WI A South Americn War

WI the recent diplomatic row between Ecuador, Colombia, and Venezuela actually flared up into a war? What would the war be like, how long would it last, how would it affect relations in the region for years to come?

As an aside, I'm aware how unlikely war between these three countries is, due to their close trade routes and economic participation. However, for the sake of the POD...
 
Been done but it would be a short war as both countries are within range of CONUS AFB's and Columbia is a major US ally.And you can say the DoD is over strecthed but Air power is the one thing that isn't currently,So say a week or 2 before the Venezuelan's & Ecuadorian's are combat non-effective.

Even with the 1 SDRN of Flankers the VAF lasts maybe 10 minutes into the war. After that it's prety much over with TacAir hitting any troop concentrations
and C3I sites.Look any country stupid enough to think with a GOP POTUS that attacking any US ally is a smart move deserves to have a visit from reality in the shape of a 1000lb JDAM
 

CalBear

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Been done but it would be a short war as both countries are within range of CONUS AFB's and Columbia is a major US ally.And you can say the DoD is over strecthed but Air power is the one thing that isn't currently,So say a week or 2 before the Venezuelan's & Ecuadorian's are combat non-effective.

Even with the 1 SDRN of Flankers the VAF lasts maybe 10 minutes into the war. After that it's prety much over with TacAir hitting any troop concentrations
and C3I sites.Look any country stupid enough to think with a GOP POTUS that attacking any US ally is a smart move deserves to have a visit from reality in the shape of a 1000lb JDAM

Very much agree. The Venezuelan arms purchases look impressive as all hell.*and the SU-30's are far & away the class of South America, but the quality of the troops operating the weapons is an open question. Chavez doesn't seem to know how to actually build a coherent force (Columbia, on the other hand, has taken American doctrine to heart regarding interoperability), but he has enough hardware that the U.S. wouldn't simply let Columbia fight alone.

Figure heavy U.S. Tac Air and some naval back-up with the ground and most close air support after the Flankers have beed dealt with being handled by Columbia. Makes the U.S. look a little less like it is "wog-bashing" that way.

Also expect Chavez to wind up seriously dead.
 
Look any country stupid enough to think with a GOP POTUS that attacking any US ally is a smart move deserves to have a visit from reality in the shape of a 1000lb JDAM

I think any POTUS of either party, would react the same way. I just don't see any US ADMIN, no matter how liberal, isolationist, nativism, green, et. al. that would sit aside and let Colombia go down (or be beat up) to the little wantabe in the red shirt... especially considering how far they've come in the last 16 years.

I'd think the only difference would be the tone of the one (and only one) phone call,

"I thing you need to withdraw, and rethink ..." or "I think you need to ask your Air Force how many if their radars, computers, power grid are still working..." or my favorite, " I just went on tv and told the world/nation, this will not stand, should we talk after you stand down, or let my Air Force handle this..."
 
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One of the operations almost certainly would be a B-2 dropping a JDAM on wherever Chavez lives. They'd be lucky if there was enough to identify him.

The Flankers are good, but against F-22s (which is what I would expect the US to send, taking no chances here) it's still seriously dead. Venezuela is getting better militarily, but Colombia is a US ally and the US has lots of reasons to dislike Chavez. So, any war he starts is gonna rapidly wind up with a Colombian win and Chavez in the ground.
 
The Flankers are good, but against F-22s (which is what I would expect the US to send, taking no chances here) .

Yes they are (have had a chance to climb around one) BUT they require a VERY, VERY good pilot to get preformance out of them. Really they're the 1st "Western" style Soviet fighter, i.e. built for skilled, professional, figher jocks, NOT, built so a skilled, professional jock can get the most while the majority of "I joined the Red Air Force to avoid subs or the PBI" get by, and maybe survive awhile.

Oh. and I suspect finding him would be an issue, I suspect he'd give the execute order by phone from some nice safe (prehaps an island off Key West) place, and stay there till "victory" or ceasefire. He's reported to be quite pro-survival (or lacking of of something, depends on your view) when it comes to his person.
 
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