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I recall reading that when Belisarius first arrived in Italy, his early successes came so fast that the king of the Ostrogoths, Theodahad, tried to negotiate, first offering Sicily, then, according to Procopius, who I know is not the most reliable source, offering all or most of Italy.

This fell through because of a remarkable Gothic success in Dalmatia, against Mundus, who was leading the other prong of the Roman attack against the Goths. Well, that could be butterflied, couldn't it?

Let's consider this scenario: Mundus wins in Dalmatia, and enters northern Italy successfully, just as Belisarius marches up from the south. King Theodahad throws himself in the arms of the Empire, thinking that is the only way he can keep some semblance of power in Italy - we know from OTL that the Goths were more than willing to get rid of him. Belisarius and Mundus negotiate a peace treaty that cedes to the Romans Dalmatia and most of Italy up to the Po river, leaving the Goths with about half of the Po Valley.

By the end of 536 most of Italy is in Justinian's hands, with its infrastructure more or less intact; the Empire can recruit from the Goths that decided not to move to the reduced Gothic kingdom in the Norths, because of the property they own, family connections and whatnot; Mundus is granted a triumph in Constantinopolis and Belisarius one in Rome, to reduce envy and disappointment.

I reckon that there will be resistance in the Roman part of Italy, with at least a few revolts, and that Theodahad would be killed after the peace. The new king, who might even be Vitiges or Totila, might be willing to give another go at fighting when the Romans get entangled with Persia.

Venice might be butterflied, but Justinian's Plague probably won't, and the Lombards are on their way.

What could happen afterwards?
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