WI a really huge Timurid empire? An Islamic Sibera???

I was reading a fragment of Toynbee’s Study of History, in which the author says that, had Timur focused on conquering the Eurasian steppe instead of raiding Iran, Turkey and Hindustan, (all members of his own “Iranic civilization”) by “today” (=1938) we might have had a huge empire with an extension similar to that of the (former) USSR, but whose “core” would have been Samarkand instead of Moscu.

The author says that, of all those peoples who were in conditions of submitting the Eurasian Nomads by 1400 (the Muscovites, the Lithuanians, the Cossacks and the Transoxanians), the Transoxanians were those in the best position in order to achieve this. But Timur wasted his life fighting against states which were parts of his own “civilization”, instead of focusing on “expanding” this civilization (the “Iranic” branch of the Islamic civilization) in every direction (North, East and West).

As Timur failed, when the Eurasian nomads were finaly “submitted” in the XVIII century, they weren’t beaten by any Islamic state, but by Russia (an Orthodox Christian one) and by Manchu China.

So, what if Timur had focused on conquering the Eurasian steppe, from Mongolia to Ukraine? Could he have formed an empire that could have survived after he had died? What would have happened with this empire later? Could he have survived against Modern European armies, if technological progress in Europe follows the path it did IOTL? Could this empire have survived to the present day? Thoughts?
 
the steppes are not a good place to build an empire... Timur is going to have a hell of a time keeping it together, with long travel times and low communication between the various parts, it's going to just make it harder. my bet is that after his death Timur's sons (no idea if he had any) or generals, or SOME people in his empire are going to divide it up between themselves...
 

Rockingham

Banned
This is doable if he conquers Muscovy. So we could essentially see a Islamic Persiophone Russia(how entrenched was Christianity at this point in Russia?), rather then a Orthodox Hellenophone Russia. Presume, at his death its stretches from the Ukraine and Crimea(vassal), up but not including a port on the Baltic sea, through all of Central Asia. In Siberia it should extend perhaps almost to Lake Baykal.

The other alternative is a conqest of China, but that would in all likelihood result in a situation similar to the Manch conqest....simply, the Persian culture dies after a generation or two.

A third alternative is actually setting up a lasting dynasty, Ala the Mughal empire, in India, and then expanding his culture from their.

The difficulty is having the empire survive after his death. Assuming he has the wisdom to move his capital somewhere near the old Russian core, and create an empire stable enough to last after hsi death, I would predict that he empire be divided: The Russian corelands remaining united, with significant Siberian and North Kazakh territory, Crimea and other vassals drifting out of Timurid dynasty control, while Central Asia forms a second empire, with its capital at Samrkand, and essentially replicating Timurs OTL conquests.

One immediate effect I see is in the Islamic world.... the Ottomans are not devestated by Timur, and so will unite Timur earlier, and in all likelihood take Southern Italy as well. Granada still existed at this point..... so an Islamic golden age isn't out of the question. As for the Abbasid Caliphate, its fall is likely sooner or later, unless it comes under the Ottoman umbrella.

In the Christian world....either a more powerful, threatening, and Islamic Russia, along with a more powerful Ottoman Empire, result in a more Islamophobic and backward Europe- or Persiophone "Russia" allows the Persian language and culture to spread through Europe, and somethin of a Persian cultural golden age occurs- with Persian serving the same purpose in Russia as in the OE, and being almost as well known in educated circles as Latin throughout Christan Europe. I would consider the former more likely.
 
The other alternative is a conqest of China, but that would in all likelihood result in a situation similar to the Manch conqest....simply, the Persian culture dies after a generation or two.

A third alternative is actually setting up a lasting dynasty, Ala the Mughal empire, in India, and then expanding his culture from their.

I don't think that the Chinese option is viable, considering that Ming China was up and rising at the time. To see an example of their foreign policy at this time, note that the year that Tamerlaine died, 1405, was also the year that Zheng He first set sail with the Treasure Ships. As for India, Tamberlaine had trashed the Sultanate of Delhi, so I guess it would be feasible for him to keep expanding onto the Indian sub-continent. I'm not sure that a presence in India would help the Timurid's any better though.

One immediate effect I see is in the Islamic world.... the Ottomans are not devestated by Timur, and so will unite Timur earlier, and in all likelihood take Southern Italy as well. Granada still existed at this point..... so an Islamic golden age isn't out of the question. As for the Abbasid Caliphate, its fall is likely sooner or later, unless it comes under the Ottoman umbrella.

The Abbasid's were long gone — the Mongols trashed Baghdad a long while before the Timurid Empire was formed. Oh, and I don't really think the Ottomans were too concerned with Italy; an advance into the Balkans and against Hungary would be first, though there is nothing to show that the Ottomans were repulsed by the idea of taking the peninsula.

In the Christian world....either a more powerful, threatening, and Islamic Russia, along with a more powerful Ottoman Empire, result in a more Islamophobic and backward Europe- or Persiophone "Russia" allows the Persian language and culture to spread through Europe, and somethin of a Persian cultural golden age occurs- with Persian serving the same purpose in Russia as in the OE, and being almost as well known in educated circles as Latin throughout Christan Europe. I would consider the former more likely.

Europe was pretty Islamophobic in OTL, with the Muslim invasions back during the time of Charles Martel. And they were still pretty backwards in OTL as well, but I don't understand how increased pressure by "infidel" forces would prompt Europe to regress in terms of development.
 

Rockingham

Banned
-I don't think that the Chinese option is viable, considering that Ming China was up and rising at the time. To see an example of their foreign policy at this time, note that the year that Tamerlaine died, 1405, was also the year that Zheng He first set sail with the Treasure Ships. As for India, Tamberlaine had trashed the Sultanate of Delhi, so I guess it would be feasible for him to keep expanding onto the Indian sub-continent. I'm not sure that a presence in India would help the Timurid's any better though.



-The Abbasid's were long gone — the Mongols trashed Baghdad a long while before the Timurid Empire was formed. Oh, and I don't really think the Ottomans were too concerned with Italy; an advance into the Balkans and against Hungary would be first, though there is nothing to show that the Ottomans were repulsed by the idea of taking the peninsula.



-Europe was pretty Islamophobic in OTL, with the Muslim invasions back during the time of Charles Martel. And they were still pretty backwards in OTL as well, but I don't understand how increased pressure by "infidel" forces would prompt Europe to regress in terms of development.

In regards to China and the Abbasids....my mistake:eek:... although China needn't fall to Timur, as opposed to a descendant.

Mehmed launched a campaign into Italy OTL, which failed to achieve much due to his unfortunate demise during the campaign. As for the value...the Ottomans claimed the title of "Sultan of Rum(Rome)", thu actually holding Rome would be a matter of legitimacy if nothing else.

At first, it wouldn't have much effect. Though it may weaken Enlightenment ideas and secularism down the line, by making European philosophy more religiously charged. If the trend continues, we may see a switching of the positions in Islam and Christianity, with Christianity tending to be more regressive in general and Islam more progressive in general ,although that is making a lot of assumptions.
 
What about Timur's army? I'm not sure about this at all, but would it follow him into regions where there would be less plunder to gain, less anyway than in the middle east?

But let's say I'm wrong about that, wouldn't the Volga steppes be an interesting long term conquest for the Timurids? It sounds like an interesting trade route, as well as a great logistical solution to building a large empire. Maybe Timur's empire can be maintained on caravan trade connecting most of Euro-Asia.
 
Well, I had plans for a TL where Timur conquered all of India, was pushed out by China, and then went north to the steppe.
 
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