WI: A neutral Romania in WW2

Ok, so basically, King Carol II of Romania had used much of the 30's to sabotage all of the democratic parties and subverted democracy to the point where he and his movement where the only legitimate political force. Any opposition was either subjugated (the democratic parties) or violently purged (the fascist Iron Guard).

OTL, this did him no good in the end since the Soviet Union, Hungary and Bulgaria took for themselves bit and pieces of the country, and his popularity plummeted. The military and the fascists took over after he abdicated, with the military under Antonescu eventually getting rid of the the nazi look-alike's of Horia Sima.

But, what if he decided opposing foreign aggression was the only way to save himself ?
Specifically, he tells Hitler (as convincingly as possible) that if he continue's to push for Hungary to get a slice of Transilvania, Romania will fight. And not only that, it'll keep fighting till the bitter end, and also blow up all the oil refineries and oil extraction facilities.

However, if he (Hitler) backs off and tells Hungary and Bulgaria to do the same, he can have all the oil he wants in return for bits of technology and discounted prices.

Would this bluff work ? Would Hitler risk attacking Romania, because, if he does and the oil rigs go up in flames, it'll be years before production is back up again, meaning no Barbarossa?

What butterflies can we expect if Hitler doesn't call Carol's bluff and respects Romania's neutrality in return for oil ?
 
Hi Magnum,once i cache a bit of a tv program,the guest was Dinu C. Giurescu,he was said something like: Carol try to get a deal with the allies,in exchange for blowing up the oli rafienires and wells,Romania will be include in the allies cap. and Hitler find about it.
So i thing you will need Carol not to do that at least
Ro could get a better deal,to keep Transylvania,you also need a better relation with Germany and Austria prior to that, earlier the better.
Maniu Danubian Confederation cloud be a starting point.Basically it supposed to be a kind of EU formed from counties of the former AH,it should include Czechoslovakia ,Hungary,Romania,Yugoslavia,and Germany and Italy,will get a special dell wit it Romania,Hungary, Yugoslavia weer spouse to provided the agriculture bit and Czechoslovakia, and Austria the industrial bit,First sings of is plan date as early as 1924 conference on minorities,he tried something about it once i got in power,basically get a meting between Yogo,Cze and Rom,the deal got torpedo by the Eduard Benes,at the pressure for agrarian interest in Czechoslovakia.You cloud have a pod Romania tray to get a deal with Austria,if you got a deal with Austria,it is possible to get one with Hungary ( Hungary wounded be want to be left alone),and so on.Even if you only get a deal with Austria,and maybe Germany,it will probably be enough to move Hitler in favor of Romania in the Transylvania problem,and south Dobruja,as for USSR , i don't see a way round it,except Romania fights the soviets and wins,you have to remember that Germany will not protect Romania,while France is alive an kicking,so Ro as to fight the soviets till the Barbarossa alone.
 
Wouldn't this just end with a Iron Guard coup?


It could, but I seriously doubt it could be successfull.

In September 1939, Carol II had the Iron Guard's mesianic leader C.Z.Codreanu and more than 500 other members assasinated and their bodies on public display for 3 days.

Following this, the movement split between two camps, and it wasn't untill Sima (the leader of one of these camps) outmaneuvered Carol following the territorial losses that the Iron Guard was finally reunited.

Also, they did launch a coup OTL, against Antonescu, and they weren't very succesfull with it, ending up crushed by the army.

So given these (Carol and his security services having cracked down on them once before, the movement being split and having proven unable to launch a propper coup OTL) I doubt they would have much success even if they tried.
 
Neither the Axis nor the USSR would have any interest in respecting Romanian neutrality.


step 1: Russia gets Bessarabia and Bukovina.
step 2 : Germany and Hungary pressure Romania for parts of Transilvania
step 3: Carol threatens to blow up oil industry and fight
step 4: Hitler decides what to do: Invade or negotiate ?

Invading risks loosing any chance to launch Barbarossa.
Negotiating only risks alienating the Hungarians.
A coup by the Iron Guard is unlikely to succeed.

What do you think he would choose ? Invade ?
 
Ar the Germans capable of a airborne assault ? ,if yes a thing it will invade,And by the way more frightening for Hitler will be the perspective of Soviets get in on the action and capture the oil fields then the treats of Romania blowing them up.
 
Ar the Germans capable of a airborne assault ? ,if yes a thing it will invade,And by the way more frightening for Hitler will be the perspective of Soviets get in on the action and capture the oil fields then the treats of Romania blowing them up.
Wait, why is airborne assault a decisive factor?
 
Speed, Germany would have to get to the oil fields PDQ in the event of an assault otherwise as people have said the fields would be blown sky high. I doubt Hitler would risk it however, no matter how nutty he might have been he won't risk his only oil supply, especially during the war and with Barbarossa on the table. They'll do a deal, probably with Hitler making a note to "deal" with Romania after he wins the war.

Post war might get interesting, after all Russia can't really risk attacking Romania in this timeline epecially if Romania turns around and declares war on Hitler once the writing is on the wall. That in turn might keep the Russians out of Bulgaria (as well as keep Bulgaria out of the war if Romania is neutral rather than Axis). That in turn could leave the southern Balkan's outside the Russian sphere post war. (I mean as long as Romania stops selling the Nazi's oil when things get bad, the Russians would have a hard time justifying an attack on a neutral country, unlike the rest of eastern Europe which they were either at war with already, or working to "liberate")
 
Russians will have no problem in invading a neutral country, invading after the end of the war and the beginning of the cold war,yes they will have a problem.
And will Germans not occupy Romania if Romania stops oil flow to them ?
Romania saw the writing on the wall after Stalingrad.
And if you want an neutral Balkan peninsula you have to options ether the allies decided that they need it and convince Stalin, that after the war it shall remain in the allies sphere of influence, or Romania resist several attempts by the soviets,they the Soviets decide that it can't wait,till after the Germans ar defeated.it will help if the delay the decision to invade till after the start of the cold war in mean time depending on how smart ar the nations in the Balkans they join the allies
 
I think such a stance by King Carol would be very risky. High likelihood of failure. It would need to be based on the idea that Germany - in Summer 1940 - was bound to lose and therefore he could defy Hitler impunity. Otherwise, any defiance shown now would be met with severe consequences later when Hitler was not otherwise engaged. Carol would have to believe that not only would Britain hold out, that Hitler would attack the Soviet Union, and that the US would enter the war. Although the correct guess, this would be extremely risky at a time when France has fallen, a cross-Channel invasion appears imminent, and Stalin & Hitler are good buddies.


Despite that unlikelihood, I'll go with the POD.


Although King Carol can't know this, Hitler wants that oil secure for the invasion of the Soviet Union next year. Rather than risk it being blown up, he probably accepts King Carol's demand for now. He probably intends to throw Romania to the wolves after the Soviet Union collapses, but that is OK. The problem though in Hungary. The Vienna Awards was done to prevent Hungary from going to war with Romania. If Hitler stops Hungary, he probably needs to give them something - at the very least some promise that after the war is over, he'll support ALL their claims to Hungary.


In addition, Hitler planned on using Romania as a base to invade the Soviet Union. This is also of huge importance if Barbarossa is to succeed. At the very least, Romania will need to give the Germans transit rights. He may also need to allow Romanian volunteers to join the Germans in the invasion - probably packing up the Iron Guard and get them out of the country like what Franco would do with the Blue Division. This will be the major sticking point. Allowing transit rights would greatly damage Romanian neutrality and make it more likely the Germans will attempt a coup. Can something be worked out? Perhaps the Romanians agree to German troops only entering the border territories to "protect the integrity of their borders" but keep them out of the rest of the country. Lots of war supplies would still be allowed to transit as normal. So it might be a workable solution. If Carol just refuses outright, Hitler invades, gives all of Transylvania to Hungary and chops up Romania.


The next question is what happens with Italy. The Balkans - including Romania - was supposed to be Italy's sphere of influence. Mussolini had intended to move into the Balkans, but Hitler asked him to not do that in order to keep peace in the Balkans and protect the oil supply. It was moving German troops into Romania "to protect Romania's territorial integrity" after the Vienna Awards, but without Hitler explaining to Mussolini the reason was to attack the Soviets, that incensed Mussolini that Hitler was just being a jerk and squeezing him out of an area already assigned to him. That's what caused him to order an immediate attack on Greece to show Hitler up that he could do whatever he wanted. So depending on what happens in Romania and what Hitler tells Mussolini beforehand, Italy may never declare war on Greece in a pique.

If there is no war in Greece, there may never be war in Yugoslavia, and the entire Balkans will escape the war. Everything depends on the individual decisions taken at each step of the way.


Of course, regardless of how many Balkan countries are neutral, the next major change is the end game of the war. The countries either remain neutral throughout the war and escape Soviet occupation, or join the Allies at the end to make sure the Red Army doesn't occupy them. If Romania was forced to give transit rights, it'll probably need to do so. They might also try to occupy Bessarabia before the Red Army in order reclaim that territory. If so, I hope they have the British and US already supporting them to do the diplomatic heavy lifting with the Soviets.

If Romania avoids occupation, then Bulgaria will avoid occupation as well regardless if they joined the Axis or not. They'll have time to defect to the Allies before the Red Army could possibly occupy them. For Yugoslavia, we'll need to determine if it was invaded or occupied or not. If so, obviously partisan operations happen. But with Romania neutral, the Chetniks might not be entirely abandoned. Interesting postwar possibilities.


In the end, the Soviet occupations would be limited to northern Eastern Europe. If Romania enters the war, it's possible that some of Hungary might escape occupation, but I suspect the Red Army will be able to occupy the country before the Romanians. Limiting the Soviet occupation on only a handful of countries will focus the Western Allies on Soviet actions in Poland.
 
Post war might get interesting, after all Russia can't really risk attacking Romania in this timeline especially if Romania turns around and declares war on Hitler once the writing is on the wall.
The Soviets could point to the fact that Romania was Germany's main source of oil and had done a roaring trade with them, plus if the Romanians change sides towards the ends I could see the Soviets invading to pre-empt a supposedly planned German attack/coup to deny it to the enemy. Everyone would know that it's complete rubbish but considering what the Allies did in Iran it would provide them with the slenderest of diplomatic fig leafs to hide behind.
 
Fair point, I guess it will come down to what state the soviets are in at the end of the war, if they can spare the manpower they might go after the balkans. Maybe some sort of finland deal, (neutral, independent, non-alighned) after all romania isn't a main enemy, the black sea coast is a bit out of the way, and Stalins got bigger fish to fry.
 
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