WI a primary canidate has greater support, but less seats in a convention?

What precisely would you like me to do? Reagan '76, a deadlocked 1976 RNC, or a deadlocked convention of either party? I'm currently working on something that satisfies one or more of those criteria, but don't expect to see it for a little while.
 
That's if you include Florida and Michigan with their full delegations, which is simply not going to happen. Clinton lost, period.
 

wormyguy

Banned
That's if you include Florida and Michigan with their full delegations, which is simply not going to happen. Clinton lost, period.
Okay - two possible PODs:

1. Obama gets on the ballot in Michigan and/or Florida, but Clinton still wins (she would've won those hypothetical matches).

2. Clinton wins Iowa, costing Obama several states.

As a separate thing, what about Edwards becoming the presumptive nominee, but the sex scandal, complete with love child, breaking shorty before the DNC?
 
Edwards is not going to become the nominee without the use of a few ASBs. Both Obama and Clinton had agreed to stay out of Florida and Michigan because they moved up their primaries in violation of DNC rules and were stripped of their delegates as punishment. If both participate it is an indirect sanction of rule-breaking. If Clinton wins Iowa, she'll probably win the nomination if she handles the newfound cash better and her husband keeps his mouth shut.
 

wormyguy

Banned
Edwards is not going to become the nominee without the use of a few ASBs. Both Obama and Clinton had agreed to stay out of Florida and Michigan because they moved up their primaries in violation of DNC rules and were stripped of their delegates as punishment. If both participate it is an indirect sanction of rule-breaking. If Clinton wins Iowa, she'll probably win the nomination if she handles the newfound cash better and her husband keeps his mouth shut.
Edwards can win Iowa fairly easily, and if either Obama or Clinton has a bad showing (say 4th place) there, he could end up winning the nomination. Obama and Clinton both agreed not to campaign in Florida and Michigan, but that doesn't prevent them from being on the ballot.
 
What could be very interesting is if Obama doesn't enter the race at all. The POD is very easy: Michelle says no in 2006, as she almost did IOTL. In that case this is a straightforward battle between the Democratic left (Edwards) and DLC centre-right (Clinton). Ironically both Clinton and Edwards were planning for such an outcome IOTL, and my money is on Clinton. She'll split or get a plurality of the WWC vote against Edwards and have a lock on both blacks and Hispanics. Rielle Hunter's pregnancy was already underway and once that is revealed shortly after Super Tuesday, Edwards is thermonuked and Clinton wins by default. If Obama comes in third in Iowa behind Clinton and Edwards, then he's in serious trouble.
 
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