WI: A successful flight to Vienna

On the night of June 20, 1791, King Louis XVI and his family made an escape attempt, hoping to flee from Paris to Vienna. For the plan to work all they needed to do was make it to Hapsburg controlled territory. The plan failed when they decided to stop for the night and were caught.

What I am wondering is how might this effect the course of the revolution? I don't think anyone, Napoleon or otherwise, could proclaim themselves emperor with the former monarch still alive. Part of the plan was for there to be a counter revolution led by Louis XVI with help from Austria. Would this part of the plan work had the previous part worked?
 
On the night of June 20, 1791, King Louis XVI and his family made an escape attempt, hoping to flee from Paris to Vienna. For the plan to work all they needed to do was make it to Hapsburg controlled territory. The plan failed when they decided to stop for the night and were caught.

What I am wondering is how might this effect the course of the revolution? I don't think anyone, Napoleon or otherwise, could proclaim themselves emperor with the former monarch still alive. Part of the plan was for there to be a counter revolution led by Louis XVI with help from Austria. Would this part of the plan work had the previous part worked?

I think that the revolutionaries would be able to defeat the Austrians though it would certainly change the French Revolutionary Wars.
 
On the night of June 20, 1791, King Louis XVI and his family made an escape attempt, hoping to flee from Paris to Vienna. For the plan to work all they needed to do was make it to Hapsburg controlled territory. The plan failed when they decided to stop for the night and were caught.

What I am wondering is how might this effect the course of the revolution? I don't think anyone, Napoleon or otherwise, could proclaim themselves emperor with the former monarch still alive. Part of the plan was for there to be a counter revolution led by Louis XVI with help from Austria. Would this part of the plan work had the previous part worked?

The Royal Family was NOT trying to flee to Vienna or Brussels or any Habsburg controlled territory. They were trying to flee to the Royalist citadel at Montmédy. The King was afraid that if he left France the Revolutionaries would say that he abdicated and either declare a republic or proclaim Philippe d'Orleans King.

If the King managed to arrive at Montmédy, then no doubt he would carry out his plan and organize a counter-revolution. Depending on the loyalty of the provinces and possible aid from Foreign nations the Revolutionaries in Paris will be crushed or France will fall into Civil war.
 
I think that the revolutionaries would be able to defeat the Austrians though it would certainly change the French Revolutionary Wars.

No. France got its ass kicked in the early revolutionary wars. If the Royal family is alive and well then the Austro-Prussian invasion is given a sense of legitimacy. Not to mention Louis XVI could bring over some of the army, thus making the revolutionaries position much worse.
 
If the King managed to arrive at Montmédy, then no doubt he would carry out his plan and organize a counter-revolution. Depending on the loyalty of the provinces and possible aid from Foreign nations the Revolutionaries in Paris will be crushed or France will fall into Civil war.

How much support do you think could be mustered for a counter revolution?
 
How much support do you think could be mustered for a counter revolution?

IDK in France itself. I remember reading that the actions of Paris had become more and more unpopular as the Revolution went on and I know for a fact that their was several sizable émigré armies not to mention possible support from Austria and Prussia I think a sizable amount of support could be raised. Then there's the fact that when compared to the rest of Europe, France's revolutionary armies sucked. All in all a successful royal flight could be a death blow to the revolution.
 
No. France got its ass kicked in the early revolutionary wars. If the Royal family is alive and well then the Austro-Prussian invasion is given a sense of legitimacy. Not to mention Louis XVI could bring over some of the army, thus making the revolutionaries position much worse.

How's that?? Sure, there were some difficult moments in 1792-93, but in general the French handled themselves pretty damn well of the war front, given the domestic situation.

As to the Royal family giving legitimacy to the invasion, I'm pretty sure the reverse would have happened. How easy would it have been to utterly brand him as a puppet to the whims of the Hapsburgs, the family of l'autrichienne, Mme Déficit? Most of the pro-royalists rebellions occured in 1793 after the regicide and martyrdom of Louis XVI. Alive and well and at the head of an attacking host, he will be proving the revolutionaries right and aiding their cause.
 
How's that?? Sure, there were some difficult moments in 1792-93, but in general the French handled themselves pretty damn well of the war front, given the domestic situation.

As to the Royal family giving legitimacy to the invasion, I'm pretty sure the reverse would have happened. How easy would it have been to utterly brand him as a puppet to the whims of the Hapsburgs, the family of l'autrichienne, Mme Déficit? Most of the pro-royalists rebellions occured in 1793 after the regicide and martyrdom of Louis XVI. Alive and well and at the head of an attacking host, he will be proving the revolutionaries right and aiding their cause.

Not really look at their so called victory's in the early war. Sure the French managed to get the Prussians to withdraw but they only did that because the judged the campaign too expensive to maintain for the time being. It wasn't that France had this great and powerful army.

As for legitimacy, well yes it would be a propaganda coup for Paris but France is not just the city of Paris:rolleyes:. Like I said earlier, the actions taken by Paris had become fairly unpopular in the provinces. Look at the Vendee for instance. And yes a lot of pro-royalist revolts happened after Louis execution but that's no guarantee the same revolts wouldn't occur with Louis XVI alive and well.

Edit: as for the military support Louis XVI could muster, look at the Catholic and Royal Army in Western France and the Armée des Émigrés raced outside of France. The Catholic and Royal Army had over 80,000 soldiers at its height and the various Armée des Émigrés, no doubt more professional, could field at least 30,000. And this is without the King surviving. With Louis XVI and the Dauphin alive who know how many soldiers could be raised, and how many professional ones could defect from the French army.
 
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Well, if the counter revolution did come to fruition, how would the rest of the revolution play out?

If the Counter-revolution is successful then I would guess there would be a bloody reprisal against the Revolutionary leadership. Hell the Duc d'Orleans might be banished or even executed, depending on who is influencing the King. That being said, even if the Revolution is crushed you can only turn back the clock so much. Louis would have to grant some concessions. Not to mention the debt that is still looming in France, though I think the revolutionaries might have taken care of that. I can see Louis XVI granting something similar to OTL's 1814 charter. That should be enough to satisfy the moderates.
 
If the Counter-revolution is successful then I would guess there would be a bloody reprisal against the Revolutionary leadership. Hell the Duc d'Orleans might be banished or even executed, depending on who is influencing the King. That being said, even if the Revolution is crushed you can only turn back the clock so much. Louis would have to grant some concessions. Not to mention the debt that is still looming in France, though I think the revolutionaries might have taken care of that. I can see Louis XVI granting something similar to OTL's 1814 charter. That should be enough to satisfy the moderates.

What kind of time table are we talking for crushing the revolution? Within a year, or longer?
 
What kind of time table are we talking for crushing the revolution? Within a year, or longer?

Well it depends. The armee des emigres could field an upwards of 35000 men and the Catholic and Royal army, the name of the counterrevolutionary forces in France during the war of the Ventee had in total 80,000. The Ventee army was no doubt mainly peasant raised with some professional soldiers while the Armée des Émigrés was probably more professional, made of exiled soldiers, mercenaries and donated soldiers from the German States, Sardinia-Piedmont and Austria. The Revolutionary army, on the other hand, was untrained and undisciplined. Sure the Revolutionaries could no doubt field more men threw conscription, but in 1791 didn't stand much of a chance. Not to mention the possibility that more of France might revolt in favor of the King. I would say a year tops. Really all the counter-revolutionaries had to do was capture Paris. After that it would become a mop up operation, with scattered revolutionaries continuing the fight and would be put down by the French armies later. Some of the lead Revolutionaries might flee the country, perhaps for the UK or even America. But all in all I imagine if the Emigres were fast enough they could defeat the revolutionaries before they could get a chance to reorganize themselves into a credible fighting force.
 
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