting in liberating the peninsula, the Joseon are now even more obliged to tie themselves to the sinking ship that is the Ming dynasty due to Confucian norms. That was what triggered the Injo Coup and the following Manchu Invasions, which crippled the country for decades.

Culturally, the main thing the invasions caused were a calcification of culture, growing isolationism, and even stricter moral restrictions on women. The royal court felt shaky after the invasions and needed to shut out dangerous outside influences while the widespread rape of Korean women by the armies rampaging through the peninsula led to a weird hyperfixation on the ideal, pure Confucian woman, untouched by war. This stuff is unlikely to change in Yi-less scenario and perhaps might become even more entrenched. OR the Manchu install a puppet, in which case...I don't know. Crown Prince Sohyeon, a Manchu hostage, was apparently quite interested in Western medicine and Christianity after encountering a Jesuit priest in Qing Beijing, but that was his quirk and the general response was not...positive (his father King Injo allegedly beat Sohyeon to death with Sohyeon's present to him or poisoned him soon after he returned and talk about western medical and religious practices. Who knows, Injo was a terrible king).

And I'm not counting the case in which the House of Yi is wiped out because the Joseon were open to tracing back the family line as far back as possible to select the closest agnatic successor. The Joseon once picked an illiterate peasant who was a great, great grandson of a king a century before to be the new King after the previous line died out. As for why he was an illiterate peasant, the Joseon royal family was pretty fond of poison and exile, so there were royal descendants roaming around, subsisting in absolute squalor, far from the capital. Which made it harder to wipe them all out.
I won't dispute all of this, since you clearly know more about Korea's history than I do, but I will dispute the part on the navy. Largely because, as far as I know, Won Gyun is now the senior commander of Korea's navy - and given how he basically did nothing and burned the ships in OTL, I am not exactly confident he can do anything meaningful aside from getting the navy destroyed completely. While there will probably be something of a navy to oppose Japan, it might end up being a minor annoyance. I don't know, most of my information comes from Kings and Generals.

But I do agree with you on the Ming installing a puppet king or turning Korea into one. It's gonna look like they did all the hard work in driving out Japan, so they're gonna be in a very strong position to dictate what becomes of Korea. A Joseon now even more tied to Ming is... what's gonna happen to it, exactly?
 
I won't dispute all of this, since you clearly know more about Korea's history than I do, but I will dispute the part on the navy. Largely because, as far as I know, Won Gyun is now the senior commander of Korea's navy - and given how he basically did nothing and burned the ships in OTL, I am not exactly confident he can do anything meaningful aside from getting the navy destroyed completely. While there will probably be something of a navy to oppose Japan, it might end up being a minor annoyance. I don't know, most of my information comes from Kings and Generals.

But I do agree with you on the Ming installing a puppet king or turning Korea into one. It's gonna look like they did all the hard work in driving out Japan, so they're gonna be in a very strong position to dictate what becomes of Korea. A Joseon now even more tied to Ming is... what's gonna happen to it, exactly?
Regarding Won Gyun, he likely only lasted in command/survived as long as he did because of Admiral Yi, so I wouldn't say he's guaranteed to stay in command for long. The only naval officer of note I know of is Yi Eokgi, so perhaps he could've taken over? Or Won Gyun could've blundered the navy again, I don't know enough to say much on it, frankly, especially on who would be the commander of the western fleet in this ATL. Won Gyun did accompany Yi Sun Sin for much of the campaigns, so not a terrible assumption that Won Gyun's promotions were due to those shared victories. It really hinges on who's in command of the western fleet and I wouldn't know. That said, I think that's the one area that one can handwave quite reasonably; after all, the Joseon assigned two cavalry commanders on the northern border with no naval experience to be navy commanders, so you could make another Admiral Yi or another Won Gyun, or someone in between.

The Ming didn't need to install a puppet king because the Joseon court was already very much pro-Ming. It was to such a point that when the Joseon king after the war, Gwanghaegun, tried to stay neutral in the Ming-Qing conflict, he was overthrown by pro-Ming factions in court. And then the Qing invaded (twice), and the Joseon became tributaries of the Qing. I can't really speak to why the Qing never bothered taking land from the Joseon (my best guess is that they saw it as more trouble than it was worth. Why garrison the land when the rulers are already giving you tribute? Especially when those troops could be used for conquering and consolidating China, a far richer and more vulnerable region?). I don't see how it'd be different if the Ming installed a direct puppet or what not. They're not going to annex Korea because the Ming are already teetering and adding more foreign subjects suffering a famine that needs to be relieved to the situation isn't unlike trying to put a fire out with kerosene.
 
Anyways, there's no promising the Chinese would even need Protestant support to kick out the overextended Spanish to begin with. And even if they did, why would they brook Christian conversions? That would be seen as part of what caused the mess to begin with, plus there's the whole matter of if Christian beliefs can be reconciled with Chinese ancestor veneration and all (Martin Luther did . It's not impossible, but it's not something to handwave.
I don't think they'll need Protestant help necessarily but I do still think they and the Protestants would ally, having mutual enemy and the Protestants wanting to gain China as an ally and market.

As for the Religion stuff, I once read somewhere that the Chinese initially thought Protestantism and Catholicism were different religions due to the prominent veneration of Mary in Catholicism. And hell, China today classifies them separately in their list of accepted Religions.
 
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As for the Religion stuff, I once read somewhere that the Chinese initially thought Protestantism and Catholicism were different religions due to the prominent veneration of Mary in Catholicism. And hell, China today classifies them separately in their list of accepted Religions.

Be that as it may, they're both foreign religions from essentially the same place, and they both proselytize aggressively, so they'd both be seen as potentially disruptive.
 
Be that as it may, they're both foreign religions from essentially the same place, and they both proselytize aggressively, so they'd both be seen as potentially disruptive.
Eh, I don't think Protestantism of that era was evangelized agressively. Afterall, that's why the Dutch were able to work with the Japanese and I think the now Christian parts of Indonesia were largely converted by American(or Anglo) based varients of Protestantism, not the Dutch.

And how agressively the Anglos try to convert people depends on the time period, tho again, largely after the American revolution m
 
Eh, I don't think Protestantism of that era was evangelized agressively. Afterall, that's why the Dutch were able to work with the Japanese and I think the now Christian parts of Indonesia were largely converted by American(or Anglo) based varients of Protestantism, not the Dutch.

And how agressively the Anglos try to convert people depends on the time period, tho again, largely after the American revolution m
Again, what does this have to do with the POD I proposed?
 

Basils

Banned
An ascendant Qing or Shun probably wouldn't want the Japanese in Korea either so continued conflict with a Chinese empire if not the Ming is pretty much inevitable
True. But you’re talking about something that would happen a decade or three after the dust has already settled. China has historically done poorly campaigning in Korea
 
True. But you’re talking about something that would happen a decade or three after the dust has already settled. China has historically done poorly campaigning in Korea
Historically when lacking support from Korea itself. The Tang struggled against the Gorguryeo Kingdom until they formed an alliance with the Silla, then proceeded to annex much of Korea before getting pushed out by the Silla. Korean rebels would be restless under Japanese occupation, especially after all the massacres, and would more than likely support the Chinese in their campaign. That alone changes the situation quite significantly. The more accurate assessment would be that China has historically done poorly invading Korea without local support. Liberating, that doesn't fit that model.

Also on the note regarding the Japanese wiping out the population of Korea to prevent rebellions, they did exterminate entire cities (Jinju) and kidnapped entire lineages of craftsmen. The population of Korea decreased by 1-3 million, and that still left 6-9 million. The cost to actually wipe the peninsula clean (sweep the mountains, destroy all the fields while also provisioning the Japanese troops, capture the remaining strongholds that are now fighting even more desperately due to knowing it's death if they surrender) is not something Hideyoshi's regime can sustain, not while the heir is a child, China is hostile, Tokugawa Ieyasu is himself, and their losses remain high (something like 1/3 of Japanese troops were causalities within the first year, IIRC, though that was also with Admiral Yi's efforts kicking in after a few months of fighting).
 
Also on the note regarding the Japanese wiping out the population of Korea to prevent rebellions, they did exterminate entire cities (Jinju) and kidnapped entire lineages of craftsmen. The population of Korea decreased by 1-3 million, and that still left 6-9 million. The cost to actually wipe the peninsula clean (sweep the mountains, destroy all the fields while also provisioning the Japanese troops, capture the remaining strongholds that are now fighting even more desperately due to knowing it's death if they surrender) is not something Hideyoshi's regime can sustain, not while the heir is a child, China is hostile, Tokugawa Ieyasu is himself, and their losses remain high (something like 1/3 of Japanese troops were causalities within the first year, IIRC, though that was also with Admiral Yi's efforts kicking in after a few months of fighting).
Also, Hideyoshi's plan was to conscript the Koreans into his army and use them to conquer Beijing. Slaughtering the entire Korean population would be counterproductive in that regard, for obvious reasons.
 
A couple things worth noting:
1. Hideyoshi is still likely going to die before his heir comes of age, considering he was 62 and his son Hideyori was 5 in 1598. Tokugawa Ieyasu still has great ambitions and the Hideyoshi supporters in Japan, rather than being strengthened by the conquests, will probably need years for their gambit in Korea to actually pay off. Not only will the peninsula's arable lands still be devastated due to the war itself, the primary beneficiaries of the war will need to garrison their new holdings with a not inconsiderable percent of their forces due to guerilla activities. Sekigahara was only 2 years after the Imjin War ended, so the Tokugawa becoming ascendant is not butterflied away.

2. The Ming initially dragged its feet because the Ming court was suspecting the Joseon were collaborating with the Japanese and faking an invasion, based on how quickly the peninsula fell. Hideyoshi's endgoal being the invasion of China itself would likely be enough to get the Ming to commit more heavily in the war than OTL, though supply lines are going to be the main bottleneck. That said, while supplies were a major issue, the internal squabbling between Japanese generals about who would get more glory and their tendency to march faster their their overland supply lines could be established were also a major factor in both the Japanese defeat and the eventual defeat of the Toyotomi clan at Sekigahara.

3. Speaking of supplies, Admiral Yi was vital is cutting off the overseas supply lines for the Japanese, but his absence does not butterfly away the presence of volunteer militias (Righteous Armies) that would harry the Japanese on the peninsula itself or the farmlands being ruined or abandoned during the war. Japanese forces were reported to be extremely brutal with their massacres and the rape of Korean women by Japanese soldiers was a rallying call for the peasantry to rise up. Add to that the monks in their mountain temples and the general terrain of Korea itself (forested mountains and hills everywhere you look) that the locals know from birth and the Japanese will be unfamiliar with, and that's years of unrest that will be difficult to pacify, if ever. The Righteous Armies also co-opted the army's artillery supplies, apparently, so it would be more difficult to gain total control.

4. During negotiations with the Ming, the Ming would not brook the thought of considering Japan an equal. Remember, this is the court that, even when their own armies of tens and hundreds of thousands were getting swept aside by the Later Jin, later Qing, forces, refused to compromise with Hong Taiji and simply give tribute. Hideyoshi is even more brazen than that, demanding not only a Ming princess and recognition of imperial stature the Ming refused to give the Manchu even after incredibly brutal defeats.

5. Hideyoshi only demanded half of Korea probably because he wasn't actively winning anymore. If Japanese forces are doing better than OTL, why would Hideyoshi, the man who intends on usurping the Ming emperor, settle for what he demanded when his final victory was far harder to attain? And that is in direct conflict with 4., so a negotiated peace is not an option, not without a great deal more conflict. Regardless of the situation, you have two parties that lack humility as much as they have bodies to throw into the meatgrinder. Regardless, I would say a north south split is not in cards in this situation. You'd need Hideyoshi tempering his ambitions (which would happen if the war is not going well for Japan) and the Ming getting exhausted much earlier (bit mutually exclusive, those two) to have that happen.

6. Apparently the Japanese also invaded the Jurchen during this whole mess and likely don't intend on playing nice with them, considering Hideyoshi's megalomania and Nurhaci's own ambitions. Heaven cannot brook two suns, after all, and the Jurchen and Japanese cannot both conquer China. And only one of them reliably recruited Ming turncoats and co-opted Ming bureaucracy.

TLDR: Regardless of who wins the war on the field, the Ming have been bullheaded enough to refuse peace and keep fighting with even worse losses rather than recognize another nation as of equal stature. The Japanese are not going to settle on half the peninsula if they seem like they're winning more easily than in OTL, not being led by a megalomaniac like Toyotomi Hideyoshi, so no partition. The Korean countryside is not going to be pacified after the initial wave of brutality, nor will the fields be enough to sustain the locals, let alone the invaders, and as such the Japanese are not going to see returns on their conquest for at least a few decades. Japan is also not going to be stable for long after the war after Toyotomi Hideyoshi dies and leaves behind a child under the ambitious watch of Tokugawa Ieyasu.

Based on all that, I'd say the most likely outcome is that the Ming, after reaching their logistical limits, withdraw to a more defensible border and sign a ceasefire that doesn't acknowledge Japanese gains or gives Hideyoshi what he wants. They'll keep funding the Righteous Armies to harry the Japanese relentlessly. The Japanese daimyos are going to squabble over their gains while also having to put down rebellions constantly, which will drain their forces. I don't believe Admiral Yi's existence is going to alter Hideyoshi's death all that much seeing they weren't within 500 km of each other, so, assuming he dies on schedule, Tokugawa Ieyasu has an easy time rolling over the Toyotomi forces at Sekigahara, now split between Korea and Japan. And at that point, we have rebel daimyos in Japan refusing to submit to the Tokugawa, a vengeful Ming, a turbulent Korean countryside full of rebels, and Jurchen tribes in the process of unifying.
Very good points with the exception of Hideyoshi. Either because his son was born (he became more interested in securing his succession than Korea) or because of his age he lost a great deal of interest in the Korean war OTL - and these factors are still present. Even if things go significantly better OTL he would likely loose interest and try to find some end of the conflict - because even if he is more successfull it would become evident that pacifying Korea would take a long time and the conquest of China even longer (even if the successes allow him to continue to believe it possibel) - time, energy and attention. He had not much of the first 2 and all he had he was willing to concentrate on securing the sucession. Im not sure his pride would allow him to make a peace with the chinese as the latter are unlikely to offer better terms than OTL but a situation where he is trapped in success is imaginable. He wants to get out of Korea and concetrate on the succession but his troops winning wont allow him to abandon the venture (assuming that with the Korean navy defeated and the japanese troops resupplied by water they manage to throw back the chinese forces). This could result in a situation where the chinese are willing to give up Korea or at least a big chunk of Korea and Hideyoshi is willing to accept to finally end the conflict.
 
Very good points with the exception of Hideyoshi. Either because his son was born (he became more interested in securing his succession than Korea) or because of his age he lost a great deal of interest in the Korean war OTL - and these factors are still present. Even if things go significantly better OTL he would likely loose interest and try to find some end of the conflict - because even if he is more successfull it would become evident that pacifying Korea would take a long time and the conquest of China even longer (even if the successes allow him to continue to believe it possibel) - time, energy and attention. He had not much of the first 2 and all he had he was willing to concentrate on securing the sucession. Im not sure his pride would allow him to make a peace with the chinese as the latter are unlikely to offer better terms than OTL but a situation where he is trapped in success is imaginable. He wants to get out of Korea and concetrate on the succession but his troops winning wont allow him to abandon the venture (assuming that with the Korean navy defeated and the japanese troops resupplied by water they manage to throw back the chinese forces). This could result in a situation where the chinese are willing to give up Korea or at least a big chunk of Korea and Hideyoshi is willing to accept to finally end the conflict.
The issue that I find with that proposal is that, even while losing (yes, Hideyoshi thought he was winning because the Ming were willing to negotiate, but that makes it apparent how poor the communication was between him and his generals, which doesn't help in negotiations), Hideyoshi assumed that he could not only annex Korean land but also get a Ming princess for the Japanese emperor and recognition of Japan as an equal to the Ming. Even if he wanted a quicker peace to refocus on the succession and couldn't not demand land because he needed to reward his subordinates, he didn't need to add the demand for a Ming princess, which was a major blocker during the actual negotiations, nor the imposition of free trade between the Ming and Japan (the Ming were not keen on free trade, hence the Ming sea ban). Nor did he make an attempt to correct the negotiations after the investiture debacle and instead proceeded to reinvade the Korean peninsula. That does not give the impression that Hideyoshi was willing to compromise for peace, even if it was to cement his son's succession. On one hand, sunk cost fallacy (it was the only way to strengthen Japan's position at the table after beginning a reduction in troops); on the other, if the Ming don't give him as much recognition as he demands, he's not going to take it very well. Land is one thing, but Hideyoshi's correspondance with the Ming indicates that he wanted Japan to be accepted as an equal to China. Based on the Ming's 'diplomacy' with the Later Jin/Qing, that's one thing that cannot happen and that would probably stall out negotiations as in OTL (partially due to the above, partially due to the below).

Plus, that also sidesteps the whole issue of the negotiators for both the Ming and Japan being utterly untrustworthy and tricking their heads of state by not relaying the correct set of demands/concessions and forging their own for 3 years. Kato Kiyomasa and Konishi Yukinaga were actively trying to sabotage each other, no one trusted Shen Weijing, and the Japanese also massacred an entire town during the negotiations process. Not to mention Konishi Yukinaga deliberately hid information and lied in order to get a quicker peace, to the point he asked the translator not to read the parts of the Ming demands that might offend Hideyoshi. Which the translator refused and Hideyoshi, incensed, renewed the war rather than try negotiating further. The chances that negotiations actually go properly and result in an actual peace, based on who did what OTL, is close to nil in any situation other than complete victory/defeat for either side, I imagine. And then we still end up with the 'endless war right before a succession involving a child' issue.

Hideyoshi might have wanted to get a faster peace, sure, but he took stalemate to be a victory and made untenable demands that the negotiators managed to completely mangle in the pursuit of peace. If he had victory after victory, who knows what he would have demanded and how the negotiators would've fudged the details. I just don't see any situation where, given the same cast sans Admiral Yi, negotiations actually result in peace.
 
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