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After doing some Research on Ronald Reagan for my ALT 1968 TL, I come across some info on how it really wasn't inevitable for Reagan's 1984 landslide. I know the usual consensus is that no body could beat Reagan in '84...But it appears to me that either himself or the economy could have forced Reagan to go the way of Carter or LBJ.

The "Reagan recession," coupled with budget cuts (which were enacted in 1981 but began to take effect in 1982), led many voters to believe that Reagan was insensitive to the needs of average citizens. Reagan's approval ratings sank. In January 1983, Reagan's popularity rating fell to 35%—approaching levels experienced by Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter at their most unpopular moments. Although his approval rating did not fall as low as Nixon's during Watergate, Reagan's reelection seemed unlikely.

Pressured to counteract the increased deficit caused by the recession, Reagan agreed to a corporate tax increase in 1982. However, he refused to raise income taxes or cut defense spending. The Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 instituted a three-year, $100 billion tax hike—the largest tax increase since World War II.

The 1982 mid-term Congressional elections were largely viewed as a referendum on Reagan and his economic policies. The election results proved to be a major setback for Reagan and the Republicans. The Democrats gained 26 House seats, which at the time was the most for the party in any election since the "Watergate year" of 194. However, the net balance of power in the Senate was unchanged.

The mid-term Congressional elections proved to be the nadir of the Reagan presidency.

A combination of deficit spending and the lowering of interest rates slowly led to economic recovery. From a high of 10.8% in December 1982, unemployment gradually improved until it fell to 7.2% on Election Day in 1984.Nearly two million people left the unemployment rolls. Inflation fell from 10.3% in 1981 to 3.2% in 1983. Corporate earnings rose by 29% in the July-September quarter of 1983, compared with the same period in 1982. Some of the most dramatic improvements came in industries hardest hit by the recession, such as paper and forest products, rubber, airlines, and the auto industry.

By November 1984, voter anger at the recession evaporated and Reagan's re-election was not in doubt. Reagan was subsequently re-elected by a landslide electoral and popular vote margin in the 1984 presidential election.

So what if some of the more crucial pieces for Reagan's economic plan failed and The Recession continues throughout 1983 and most of 1984? With Unemployment still hovering around 10.8% and his Approval rating hovering around 35% does Reagan seek out a second term? Or does he not seek the nomination ala LBJ in '68? If he doesn't does Bush stand any chance of winning the election? How does the Democratic field look in '84? and could a Democratic President in '84 turn the economy back around restore American confidence in itself after four failed Presidency's within a decade? Please discuss
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