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After my first assay regarding this topic, I have re-thinked some issues about the original chronology, that contained too much lucky warfare. I have re-oriented it to base it more upon dynastical, political and religious alliance, to the point of establishing a Teutonic Confederation first.

So now, the guidelines I'm considering are these:

- Conversion of the monastic state of the Teutonic Order into a dynastic kingdom (Teutonic Kingdom or Teutschland), which directly holds Prussia and Samogitia, with the Baltic duchies as vassals. The royal see is set in Marienburg (Malbork).

- After this, there is a Personal Union between Teutschland and Poland, in a similar way of OTL Poland-Lithuania (no war). Acquisition of some parts of Lithuania propria and some lands in Eastern Brandenburg (so, the King of Teutschland-Poland gets rights inside the HRE).

- A sister branch of the House that rules in Teutschland-Poland accedes to the Danish throne, anticipating the end of the Kalmar Union. So, Teutschland-Poland and Denmark become close allies, and Sweden their common enemy.

- Once Reformation begins, the King of Teutschland-Poland invites some Lutheran preachers to Marienburg and helps them in the establishment of a Reformed Church there (Marienburger Reformed Church = MRC). All the lands held by the Catholic Church pass to the Teustch-Polish state.

- The Kingdom of Denmark also creates its national Lutheran church. The Danish church recognizes the supremacy of the MRC on spiritual issues, even if they run its own hyerarchy, independent of Marienburg's one. Based on this, Denmark and Teutschland-Poland signs the Marienburg Alliance.

- As both Denmark (in Holstein) and Teutschland-Poland (in Brandenburg) hold lands in HRE, they intercede in favour of the new Lutheran Princes of the Empire. Some of them agree to join the Marienburg Alliance in seek of mutual protection.

- The enlargement of the Marienburg Alliance leads to increasing tension with the Emperor, the Papacy and the Catholic states. At some point, it will cause an anticipated version of the Thirty Years War. The need of the Lutheran states to stick together makes that the Marienburg Alliance will evolve into a loose confederation (Teutonic Confederation) of Lutheran states. The MRC increases its religious influence over the other Lutheran states, but without interfering in their policies.

- The former Teutonic Knights were first converted into a Teutsch-Polish military order and, after Reformation, they become Guards of the MRC. All members of the Marienburg Alliance (later Teutonic Confederation) can call them for military help.

- Once the Teutonic Confederation is stable, it can last until the 19th century, when the spread of nationalistic ideas could boost its transformation into a more unified entity (just like happened with OTL German Empire). But I will think about this part in the future.

Just for clarification:

* All the Reformation branches different to Lutheranism do not survive.

* The MRC has not any analogue to the Pope. The MRC is run by a Council of Intendents, and every state runs their own hyerarchies. The national Lutheran churches only recognize supremacy of the MRC in a spiritual level (to keep the Lutheran ideals) and in a shared sense of common faith, but MRC has not any way to interfere in the Princes policies, and lacks of temporal power.

* Sweden also adopts Lutheranism, but runs its own Church.

* The major success of Lutheranism leads to Austria, Hungary and Bavaria to hold more Lutheran population than in OTL, even if these states do not join the Marienburg Alliance, as their rulers stick to Catholicism.

* In this scenario, both Poland and Lithuania (the part that belongs to T-P) become Lutheran from the beginning.

I haven't decided yet which states will comprise the Teutonic Confederation by 1600.
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