WI: A Sum of All Fears Scenario Happened?

I watched the Tom Clancy Movie, The Sum of All Fears recently, and it got me thinking, what if an illicit nuke had been planted in a major American City (Baltimore in the movie) by a terrorist org? Imagine a terrorist org with the same motivation carrying out the attack IRL.

In the movie, the terrorists tried to point the blame towards the Russian Federation. The US would certainly be looking for those responsible, or a scapegoat. Would this spark a nuclear war between the two powers, or would cooler heads prevail (as they did the movie)?

Also, what would the death toll be for such an attack, as portrayed in the movie?

The scene in question

 
If you remember Clancys books one of the reasons it spiraled out of controll was that the president had a lover who also happend to be the national security advisor Liz Elliot who suffered a mental breakdown when Denver was nuked. She had the president not trust either Jack Ryans advice or the Russian president on the Red phone.

The Movie copied the scenario about a US president going MIA during a nuke attack from the Movie By Dawns early light
 
If you remember Clancys books one of the reasons it spiraled out of controll was that the president had a lover who also happend to be the national security advisor Liz Elliot who suffered a mental breakdown when Denver was nuked. She had the president not trust either Jack Ryans advice or the Russian president on the Red phone.

The Movie copied the scenario about a US president going MIA during a nuke attack from the Movie By Dawns early light

I actually haven't read the book, but are you saying that things would most likely not spiral out of control in a IRL scenario?
 
I preferred “True Lies”. I have read “The Sum of all Fears” but not seen the movie. A hotline between leaders is the best way to defuse such a situation, this was a lesson from the 1914 July Crisis. The world is very aware of a terrorist bomb scenario and would guard against such a ploy to provoke war.
 

Nick P

Donor
One nuclear detonation in a minor target city by a unconfirmed attacker, supposedly a nation who has hundreds of nukes but is not ramping up to destroy the rest of your country with all the weapons at their disposal. That should be a point for cooler heads to prevail and ask "What is really going on here?".

If you do get a clusterfuck where all the politicians and Generals decide on all-out global thermonuclear destruction because of one incident then I'd be very surprised. At best it would be a case of putting all worldwide forces on stand by at DefCon 2 and holding direct talks with the supposed attackers.
One issue from the book was that the hotline was not a phone line where you can pick up verbal clues from tone of voice but a fax or teletype machine, you'd think it would be a videolink by now.
 
One nuclear detonation in a minor target city by a unconfirmed attacker, supposedly a nation who has hundreds of nukes but is not ramping up to destroy the rest of your country with all the weapons at their disposal. That should be a point for cooler heads to prevail and ask "What is really going on here?".

If you do get a clusterfuck where all the politicians and Generals decide on all-out global thermonuclear destruction because of one incident then I'd be very surprised. At best it would be a case of putting all worldwide forces on stand by at DefCon 2 and holding direct talks with the supposed attackers.
One issue from the book was that the hotline was not a phone line where you can pick up verbal clues from tone of voice but a fax or teletype machine, you'd think it would be a videolink by now.

Well isn't the lack of a direct link of communication ONE reason that led to the real danger of the Cuban Missile Crisis?
 
I suppose any support for Neo-Nazis and other fringe far right types will probably disappear once it becomes clear they did it. Something like the Alt-right would be unthinkable in this ATL.
 
I suppose any support for Neo-Nazis and other fringe far right types will probably disappear once it becomes clear they did it. Something like the Alt-right would be unthinkable in this ATL.

If it was found out, of course the Alt-Right would be a dead movement overnight. Is such a plot, at least the terrorists goals, doomed from the start IRL?
 
In the book, part of the reason they immediately assume it was Russian was that the flare from the nuke up against the acres of aslphalt parking lot made the yield look much larger than it actually was, which made them rule out terrorism. Since 9/11 happened after the book was written, I suspect we’d be pretty quick to think it was terrorism. You’d also be able to take samples and figure out the origin of the bomb material, like they eventually do in the book and realize it’s US based.
 
In the book, part of the reason they immediately assume it was Russian was that the flare from the nuke up against the acres of aslphalt parking lot made the yield look much larger than it actually was, which made them rule out terrorism. Since 9/11 happened after the book was written, I suspect we’d be pretty quick to think it was terrorism. You’d also be able to take samples and figure out the origin of the bomb material, like they eventually do in the book and realize it’s US based.

I always figured such a scenario would most likely be a loose eastern European nuke after the collapse of the Soviet Union, not a US or Israeli one. Not arguing what happened in the book, but how I think it would most likely play out. I do imagine that the first instinct would be to label it terrorism. However, if it happened today, I would be concerned considering the saber rattling between the Russian Federation and the US now.
 
I always figured such a scenario would most likely be a loose eastern European nuke after the collapse of the Soviet Union, not a US or Israeli one. Not arguing what happened in the book, but how I think it would most likely play out. I do imagine that the first instinct would be to label it terrorism. However, if it happened today, I would be concerned considering the saber rattling between the Russian Federation and the US now.
Saber rattling is one thing.. This isn't 1952 or 62 with minimal contact

First off if there was a nuclear detonation in us soil there would be instant High alert

Second they would have to be 10000000 gazillion percent certain of origin. Then there would have to be a public discussion. We are not going to nuke Russia or any other nuclear power with out absolute proof it was sanctioned by said government. 1 nuke is not let slip the dogs of war on another nuclear power.

If it was well.. Don't worry about.it.. Your toast.

If it was a loose nuke.. Well that's anotger story ND there will be hell to pay, but Noone is nuking Moscow.

Hell I might even be surprised if we nuked the nation or group that committed the act.

Nukes are not a weapon used for giggles nor taken lightly.
 
I watched the Tom Clancy Movie, The Sum of All Fears recently, and it got me thinking, what if an illicit nuke had been planted in a major American City (Baltimore in the movie) by a terrorist org? Imagine a terrorist org with the same motivation carrying out the attack IRL.

In the movie, the terrorists tried to point the blame towards the Russian Federation. The US would certainly be looking for those responsible, or a scapegoat. Would this spark a nuclear war between the two powers, or would cooler heads prevail (as they did the movie)?

Also, what would the death toll be for such an attack, as portrayed in the movie?

The scene in question


I would say that such an attack even a nuke attack on one of our city's as seen in the movie would put us at defcon-2. We would start talks with whomever we suspected to be responsible. But let's say it was the Russians what would be gained in using just one nuke. So in the end we would tighten our national security. But an all out war in my view isn't likely.
 
I always figured such a scenario would most likely be a loose eastern European nuke after the collapse of the Soviet Union, not a US or Israeli one. Not arguing what happened in the book, but how I think it would most likely play out. I do imagine that the first instinct would be to label it terrorism. However, if it happened today, I would be concerned considering the saber rattling between the Russian Federation and the US now.

As others have said, the book does a far better job explaining how what would otherwise seem a clear-cut case of nuclear terrorism becomes a major incident that nearly turns into WW3. As others have said, a lot of it has to do with incompetent officials on both sides essentially bungling things until they spiral out of control.

In the book, the nuke is Israeli largely to explain how the villains got it - rather than the cartoonish neo-Nazi caricatures seen in the film, they are an Islamic fundamentalist faction of the PFLP based in Syria. Incensed by a new Israeli-Palestinian peace plan, they come into possession of the lost Israeli nuke from a Druze farmer who found it (as in the film, it came loose after the Israeli A-4 carrying it was shot down in 1973, landing away from the wreckage and becoming buried in the desert). They ally up with some old Red Army Faction friends from East Germany, themselves angered by the Soviet "abandonment" of Eastern European communism, as well as a radical Native American nationalist who helps them smuggle it into the US (that last one was stretching it a bit IMO).

The US actually does assume that it's a lost Russian nuke at first. The book is set ca. 1990 - 1991, as the USSR is withdrawing from Eastern Europe and clearly on it’s last legs itself (it was actually published just days before the August Coup). US intelligence hears rumors that Soviet forces lost track of a few tactical warheads in the process of withdrawing from East Berlin. Meanwhile, fed faulty intelligence by the Soviet Vice President (a CIA asset who, strangely enough, is written as a Yeltsin expy and is using his position in an attempt to seize power for himself) the US comes to believe that hardliners in the KGB and the Red Army are plotting to overthrow not-Gorbachev and bring back the bad old days.

The reason the nuke is assumed to be Soviet is largely due to National Security Advisor Liz Elliot's influence on the President (she is his lover as well as his advisor), as well as further terrorist machinations (the East Germans are able to set off a firefight between US and Soviet troops in Berlin). Knowing about the rumors of lost Soviet nukes and coup plots in the Kremlin, she assumes that the Russian hardliners have nuked Denver in an attempt to distract the US so that they will be unable to interfere when the hardliners seize power in the USSR. Despite this making very little sense (this is lampshaded by Ryan, who points out just how little sense would make for Soviet hardliners to risk nuclear war with the USA while they are already going to have their hands full trying to overthrow the moderate government), the President trusts Elliot and distrusts Ryan thanks in part to personal animosity between the two men and Elliot's previous machinations to discredit Ryan, who she saw as a rival.

Really, I recommend reading the book. It’s not quite Clancy’s best (there are a lot of subplots - all are tied together in the end, but a good deal of it seems unnecessary, like following a redwood tree as it is transported to Japan so that it can fall off a boat and cripple a US submarine at a critical moment, or Liz Elliot trying to get Ryan fired by spreading rumors of an affair leading to a near catfight between Elliot and Ryan's wife), but it's far better than the film. While some of the changes made in the film can be excused (having to update the setting to address the collapse of the USSR and developments in post-Soviet Russia), many more are simply ridiculous. The villains were changed from Islamist terrorists to neo Nazis explicitly as a concession to CAIR, for instance.
 
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As others have said, the book does a far better job explaining how what would otherwise seem a clear-cut case of nuclear terrorism becomes a major incident that nearly turns into WW3. As others have said, a lot of it has to do with incompetent officials on both sides essentially bungling things until they spiral out of control.

In the book, the nuke is Israeli largely to explain how the villains got it - rather than the cartoonish neo-Nazi caricatures seen in the film, they are an Islamic fundamentalist faction of the PFLP based in Syria. Incensed by a new Israeli-Palestinian peace plan, they come into possession of the lost Israeli nuke from a Druze farmer who found it (as in the film, it came loose after the Israeli A-4 carrying it was shot down in 1973, landing away from the wreckage and becoming buried in the desert). They ally up with some old Red Army Faction friends from East Germany, themselves angered by the Soviet "abandonment" of Eastern European communism, as well as a radical Native American nationalist who helps them smuggle it into the US (that last one was stretching it a bit IMO).

The US actually does assume that it's a lost Russian nuke at first. The book is set ca. 1990 - 1991, as the USSR is withdrawing from Eastern Europe and clearly on it’s last legs itself (it was actually published just days before the August Coup). US intelligence hears rumors that Soviet forces lost track of a few tactical warheads in the process of withdrawing from East Berlin. Meanwhile, fed faulty intelligence by the Soviet Vice President (a CIA asset who, strangely enough, is written as a Yeltsin expy and is using his position in an attempt to seize power for himself) the US comes to believe that hardliners in the KGB and the Red Army are plotting to overthrow not-Gorbachev and bring back the bad old days.

The reason the nuke is assumed to be Soviet is largely due to National Security Advisor Liz Elliot's influence on the President (she is his lover as well as his advisor), as well as further terrorist machinations (the East Germans are able to set off a firefight between US and Soviet troops in Berlin). Knowing about the rumors of lost Soviet nukes and coup plots in the Kremlin, she assumes that the Russian hardliners have nuked Denver in an attempt to distract the US so that they will be unable to interfere when the hardliners seize power in the USSR. Despite this making very little sense (this is lampshaded by Ryan, who points out just how little sense would make for Soviet hardliners to risk nuclear war with the USA while they are already going to have their hands full trying to overthrow the moderate government), the President trusts Elliot and distrusts Ryan thanks in part to personal animosity between the two men and Elliot's previous machinations to discredit Ryan, who she saw as a rival.

Really, I recommend reading the book. It’s not quite Clancy’s best (there are a lot of subplots - all are tied together in the end, but a good deal of it seems unnecessary, like following a redwood tree as it is transported to Japan so that it can fall off a boat and cripple a US submarine at a critical moment, or Liz Elliot trying to get Ryan fired by spreading rumors of an affair leading to a near catfight between Elliot and Ryan's wife), but it's far better than the film. While some of the changes made in the film can be excused (having to update the setting to address the collapse of the USSR and developments in post-Soviet Russia), many more are simply ridiculous. The villains were changed from Islamist terrorists to neo Nazis explicitly as a concession to CAIR, for instance.

I'm sorry, but I laughed a little at the redwood tree subplot you described. Talk about the worst luck ever.

If it was an Al-Qaeda type terror org, I would imagine the response would dwarf the OTL response to 9/11.
 
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