Wi a new "Pacific war" between China and USA ?

WarBastard

Banned
Yeah, you have to conside the fact that if China was to do this, it would likely be in the middle of some other crisis that the US was already distracted with.
 
Yeah, you have to conside the fact that if China was to do this, it would likely be in the middle of some other crisis that the US was already distracted with.

What would happen if China prodded N. Korea to action shortly before the Taiwan Operation took place? I'm pretty sure the U.S. sees N. Korea as the greater threat. How would this affect U.S. dispositions?
 
... against whatever fragmentary PLA units survived the crossing, the fighting ashore, and the blockade... it won't be a walkover, but it is a fight the US would win.

Under these circumstances, I wouldn't call it a "successful" invasion, though technically it would be. Your description makes me think of interior resistance beyond the (beaten) armed Taiwanese forces against such a weakened occupation force. Is anybody able to assess the "Taiwanese" mentality in such a case?

What would happen if China prodded N. Korea to action shortly before the Taiwan Operation took place? I'm pretty sure the U.S. sees N. Korea as the greater threat. How would this affect U.S. dispositions?

What a cunning plan. What a recipe for escalation! I think here we are close to a total and/or nuclear war others feared in this thread.

However, I doubt that North Korea would act on accords other than their own. If they start a 2nd Corean War anyways, that's a different thing then.

How about a sellout of Taiwan under such circumstances? The US fights the Corean War and accept Chinese re-unification in a bargain against Corean re-unification.
 

WarBastard

Banned
What would happen if China prodded N. Korea to action shortly before the Taiwan Operation took place? I'm pretty sure the U.S. sees N. Korea as the greater threat. How would this affect U.S. dispositions?

Very interesting idea, and I can imagine some day a sort of quid-pro-quo happening there.
 
Very interesting idea, and I can imagine some day a sort of quid-pro-quo happening there.

I'd think concentrating US assets in the area would be the last thing the PRC would want before trying for Taiwan.

If the US is fighting in Korea, you can be sure there are carriers in the East China Sea. From there, the Taiwan strait isn't a long haul.
 
I'd think concentrating US assets in the area would be the last thing the PRC would want before trying for Taiwan.

If the US is fighting in Korea, you can be sure there are carriers in the East China Sea. From there, the Taiwan strait isn't a long haul.


The consensus on this thread seems to be that U.S. naval forces would immediately rush to the area and be brought to bear before China could conquer Taiwan. If that's going to happen anyways, China (in the context of this alternate universe) might decide that they might as well allow North Korea to foment a crisis (maybe not a resumption of war, but maybe provocation and SEVERE saber-ratting) on the peninsula so as to divide the efforts of the U.S. military -- especially as the U.S. would surely find North Korea to be a greater priority.

There definitely wouldn't be anything formal on the books -- nothing that could lay blame on China. Pyongyang would basically be told through back channels that Beijing wouldn't raise a peep if any questionable actions took place. China, of course, would deny everything afterwards; North Korea would be an unwitting pawn.

This, of course, could lead to an interesting (in the Chinese sense) scenario where North Korea, ever the wild card, could interpret this as tacit Chinese support of a resumed Korean War...and as others said, a classic recipe for escalation.

I was just reminded of this thread because of North Korea's recent actions.
 
The consensus on this thread seems to be that U.S. naval forces would immediately rush to the area and be brought to bear before China could conquer Taiwan. If that's going to happen anyways, China (in the context of this alternate universe) might decide that they might as well allow North Korea to foment a crisis (maybe not a resumption of war, but maybe provocation and SEVERE saber-ratting) on the peninsula so as to divide the efforts of the U.S. military -- especially as the U.S. would surely find North Korea to be a greater priority.

70% of the Earth is covered in water, give or take. The USN has a dozen carriers, give or take, to patrol ALL of that, and several are in port in CONUS at any time. If there's trouble in Korea, a CVBG (or more than one) WILL be sent there. It will then be near enough to Taiwan to interdict the Formosa strait before the PRC could consolidate their hold on Taiwan. The PRC needs all the USN carriers to be busy elsewhere, so that while they will, indeed, HEAD for Taiwan when trouble starts there, they won't REACH it in time.

Yes, the US priority would be Korea. Enough force could handily be spared to hold Taiwan without compromising that; for Taiwan you need the USN. For Korea you need the US Army.
 

pnyckqx

Banned
70% of the Earth is covered in water, give or take. The USN has a dozen carriers, give or take, to patrol ALL of that, and several are in port in CONUS at any time. If there's trouble in Korea, a CVBG (or more than one) WILL be sent there. It will then be near enough to Taiwan to interdict the Formosa strait before the PRC could consolidate their hold on Taiwan. The PRC needs all the USN carriers to be busy elsewhere, so that while they will, indeed, HEAD for Taiwan when trouble starts there, they won't REACH it in time.

Yes, the US priority would be Korea. Enough force could handily be spared to hold Taiwan without compromising that; for Taiwan you need the USN. For Korea you need the US Army.
Logistics.

Given everything to be equal --no point of departure on this timeline has been stated-- we simply can't put more than two Army divisions and one Marine Expeditionary Force into Korea in time for it to have any meaning to the outcome.

With the on-going events in Iraq and Afghanistan, it is doubtful that we can respond to a crisis in Korea at all. Parts of those two army divisions are already deployed and will remain deployed for quite a while. Remember, it took six months to build up forces for Desert Storm, and that was with an army that does not exist today.

The Koreans are on their own unless they accept support from the Japanese military. That has it's own set of consequences and real world difficulties, since the Koreans and Japanese don't exactly love one another. Still, Japan is really pissed off at Kim Jong Il at the moment.

In light of the events of the last Korean War, including by some estimates over 1 million Chinese KIA, the Chinese might be a bit skittish about attempting ground combat. Taking ground won't be anything near as easy as it was in 1951, and the South Korean Army is not the same force that fell apart in 1950.

Protecting Taiwan is a doable mission for the present US military. South Korea is not in the short term.
 
However, Iraq and Afghanistan are different from Korea. If things get hot very quickly, the US can quickly mobilize if needed. Desert Storm was different due to it being a built-up invasion, and an immediate outbreak would not need a build up, as there's a reason why the US Army has reserves.

Logistics aren't that difficult. You have US bases all over the Pacific, SKorea, Taiwan and Japan are US allies, and it's not like these countries will collapse within a month of the outbreak of war, so the US has plenty of time to support Taiwan and SKorea with a rather wide window of opportunity. The 30,000 the US already has in SKorea will be sufficient for a few weeks before the bulk of the US Army arrives, so it's still pretty short term when you think about it.

Everything else depends how advanced China is in ballistic missile tech.
 

loughery111

Banned

Protecting Taiwan is a doable mission for the present US military. South Korea is not in the short term.

Right though you are about our logistical constraints in Korea, we don't really have to protect them. The ROKA as currently constituted is completely capable of REMOVING the KPA from the face of the earth as a coherent fighting force. That Seoul will be trashed in the meantime is an inescapable consequence of geography, but the ROKA can destroy North Korea's ability to fight a war without American help. They're quite arguably as well trained as American troops, better in some areas and instances. Their equipment is fully the equal of ours, and they have some 550,000 men under arms, plus reserves. The PKA, while outnumbering them 2-1, is somewhat like the Iraqi army of 1991 in training, equipment, and doctrine. While terrain features will make it impossible for the ROKA to overrun them in the same fashion the US did the Iraqis in the Gulf War, the differences will be telling nonetheless. Korea needs little babysitting, aside from a carrier group on hand to make sure that the PRC doesn't decide to intervene (they would be STUPID to do so, but who knows?)
 
Given everything to be equal --no point of departure on this timeline has been stated-- we simply can't put more than two Army divisions and one Marine Expeditionary Force into Korea in time for it to have any meaning to the outcome.

Where on Earth did you get this idea?

For that matter, are you counting the division the US already has in Korea?

Prior poster(s) are correct that S. Korea wouldn't need much help defending itself against just N. Korea (again, remember there's a fair bit on the ground there already, and more nearby). Of course, this thread is about the PRC vs. the US... and S. Korea wouldn't be able to stand off the PLA without a lot of help. OTOH, the entire PLA can't simply teleport to the DMZ. Logistics, as you stated. The PLA can't move to the DMZ much faster than the US Army can.
 

loughery111

Banned
Where on Earth did you get this idea?

For that matter, are you counting the division the US already has in Korea?

Prior poster(s) are correct that S. Korea wouldn't need much help defending itself against just N. Korea (again, remember there's a fair bit on the ground there already, and more nearby). Of course, this thread is about the PRC vs. the US... and S. Korea wouldn't be able to stand off the PLA without a lot of help. OTOH, the entire PLA can't simply teleport to the DMZ. Logistics, as you stated. The PLA can't move to the DMZ much faster than the US Army can.

The ROKA cannot stand off the whole PLA, no... but the Chinese cannot loan more than a few hundred thousand or so to the DPRK without seriously impairing their efforts to keep an eye on the rest of the country. And those would by no means be the best few hundred thousand. If they were loaned at all. I just cannot see the PRC sending troops into Korea to fight against a first-world army when they just got into a shooting war with the biggest military power in the world and need to not only garrison their coast, but guard their border with India and invade Taiwan at the same time.
 

pnyckqx

Banned
Where on Earth did you get this idea?

For that matter, are you counting the division the US already has in Korea?

Prior poster(s) are correct that S. Korea wouldn't need much help defending itself against just N. Korea (again, remember there's a fair bit on the ground there already, and more nearby). Of course, this thread is about the PRC vs. the US... and S. Korea wouldn't be able to stand off the PLA without a lot of help. OTOH, the entire PLA can't simply teleport to the DMZ. Logistics, as you stated. The PLA can't move to the DMZ much faster than the US Army can.
The US does not have a Division in Korea. There is one combat brigade of the Second Infantry Division, and a combat Aviation brigade. There is also an independent support brigade available. Other Eighth Army combat units exist only on paper. Another brigade of Second Infantry is already deployed in Afghanistan. Most of the Second Infantry Division is stationed at Ft. Lewis, Washington.

The other units that would deploy would be 25th Light Infantry out of Hawaii, and the 3rd MEF on Okinawa.

Both of those divisions also have units involved in Afghanistan, and one brigade of the 25th is currently stationed in Alaska, --their Airborne Brigade.

We don't have the horses to get it done in Korea on the ground.

They don't really need us. Quite a bit of that open country that got over run in the Korean war is now a built up area. No way DPRK tank armies are going to get through that rubble with anything near a combat effective force. When they get stalled outside those areas, air power will eat them alive. If i'm in a T-55 stalled outside Uijumbu, the last thing i want to see coming at me is a flight of A-10 Warthogs. Hell, it would probably be the last thing any of them see, assuming they're still alive when they're in visual range.

Korea doesn't need a carrier. There is already a carrier within range. It's called Japan, and the pilots of the 'air group' are US Air Force, not US Navy, although there are also Naval Air stations there.

The PLA runs into the same problem that the DPRK troops do, they're forced to fight in built up areas without air superiority. Not a good idea.

If a deal can be cut with the Japanese, it could get pretty ugly for the PLA and the DPRK, but again, i'm understating the difficulties between the Koreans and the Japanese.
 
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