WI: A quick conclusion to Belisarius' campaign in Italy

I recall reading that when Belisarius first arrived in Italy, his early successes came so fast that the king of the Ostrogoths, Theodahad, tried to negotiate, first offering Sicily, then, according to Procopius, who I know is not the most reliable source, offering all or most of Italy.

This fell through because of a remarkable Gothic success in Dalmatia, against Mundus, who was leading the other prong of the Roman attack against the Goths. Well, that could be butterflied, couldn't it?

Let's consider this scenario: Mundus wins in Dalmatia, and enters northern Italy successfully, just as Belisarius marches up from the south. King Theodahad throws himself in the arms of the Empire, thinking that is the only way he can keep some semblance of power in Italy - we know from OTL that the Goths were more than willing to get rid of him. Belisarius and Mundus negotiate a peace treaty that cedes to the Romans Dalmatia and most of Italy up to the Po river, leaving the Goths with about half of the Po Valley.

By the end of 536 most of Italy is in Justinian's hands, with its infrastructure more or less intact; the Empire can recruit from the Goths that decided not to move to the reduced Gothic kingdom in the Norths, because of the property they own, family connections and whatnot; Mundus is granted a triumph in Constantinopolis and Belisarius one in Rome, to reduce envy and disappointment.

I reckon that there will be resistance in the Roman part of Italy, with at least a few revolts, and that Theodahad would be killed after the peace. The new king, who might even be Vitiges or Totila, might be willing to give another go at fighting when the Romans get entangled with Persia.

Venice might be butterflied, but Justinian's Plague probably won't, and the Lombards are on their way.

What could happen afterwards?
 
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GdwnsnHo

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Assuming a modicum of stability - and that your PoD works, quite a few things could happen.

More manpower = stronger Empire after the Persian wars, and more likely to resist the Caliphate (butterflies willing)

More familiarity with the Goths could lead to an easier integration of any conquests regarding the Ostrogoths.

All in all, Roman Empire is stronger, and likely to continue existing - assuming no idiot decides to start a Frankish version of the Persian Wars.
 
Yeah, *if* the POD works. One thing I see happening is a repetition of sorts of the OTL, where the Goths Just Do Not Give Up and start stirring shit at the Romans' expense - in the OTL they contacted the Franks and the Sassanids to intervene.

And speaking of resistance, I wonder if they come up with a Late Antiquities version of the Brigand Wars that plagued Italy after its unification. Or to put it in a different perspective, a Gothic version of the bagaudae; possible especially if Justinian goes after taxes with a heavy hand - just like he did in OTL.

I don't think that would be enough to save the Goths, but in OTL Persian intervention was one reason among many for the limited resources allocated to Belisarius; and high taxes were one reason among many for the quick disaffection of the Italian population with the Constantinople regime.

On the plus side, we have two competent leaders, Mundus and his sons, survive the wars, Belisarius does not lose the trust of Justinian and, just like GdwnsnHo says, there are plenty of men if the Persians try to pull any trick.
 
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Have the Franks crush the weakenened Ostrogoths could be possible, especially after the Battle of Vouillé, they could add Provence and possibly Podania to their blobbing kingdom.
 
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