WI: A Truly Perpetual Peace?

What would be the effects of Rome and Iran actually sticking to the Treaty of Perpetual Peace between Justinian and Khusrau (signed in 532)? Perhaps not really sticking to it for Eternity as was originally intended, but at least for a longer period of time? How could this happen? Could the Roman-Persian War in the 7th century not happen, and if so what are the effects on the birth of Islam and the Arab conquests (if they even happen)?
 
Justinian didn’t realize that peace would last as long as Cosroe was embroiled in conflicts and revolts at home: at the time Cosroe was dealing with his brother’s revolt and religious disputes. However it should be possible to have peace last longer. Either give Cosroe more problems to deal with, or alternatively don’t give him the idea that he can march against Antioch unopposed. That way he would think twice before declaring war and if the Gothic war in the West end earlier, then he probably won’t get another chance.

If you change this you just butterflied one of the longest conflict of the VI century, thus the exact dynamics that led to the overthrow of Maurice and the rise of Phokas. This doesn’t mean the end of conflicts in the East but you probably won’t see the level of destruction of the last war that led both empires to the brink of extinction (with one of them being effectively and completely overrun by the Arabs after the war).

Also the war between Justinian and Cosroe was one of the most expensive conflicts, with very limited gains (compared to the wars in the West), of his reign. Avoiding this war would allow Justinian to use his money and resources in a different way, without having to tax the people of the West till exhaustion. If Islam is not butterflied with this POD, it’s conquests outside Arabia probably would.
 
Justinian didn’t realize that peace would last as long as Cosroe was embroiled in conflicts and revolts at home: at the time Cosroe was dealing with his brother’s revolt and religious disputes. However it should be possible to have peace last longer. Either give Cosroe more problems to deal with, or alternatively don’t give him the idea that he can march against Antioch unopposed. That way he would think twice before declaring war and if the Gothic war in the West end earlier, then he probably won’t get another chance.

If you change this you just butterflied one of the longest conflict of the VI century, thus the exact dynamics that led to the overthrow of Maurice and the rise of Phokas. This doesn’t mean the end of conflicts in the East but you probably won’t see the level of destruction of the last war that led both empires to the brink of extinction (with one of them being effectively and completely overrun by the Arabs after the war).

Also the war between Justinian and Cosroe was one of the most expensive conflicts, with very limited gains (compared to the wars in the West), of his reign. Avoiding this war would allow Justinian to use his money and resources in a different way, without having to tax the people of the West till exhaustion. If Islam is not butterflied with this POD, it’s conquests outside Arabia probably would.

With more of his forces and focus turned back west, could Justinian get even closer to reunifying the Roman Empire? What would further confrontations with western states, especially the Franks, look like? Additionally, how could you be so certain that the conquests outside of Arabia would be completely unlikely: I find it unlikely that an invading force from Arabia would be unable to use the religious strife of Syria, Egypt, and Africa (with Monophysites, Docetists, and Arians still around in those regions) or the indefensible position of Ctesiphon in Mesopotamia (seeing as scholars like the late Patricia Crone focus on the location of the Sasanian capital as a major factor in the sudden ease that the Arabs had in overruning Iran) to their advantage. I definitely do think that the conquests could be less impactful: could an effective defense be put forward to stop the push into northern Syria?

How long could the Perpetual Peace last do you think? Does it butterfly away a lot of the later conflicts (especially the war of 602-628)
 

Philip

Donor
Additionally, how could you be so certain that the conquests outside of Arabia would be completely unlikely:

Without a unifying force, the Arabs would not likely be able to generate the military power for conquests. The Romans and Persians would continue play their allies off the other tribes. Factor in a long period where both Rome and Persia are at peace and they will plenty of strength to repel invasions.

I do think that the demographics of Arabia with lead to migrations.

I find it unlikely that an invading force from Arabia would be unable to use the religious strife of Syria, Egypt, and Africa (with Monophysites, Docetists, and Arians still around in those regions)

All three were in decline at the beginning of the seventh century OTL. Without the Sassanid success at the beginning of that final war with Rome, Miaphysitism would likely have faded away within Rome. ITTL, they are likely to face even more pressure. They could continue within Persia, competing with the Nestorians, but neither were likely to rebel.
 
The Muslims would probably not be able to conquer Persia or the Middle Eastern/North African territories of the Roman Empire. The extensive and costly wars between Rome and Persia left them to weak to put up a sufficient Defense. With out the wars, they would be in a MUCH better position. They would still probably loose some territory though
 
With more of his forces and focus turned back west, could Justinian get even closer to reunifying the Roman Empire? What would further confrontations with western states, especially the Franks, look like? Additionally, how could you be so certain that the conquests outside of Arabia would be completely unlikely: I find it unlikely that an invading force from Arabia would be unable to use the religious strife of Syria, Egypt, and Africa (with Monophysites, Docetists, and Arians still around in those regions) or the indefensible position of Ctesiphon in Mesopotamia (seeing as scholars like the late Patricia Crone focus on the location of the Sasanian capital as a major factor in the sudden ease that the Arabs had in overruning Iran) to their advantage. I definitely do think that the conquests could be less impactful: could an effective defense be put forward to stop the push into northern Syria?

How long could the Perpetual Peace last do you think? Does it butterfly away a lot of the later conflicts (especially the war of 602-628)
I don’t see a complete restoration of the empire under a single emperor as something feasible, but maybe his invasion of Spain could be more successful with more resources available to him. Personally I would focus on restoring the Danubian Limes ( or at least the Danubian-Drava border), since barbarian tribes there not only threaten communication between the East and West but also one of the main source of manpower for the empire. Anastasius and his predecessors spent lot of efforts trying to secure once again the region and so Justinian should focus on preserving the east before embarking on new expedition in the West.

With a stronger Roman presence in Italy and maybe Spain, Constantinople could decide that keeping the Franks divided could be more beneficial for them, however more importantly they should try to prevent the rise of a hegemonic power beyond the Danube.

As Philip said, this branches of Christianity were either dying or being integrated into the official doctrine at the beginning of the VII century, thus the empire was slowly overcoming this problem, however we should remember that internal strife didn’t cause the collapse of the empire ( and Persia), 25 years of war did. With both empire ready to intervene I think the rise of a hegemonic power in Arabia would be thwarted by both empires.

It’s hard to predict how long the Perpetual peace would last without knowing the course of actions of this alternate Justinian and Cosroe and the exact POD that avoided the war
 
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