WI: Adlai Stevenson Skips 1956, Runs In 1960

A frequently used POD on the forum is WJB not running in 1908 and then becoming the 1912 Democratic nominee (and president). However, I’d like to propose an idea with another multiple time nominee, Adlai Stevenson. Stevenson was the nominee in 1952 and 1956, but lost in 1960 to Kennedy (with his past two losses hurting his chances despite being personally popular). So, what if Stevenson doesn’t run? Who will replace him as the nominee; Harriman perhaps? Can he win in 1960 against the Kennedy and LBJ machines with his conventional New Dealer support? Does he beat Nixon? What if?
 
Something of a maverick, especially in the south, Estes Kefauver might be a reasonable choice for the Dems in '56. He'd be palatable to northerners. If he chose John F. Kennedy as his running mate, 1956 probably wouldn't be a landslide as it was IOTL--close, but not quite: after all, we're talking Ike as an incumbent.

Stevenson in '60--if he manages to pull it off--probably means another Midwesterner (Humphrey would be my guess) as his running mate. That removes Lodge as Nixon's running mate, meaning someone like one of the Mortons (Rogers or Thruston) or maybe MD governor McKeldin. Any of them would bring more to the table than did Lodge.

The '60 campaign would have the potential of getting nasty, though. Stevenson had a quick wit, and wouldn't have hesitated to use it on Nixon. On the flip side, Nixon would probably say that Stevenson is wasting time joking rather than focusing on issues. Then it escalates, with the barbs getting sharper. Also, I don't see debates happening. On the whole, the GOP would likely unite behind Nixon focusing on the memory of Stevenson in '52 (and the mud McCarthy threw at him). The '60 election would be razor thin as IOTL, but I think Ike's successor would be Nixon rather than Stevenson.

Interesting butterflies: no Kennedy in '60 (maybe '64?), and no Lyndon Johnson (probably remains in the Senate; don't know if he'd be able to work with Nixon as he did with Ike). Probably no Goldwater, either. Viet Nam might be replaced by Cuba as the third rail of American foreign policy.
 
Something of a maverick, especially in the south, Estes Kefauver might be a reasonable choice for the Dems in '56. He'd be palatable to northerners. If he chose John F. Kennedy as his running mate, 1956 probably wouldn't be a landslide as it was IOTL--close, but not quite: after all, we're talking Ike as an incumbent.
Problem is that a lot of the Democratic Machine politicos hated him for the very investigations that made him famous, and I don't believe that hate ever abated. If anything we would probably be looking at a repeat of the '52 Democratic Convention where Kefauver has by and large swept the primaries but is considerably behind on delegates all the same, struggling to claw his way to a majority. There would probably be an attempted rally by the bosses around Governor Harriman at the behest of Mister Truman, but I suppose it could go either way; ultimately it would have been a multi-ballot affair.

Also both men would have distressed the Southern delegations, both being fairly to the Left when it came to Civil Rights and Kefauver having tried to essentially strip the voting rights of their delegations in '52 so as to make his nomination fight easier; that means the South probably will swing more in the Republicans favor, either because they actually pick up voters opposed to the Democratic nominee or because the Democrats lose voters to Unpledged Slates put up by dissatisfied local Democrats. I imagine Kefauver would also be weaker in the North as well at this time if he can't manage to get the Machines behind him, but that probably won't matter much either way given those same Machines should be pushing voters in favor of Democratic candidates down the ballot.
 
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