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Banned
It depends on when Kido Butai is spotted.
The worst case scenario for the Japanese would be to be spotted the evening before the attack.
The Pacific Fleet will slip out of PH no later than at dusk. Some have said the ships would be vulnerable to air raids but the Japanese have to find them first. At a speed of 20 knots they could be 160 nautical miles away from PH in any direction. The first wave was preceded by two of four scout planes. Assuming they are not shot down –a big IF- the first wave will be alerted no more than one hour before they reach PH. At that stage they would have to split up with the dive bombers proceeding towards PH and the torpedo planes searching for the US fleet. Nagumo will order the second wave to be re-armed and here the shit could hit the proverbial fan.
The USAAF had 140 fighters and app. 70 twin engine bombers on PH, Navy and Marines had 21 Wildcats, 8 Buffalos, and 34 dive bombers. That is more than enough to intercept the incoming airstrike, give the fleet a CAP and lauch airstrikes at Kido Butai. IOTL Enterprise was close to PH, with a few hours of warning she might be able to join.
If the warning comes just 75 minutes before the attack and is taken serious, it is more than enough time to get every land and ship borne AA-gun ready –the US had lots of both-, disperse the planes and get some in the air. IOTL the first US fighters took of 45 minutes after the attacks begun. With regard to the ships, they might be able to get moving after app. one hour earliest like USS Nevada, which means all would be still inside the port.
In any case airplane losses would be very high for the Japanese. They get either overwhelmed by US fighters that outnumber their escort by a factor of two to three or cut up by the triple-A when they make their slow and low attack runs. US battleship losses would be temporarily at worst.
The worst case scenario for the Japanese would be to be spotted the evening before the attack.
The Pacific Fleet will slip out of PH no later than at dusk. Some have said the ships would be vulnerable to air raids but the Japanese have to find them first. At a speed of 20 knots they could be 160 nautical miles away from PH in any direction. The first wave was preceded by two of four scout planes. Assuming they are not shot down –a big IF- the first wave will be alerted no more than one hour before they reach PH. At that stage they would have to split up with the dive bombers proceeding towards PH and the torpedo planes searching for the US fleet. Nagumo will order the second wave to be re-armed and here the shit could hit the proverbial fan.
The USAAF had 140 fighters and app. 70 twin engine bombers on PH, Navy and Marines had 21 Wildcats, 8 Buffalos, and 34 dive bombers. That is more than enough to intercept the incoming airstrike, give the fleet a CAP and lauch airstrikes at Kido Butai. IOTL Enterprise was close to PH, with a few hours of warning she might be able to join.
If the warning comes just 75 minutes before the attack and is taken serious, it is more than enough time to get every land and ship borne AA-gun ready –the US had lots of both-, disperse the planes and get some in the air. IOTL the first US fighters took of 45 minutes after the attacks begun. With regard to the ships, they might be able to get moving after app. one hour earliest like USS Nevada, which means all would be still inside the port.
In any case airplane losses would be very high for the Japanese. They get either overwhelmed by US fighters that outnumber their escort by a factor of two to three or cut up by the triple-A when they make their slow and low attack runs. US battleship losses would be temporarily at worst.