WI: A Soviet-aligned independent Communist Tibet

So, I've been considering potential ATLs that involve more Soviet involvement in the Chinese civil war, including the Soviets mounting a decisive invasion of Sinkiang and setting up a puppet state there. That led me to think about the rather implausible but fun idea of the Soviets continuing on into Tibet and turning THAT into a puppet state also. ("Tibet" in this case including OTL's Tibet Autonomous Region and Qinghai Province, since any Soviet invasion to take the TAR would have to go through Qinghai, whether the Tibetan areas of Sichuan, Yunnan and Gansu province are included I'll leave up to people's imaginations.)

What do people think the effects would be?

My bet is that it would not be good for the Soviets.

fasquardon
 
I think it goes without saying that if the PRC could take Tibet in 1950, then the Soviets could do so a few years earlier, given their massive superiority in military power vis-a-vis the ChiComs.

The establishment of a Tibetan puppet state would result in an extremely top-heavy regime, perhaps even more so than in Afghanistan decades later. I imagine there would have been extremely few Tibetan Communists to lead such a regime, and would largely be composed of extreme anti-Lamaist of any shade.

There would be a massive shake-up in Tibetan society, akin to the Cultural Revolution writ small. Although this wasn't usually the Soviets' (post-Stalin) style, it would be impossible to maintain their authority in Tibet without breaking the backs of the Lamas and the monasteries (look at 1920s Mongolia for a good parallel to this). This goes double since its during the period of High Stalinism.

The effects would include enraging whoever is in power in China even more than invading Sinkiang would, pushing that country firmly into the pro-American camp regardless of ideology, as well as potentially threatening India and turning a Soviet-leaning nation towards the West.

Basically, the biggest problem with this scenario isn't whether they could do it or not, but rather why they would do it. Whilst I could see annexation of Sinkiang (like Tuva IOTL), it is difficult to justify the establishment of a Greater Tibet, of extremely limited strategic value, which would require a disproportionate effort to take and keep, as well as alienating potential allies who are far more powerful. Stalin was ruthless, not stupid.
 
Basically, the biggest problem with this scenario isn't whether they could do it or not, but rather why they would do it. Whilst I could see annexation of Sinkiang (like Tuva IOTL), it is difficult to justify the establishment of a Greater Tibet, of extremely limited strategic value, which would require a disproportionate effort to take and keep, as well as alienating potential allies who are far more powerful. Stalin was ruthless, not stupid.

Agreed. The most likely way I can see a blunder like this being made is for something like Afghanistan to happen, where the Soviets are convinced that if they don't go in, some sort of hostile regime will take power there and threaten the Soviet Union from Tibet.

Even that would take a serious beating from an idiot ball. Tibet is not a good place to launch an invasion from and the most likely countries to exert influence on Tibet are China and India, both of which aren't exactly threats to the USSR at that point.

Maybe the only way to make this realistic would have to involve a continued British Raj in India and a very hostile British regime. Maybe some sort of British quasi-fascist regime? There the Soviets might go into Tibet both to keep the British out as well as open supply routes to Indian nationalist rebels.

Still, it is interesting to think about what might happen to Tibet if nationalism is not so firmly linked to the monasteries and instead has an alternate secular communist rallying point as well (meaning the anti-monastic nationalists continue to develop, unlike OTL). It's also interesting thinking about what China might look like without Sinkiang and Tibet and how Indo-Soviet relations would play out with a shared border between India and a Soviet puppet (mostly, I think reduced tensions with China would be the main upshot - I can't say I see the Soviets having any interest in supporting any claims Tibet would make on India).

fasquardon
 
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