WI: A successful Hungary 1956 revolution

Let’s say somehow the revolution is successful and Hungary is free of communism. What would happen? Would the other Eastern European countries revolt and overthrow earlier? How does this affect the Cold War? What are the ramifications for all involved?
 
Even in a "Hungarian Revolution is sucessful" scenario, this success would be short lived. Why, it's because an anti-Soviet, anti-communist democratic, free Hungary post-revolution would still be surrounded by the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact and they wouldn't be happy over one of their members leaving and turning against them so the Soviets and their allies would likely lead a Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia 1968-style occupation to get rid of Hungary's current government. While Western governments such as the United States and the NATO countries would praise the Hungarians for revolting against communism and the Soviet Union they wouldn't want to provoke any conflict with the Eastern Bloc out of fear of causing World War III to occur. Honestly in the end no matter how successful Hungary's revolution would be there's no way it suddenly lead to other Eastern Bloc nations to revolt because of the powerful Soviet troops stationed and it would lead to even more intense crackdown on any Eastern European communist countries seeking to rebel as well as the Soviets enforcing a harsher policy on any and all anti communist dissidents living in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, East Germany, and Bulgaria.
 
Even in a "Hungarian Revolution is sucessful" scenario, this success would be short lived. Why, it's because an anti-Soviet, anti-communist democratic, free Hungary post-revolution would still be surrounded by the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact and they wouldn't be happy over one of their members leaving and turning against them so the Soviets and their allies would likely lead a Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia 1968-style occupation to get rid of Hungary's current government. While Western governments such as the United States and the NATO countries would praise the Hungarians for revolting against communism and the Soviet Union they wouldn't want to provoke any conflict with the Eastern Bloc out of fear of causing World War III to occur. Honestly in the end no matter how successful Hungary's revolution would be there's no way it suddenly lead to other Eastern Bloc nations to revolt because of the powerful Soviet troops stationed and it would lead to even more intense crackdown on any Eastern European communist countries seeking to rebel as well as the Soviets enforcing a harsher policy on any and all anti communist dissidents living in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, East Germany, and Bulgaria.

Perhaps. But would there be any way for it to work in the favor of democracy? Perhaps other countries get involved maybe.
 
Honestly, the most likely (and likely best-case) scenario is Hungary gets an Austrian-style Neutrality treaty and the country effectively becomes a second Austria in the Cold War, albeit a rather left-leaning one.

Otherwise, I really don't see how this could affect the Cold War in general. Hungary really wasn't geostrategically important.
 
You'd get a finland-style Hungary if it was pulled off, with it being an obvious template for the Czechs in '68 or Poland in '81.
 
Let’s say somehow the revolution is successful and Hungary is free of communism.

We would have conclusive evidence of alien space bats. On November 3 the party status was:

[Old parties]
Communists (Nagy): socialism/communism, parliament and councils
Social democrats (exile): socialism/communism, parliament and councils
Social democrats (shop floor / workers council dominant bloc): socialism, councils and parliament
Small holders (internal leadership / geographic councils): socialism, parliament and councils
Peasants (internal leadership / geographic councils): socialism, parliament and councils

Communists (Rakosi/Gero): soviet-style economics, single list party dominance

[New parties / forces]
Students: communism and councils
Communists (Ultraleft): communism and councils
Writers Association (& other professional councils): communism and councils
Industrial workplace councils: communism and councils
Geographic councils: socialism, parliament and councils

Industrial Budapest Youth (armed force): socialism/communism and councils



There is no way a successful revolution in Hungary in 1956 is going to reverse the socialisation of production. It was a core demand of all major revolutionary forces to maintain the social economy, and the leading forces demanded communisation under workers control.


What would happen? Would the other Eastern European countries revolt and overthrow earlier?

There is a remote possibility of revolution in Poland, Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union in favour of councilism.

…Honestly in the end no matter how successful Hungary's revolution would be there's no way it suddenly lead to other Eastern Bloc nations to revolt because of the powerful Soviet troops stationed and it would lead to even more intense crackdown on any Eastern European communist countries seeking to rebel as well as the Soviets enforcing a harsher policy on any and all anti communist dissidents living in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Romania, East Germany, and Bulgaria.

You do realise how Gomułka turned the nascent Polish revolution of 1956 into a coup d'etat? He ordered the Polish army to surround Soviet occupation forces.

Perhaps. But would there be any way for it to work in the favor of democracy?

It depends on what you mean by democracy. If we discount the Rakosists all major social forces supported "democracy," of one sort or another. Parliamentary with lists restricted to pro-social property parties, geographic councils, workplace councils. The major question is parliament or councils.

Perhaps other countries get involved maybe.

Well the largest "natural" extent is the PC following Mikoyan's report in favour before the decision for November 3, resulting in a Dubcekesque guided councilist revolution in the Soviet Union, Poland, Hungary and probably Yugoslavia as a minimum, with "fraternal parties" following through soft power coercion.

Honestly, the most likely (and likely best-case) scenario is Hungary gets an Austrian-style Neutrality treaty and the country effectively becomes a second Austria in the Cold War, albeit a rather left-leaning one.

Otherwise, I really don't see how this could affect the Cold War in general. Hungary really wasn't geostrategically important.

Well, it would break the PCF, PCI, CPGB, CPUSA for starters. It'd force the Poles back into crisis between party and class. It'd force the Mikoyan/Nagy type line on socialist humanism into a crisis with the anti-party bloc line.


yours,
Sam R.
 
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