WI a Union victory at Bull Run?

Blair152

Banned
OTL, the Battle of Bull Run, (Mannassas, in the South), was a disaster for the
Union. It was its first defeat. The First Battle of Bull Run, (July 21, 1861),
was the Confederates' first victory. Ervin McDowell, the commander of the
Army of the Potomac, was later relieved by Lincoln in favor of George B.
McClellan. WI a Union victory at Bull Run? What would McDowell have to do
differently?
 
I don't know much about Mcdowell, but suspect he was too old and unimaginitive to have been an effective leader there or anywhere. Had the Union won for whatever reason, [maybe the reinforcements from the valley don't get there in time] they probably would have been just as disorganised in victory as the ATL Confederates were. So it is unlikely they will follow up with a quick push towards Richmond, which would be the obvious thing to do. It might or might not be the best tactical move, but it would certainly sap the south's morale, for the capital city to be threatened that early in the war.
 

Blair152

Banned
I don't know much about Mcdowell, but suspect he was too old and unimaginitive to have been an effective leader there or anywhere. Had the Union won for whatever reason, [maybe the reinforcements from the valley don't get there in time] they probably would have been just as disorganised in victory as the ATL Confederates were. So it is unlikely they will follow up with a quick push towards Richmond, which would be the obvious thing to do. It might or might not be the best tactical move, but it would certainly sap the south's morale, for the capital city to be threatened that early in the war.
You're probably right here. Of course, if the Union had had Robert E. Lee,
instead of going through a plethora of incompetent nincompoops, before
getting Grant, the war would have ended sooner. Meade had faced the same
problem after Gettysburg.
 
What's 'quick' here? There aren't any good defensive positions between Bull Run and Richmond, really...the Confederates' next place to stand and fight is only 7 miles from Richmond. So McDowell and the Union are disorganized, slow and failed to plan for victory...even if it takes them a month, the next battle is on Davis' doorstep, and the Union will outnumber them by at least 2:1, perhaps 3:1, depending on how patient and cautious McDowell is. And it's not a GREAT defensive position. The Union takes Richmond about September. The Confederate government will easily relocate back to Montgomery rather than be captured, but their credibility is now shot. I don't think the Confederacy will hold together well, and the rebel states may well have to be reconquered one by one.

Unfortunately, this means Lincoln, Stanton and the Congress now think they can expect miracles. When McDowell fails to deliver, or the Confederates get a miracle of their own, the blowup will be messy.
 

Blair152

Banned
What's 'quick' here? There aren't any good defensive positions between Bull Run and Richmond, really...the Confederates' next place to stand and fight is only 7 miles from Richmond. So McDowell and the Union are disorganized, slow and failed to plan for victory...even if it takes them a month, the next battle is on Davis' doorstep, and the Union will outnumber them by at least 2:1, perhaps 3:1, depending on how patient and cautious McDowell is. And it's not a GREAT defensive position. The Union takes Richmond about September. The Confederate government will easily relocate back to Montgomery rather than be captured, but their credibility is now shot. I don't think the Confederacy will hold together well, and the rebel states may well have to be reconquered one by one.

Unfortunately, this means Lincoln, Stanton and the Congress now think they can expect miracles. When McDowell fails to deliver, or the Confederates get a miracle of their own, the blowup will be messy.
Very true. Still, at the beginning of the war, the Commanding General of the Army of the Potomac, was Winfield Scott, who was too old by then.
Montgomery Blair, a supporter of Lincoln, had invited Robert E. Lee to his
house, (now the official government guest house), to ask him to be the
commander of the Army of the Potomac, but Lee said no. He couldn't fight against his country.
 

Cook

Banned
I don't know much about Mcdowell, but suspect he was too old and unimaginitive to have been an effective leader there or anywhere.

McDowell very nearly did win the Battle of Bull Run so the Old and Unimaginative is probably unfair. Had McDowell been able to keep discipline in his inexperience troops and prevented many from breaking ranks to collect souvenirs it would have helped.
Certainly things would have been as disorganised for the Union in Victory as it was for the Confederates; both sides had limited training and no experience. But as Shawn said, there are few natural obstacles between Bull Run and Richmond to establish a new defensive line at.
I would not however expect Richmond to fall quite that quickly or the Confederacy to collapse that quickly if it did. They still had a great deal of potential at that stage in the Civil War.
...So it is unlikely they will follow up with a quick push towards Richmond, which would be the obvious thing to do. It might or might not be the best tactical move, ...

It is a Strategic move, not a tactical one.

...was Winfield Scott, who was too old by then..

Winfield Scott was not a field commander, his position was more analogous of General Marshall’s in World War Two.
 


McDowell very nearly did win the Battle of Bull Run so the Old and Unimaginative is probably unfair. Had McDowell been able to keep discipline in his inexperience troops and prevented many from breaking ranks to collect souvenirs it would have helped.
Certainly things would have been as disorganised for the Union in Victory as it was for the Confederates; both sides had limited training and no experience. But as Shawn said, there are few natural obstacles between Bull Run and Richmond to establish a new defensive line at.
I would not however expect Richmond to fall quite that quickly or the Confederacy to collapse that quickly if it did. They still had a great deal of potential at that stage in the Civil War.


It is a Strategic move, not a tactical one.



Winfield Scott was not a field commander, his position was more analogous of General Marshall’s in World War Two.

Watch out everybody. A certain someone has apparently not discovered this thread yet. When he does, he'll proceed to explain that not only is THIS thread complete ASB, but OTL:eek::rolleyes: is complete ASB.:D:mad: What else can explain a world in which the incomparable invincible unstoppable unimpeachable unrelenting irresistible Army of Northern Virginia is forced to unconditionally surrender to an acutely alcoholic supreme loser like Ulysses S. Grant? If there is anyone out there who doesn't know who I mean, welcome to the forum! (Because you can't have been here very long):)

PS I miss April the 1st
 
What's 'quick' here? There aren't any good defensive positions between Bull Run and Richmond, really...the Confederates' next place to stand and fight is only 7 miles from Richmond.

Don't know much about Virginia geography, do we? There are in fact a number of good defensive lines available between Manassas and Richmond. Ever hear of the Rappahannock and Rapidan Rivers? How about the North Anna? The Wilderness? To name just a few. You might not be aware of these places, but the Confederates certainly were. Heck, Robert E. Lee used most of them at one time or another later in the war. The idea that the Confederates would have no place to make a stand until they got within 7 miles of Richmond is quite simply ludicrous.

So McDowell and the Union are disorganized, slow and failed to plan for victory...even if it takes them a month, the next battle is on Davis' doorstep, and the Union will outnumber them by at least 2:1, perhaps 3:1, depending on how patient and cautious McDowell is. And it's not a GREAT defensive position. The Union takes Richmond about September.

You are forgetting one thing...McDowell didn't make plans for an advance on Richmond in the aftermath of a successful attack on Manassas, and he had good reason for that. It wasn't just that the Union army was disorganized. Most of it was composed of 90 day volunteers whose enlistments were about to expire. If he had advanced from Manassas he would have found his army melting away around him as these volunteers went home. It takes time to train replacement soldiers. That's why McClellan didn't make an attempt to resume the campaign until the following Spring. By that time, the Confederates have had time to recover and are ready to face the Union. Furthermore, they've had the hard lesson that First Manassas, in OTL, gave the Union, and Confederate policies are now based on a much more realistic assessment of the Union's capabilities (no more "we'll beat them with cornstalks" stuff). McDowell is going face a very tough road when he finally does advance on Richmond in the Spring of 1862.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
You are forgetting one thing...McDowell didn't make plans for an advance on Richmond in the aftermath of a successful attack on Manassas, and he had good reason for that. It wasn't just that the Union army was disorganized. Most of it was composed of 90 day volunteers whose enlistments were about to expire. If he had advanced from Manassas he would have found his army melting away around him as these volunteers went home. It takes time to train replacement soldiers. That's why McClellan didn't make an attempt to resume the campaign until the following Spring. By that time, the Confederates have had time to recover and are ready to face the Union. Furthermore, they've had the hard lesson that First Manassas, in OTL, gave the Union, and Confederate policies are now based on a much more realistic assessment of the Union's capabilities (no more "we'll beat them with cornstalks" stuff). McDowell is going face a very tough road when he finally does advance on Richmond in the Spring of 1862.

Also, Scott's ideas were to avoid invasion of the south completely, and simply siege them out. Unless he's replaced (by McClellan OTL) then any major move against Virginia is right out.
 

67th Tigers

Banned
What's 'quick' here? There aren't any good defensive positions between Bull Run and Richmond, really...the Confederates' next place to stand and fight is only 7 miles from Richmond. So McDowell and the Union are disorganized, slow and failed to plan for victory...even if it takes them a month, the next battle is on Davis' doorstep, and the Union will outnumber them by at least 2:1, perhaps 3:1, depending on how patient and cautious McDowell is.

Except the CS Army prettymuch outnumbered the US Army until around Christmas 1861, their mobilisation of manpower was far more impressive than the Unions. Indeed, the lost causers idea that the Union simply beat them down with numbers holds little water.
 
"Why a southerner can whip TWENTY Yankees!"

Except the CS Army prettymuch outnumbered the US Army until around Christmas 1861, their mobilisation of manpower was far more impressive than the Unions. Indeed, the lost causers idea that the Union simply beat them down with numbers holds little water.

Cook
robertp6165
Shawn Endresen
Blair152
oudi14

To paraphrase the little girl from the Poltergeist trilogy:

"HE'S HEEEEERE!":eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
 
Top