WI: a troubled 1981

[Eurofed]

Let's assume that:

Ronald Reagan is assassinated;

Pope John Paul II is assassinated and sufficient evidence of WarPac intelligence involvement in the conspiracy emerges;

by whatever political butterflies necessary within the Soviet Politburo (in all likelihood including the early death of Andropov, that opposed intervention IOTL), the USSR reacts to the rise of the Solidarnosc movement in Poland by invading the country in 1980-82 (anytime from late 1980 to early 1982, depending on butterflies).

The invasion ends being a rather bloody affair much akin to 1956 Hungary, with a sizable amount of Pole insurgents (quite possibly including sectors of the Polish army that side with the rebels) fighting the invasion for days or weeks (even if the Red Army is of course victorious in the end).

 

[The Red]

Do they occur in that order?

 

[Wendell]

This is interesting, because those living in such a timeline would be unaware of the atual POD, and may well contend that the bad times began with the Iranian revolution.

 

[Eurofed]

Do they occur in that order?

Obviously not. The Soviet invasion of Poland may happen anytime from late 1980 to early 1982.

 

[MerryPrankster]

I can easily imagine Soviet involvement in the assassination of John Paul II--Robert Kaplan makes a case for that in one of his books, that they used a radical Turkish proxy for the attempt.

However, I'm pretty sure there wasn't Soviet involvement in the assassination attempt on Reagan. They would have been smart enough to know that attacking the person of the U.S. President--the one with nuclear launch authority--could be considered the prelude to a nuclear attack.

(Decapitation.)

 

[Eurofed]

I can easily imagine Soviet involvement in the assassination of John Paul II--Robert Kaplan makes a case for that in one of his books, that they used a radical Turkish proxy for the attempt.

However, I'm pretty sure there wasn't Soviet involvement in the assassination attempt on Reagan. They would have been smart enough to know that attacking the person of the U.S. President--the one with nuclear launch authority--could be considered the prelude to a nuclear attack.

(Decapitation.)

Oh, sorry, I misexplained the scenario. Soviet involvement in the assassination of John Paul II is assumed because as you said there is sufficient OTL evidence to make it a plausible possibility. But the assassination of RR would still just be deranged lone-gunman Hinckley getting lucky, nothing more. I'm not aware of any non-conspiracy theory evidence that it be would anything different IOTL.